WRF-ARW forecast for Ernesto

[Typhoon]

I know that the model consensus has shifted dramatically to the right, but it's worth looking at the WRF-ARW hurricane model. This model will eventually replace the GFDL. During the 2005 hurricane season, the WRF-ARW 12-km hurricane model was tested during Katrina, Maria, Ophelia, Rita, and Wilma. It was the most accurate model at 48h and beyond for intensity forecasts and at 72h and beyond for track forecasts.

At 48h, the 12z WRF-ARW has Ernesto at 998mb very near the Cuban coastline. This model seems to pick up on the more northerly component of Ernesto's motion that is happening right now. However, at 120h, it shows Ernesto as a 968mb hurricane moving into the Western Gulf. In this forecast, Ernesto is not even at 25N when it passes the longitude of New Orleans.

[Bailey1777]

Now that is the real deal right there folks.

[Derek Ortt]

that is very interesting

High resolution models do tend to do the best in terms of heading. We found during RAINEX that we can have trouble with forward speed though (we used MM5 at 15km resolution for a 200X300 domain)

[Normandy]

It is very interesting, but I dont think Ernesto will be that far south when it passes NOLA (or if it does, to make the "N movement camp" happy)

[Extremeweatherguy]

this will be replacing the GFDL? Well if that is the case, then yes this really does look interesting.

[Portastorm]

Sheesh ... now I don't know what to believe ...

[Brent]

That's very interesting. Hmmmm....

[jwayne]

did this model run just come out in the last hour or so?

[PTrackerLA]

That's interesting. Wonder what this model sees that the others don't.

[Winsurfer]

Look at the graph it is 12Z

[Derek Ortt]

what this model has is a 12km resolution throughout the ENTIRE domain, unlike the other models. This means that the troughs and ridges are far better resolved by this model than anything else

[LaBreeze]

Even with a high pressure building over E.Tex and a front coming down?? I just don't see this change taking place - but hey, I'm not a professional.

[PTrackerLA]

I'd bet the next run shows a more eastern gulf solution. I did not realize it was from 8am.

[Portastorm]

Hey Typhoon ... thanks for posting this info and model map. Has given us some pause this evening. If you can post the 0z run, I bet all of us would really appreciate it!

Derek's point about its resolution over the entire domain is something worth considering. Given its record last year ... and what y'all have been saying about it, this next run will really have my attention!

[Portastorm]

I don't want to be mean to Texans here...but this would seem so much more 'fair' haha...why? Due to the plain fact that the rest of the gulfcoast has had a major hurricane effect them directly over the last few years except for South Texas.

This post sounds pretty morbid and dark but I mean, any place but the NCGC is only fair...but then, mother nature is rarely fair.

k e v i n . c h o
naples, fl

What the heck does THIS mean??

[Rainband]

Now that is the real deal right there folks.

Do you realize how your posts make you look like you want this storm??

[LaBreeze]

I'm thinking the same thing PTrackerLA. I have a strong feeling that Ernesto is not a storm we'll be dealing with - too soon to say that it's looking better for us?? Whatcha think?

[webke]

Hi Typhoon,
Can you post a link you the website you are getting thes graphics from.
Thanks!

[hicksta]

Bro, no offense, id rather see it heading in the other dirrection not towards us. You can tell you'v never been threw a storm

Now that is the real deal right there folks.

[Stratosphere747]

Run the loop and look where it was initialized…;)