TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

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Extremeweatherguy
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#281 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:41 pm

jwayne wrote:
Furious George wrote:Wow, the GFDL run is really slowing down at the end. 4.5 knots due north.


didn't it shift back west quite a bit also?
yes it did.

The latest GFDL is within this image and really does slow it down toward the end:

Image
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Derek Ortt

#282 Postby Derek Ortt » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:41 pm

that run seems more in line with reality, though the initial NNW heading sure does not
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#283 Postby hurricanesfans27 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:42 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Holy crap..so now Pensacola is right int he middle! :eek:



yup right in the middle and im on the wrong side of the storm. guess ft walton niceville destin gets to rebuild again. i hope they are wrong again.
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#284 Postby Rainband » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:42 pm

canegrl04 wrote:Ernesto is going to hit anywhere from NOLA to Alabama .My local met mentioned the fact that Ernesto will take water from Lake Poncetrane and dump it on New Orleans if curves east of the city
Can I borrow your crystal Ball. Play Lotto tonight ok. :lol:
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#285 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:43 pm

hurricanesfans27 wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Holy crap..so now Pensacola is right int he middle! :eek:



yup right in the middle and im on the wrong side of the storm. guess ft walton niceville destin gets to rebuild again. i hope they are wrong again.
no they are not right in the middle. At the end of the run, the GFDL still has the storm hundreds of miles off the coast south of MS/AL.
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#286 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:43 pm

Ok I have been away for a while and come back with this staring me in the face....what made my area the target all of a sudden?
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#287 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:44 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Ok I have been away for a while and come back with this staring me in the face....what made my area the target all of a sudden?


Relocation of the center to the NE. They may very well go back west...
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#288 Postby hurricanesfans27 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:44 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
hurricanesfans27 wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Holy crap..so now Pensacola is right int he middle! :eek:



yup right in the middle and im on the wrong side of the storm. guess ft walton niceville destin gets to rebuild again. i hope they are wrong again.
no they are not right in the middle. At the end of the run, the GFDL still has the storm hundreds of miles off the coast south of MS/AL.



they said that about ivan as well. guess where it ended up
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#289 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:44 pm

oh yeah...the GFDL is also now left of the 5pm NHC track. Wouldn't be surprised if this keeps the NHC holding steady or shifting back west slightly at 11pm.
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#290 Postby Grease Monkey » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:44 pm

Is it possible that hitting land mass can cause a sudden change in direction of a system because I remember hearing something like that before?
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#291 Postby cmdebbie » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:45 pm

LaBreeze wrote:cmdebbie, when you mentioned that it was "anybody's ballgame", did you mean anybody in the northcentral to eastern GOM right? Certainly not here in the northwest and west GOM?


I meant anywhere from the Western Gulf to the Eastern Gulf or anything in between; however, if I were to predict, I would say between the Northcentral to the Big Bend area.....but I know nothing. I just think everyone needs to stay aware.
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#292 Postby Ivanhater » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:45 pm

Brent wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Ok I have been away for a while and come back with this staring me in the face....what made my area the target all of a sudden?


Relocation of the center to the NE. They may very well go back west...


God I hope so!...I'm shaking now with this showing a major hurricane right in my area....what a shock
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#293 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:45 pm

hurricanesfans27 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
hurricanesfans27 wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Holy crap..so now Pensacola is right int he middle! :eek:



yup right in the middle and im on the wrong side of the storm. guess ft walton niceville destin gets to rebuild again. i hope they are wrong again.
no they are not right in the middle. At the end of the run, the GFDL still has the storm hundreds of miles off the coast south of MS/AL.



they said that about ivan as well. guess where it ended up
I am not saying this won't hit pensacola, I am just saying the latest GFDL does not have this hitting Pensacola.
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#294 Postby Rainband » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:45 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:oh yeah...the GFDL is also now left of the 5pm NHC track. Wouldn't be surprised if this keeps the NHC holding steady or shifting back west slightly at 11pm.
I agree right towards Spring Texas. :lol:
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#295 Postby Noles2006 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:46 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:that run seems more in line with reality, though the initial NNW heading sure does not


Yes, but it corrects itself by moving west for a bit.
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#296 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:47 pm

Rainband wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:oh yeah...the GFDL is also now left of the 5pm NHC track. Wouldn't be surprised if this keeps the NHC holding steady or shifting back west slightly at 11pm.
I agree right towards Spring Texas. :lol:


:roflmao:!!!!!
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#297 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:47 pm

Rainband wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:oh yeah...the GFDL is also now left of the 5pm NHC track. Wouldn't be surprised if this keeps the NHC holding steady or shifting back west slightly at 11pm.
I agree right towards Spring Texas. :lol:
:lol: well I hope not, but considering that the GFDL is one of the NHC top models, I think a scarier looking path for N.O. may be back in the works by 11pm or 5am tomorrow.
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#298 Postby Noles2006 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:47 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:oh yeah...the GFDL is also now left of the 5pm NHC track. Wouldn't be surprised if this keeps the NHC holding steady or shifting back west slightly at 11pm.


The GFDL appears to be getting to shift to the NE [if the curve keeps continuing... it's moving slighty east of north at the last point].
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#299 Postby hurricanesfans27 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:47 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
hurricanesfans27 wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:
hurricanesfans27 wrote:
Ivanhater wrote:Holy crap..so now Pensacola is right int he middle! :eek:



yup right in the middle and im on the wrong side of the storm. guess ft walton niceville destin gets to rebuild again. i hope they are wrong again.
no they are not right in the middle. At the end of the run, the GFDL still has the storm hundreds of miles off the coast south of MS/AL.



they said that about ivan as well. guess where it ended up
I am not saying this won't hit pensacola, I am just saying the latest GFDL does not have this hitting Pensacola.



i hope youre right i dont feel like being a fema client this year AGAIN
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Opal storm

#300 Postby Opal storm » Sat Aug 26, 2006 6:48 pm

Ivanhater wrote:Ok I have been away for a while and come back with this staring me in the face....what made my area the target all of a sudden?
lol,doesn't that NHC track look so familar? :D
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