WRF-ARW forecast for Ernesto

[weathernic]

Here's the WRF url.

http://wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_hurricane12.php


Nic

[Portastorm]

Run the loop and look where it was initialized…;)

I'm having a problem loading the loop ... spell it out for me: bad initialization?

[Typhoon]

Here's what it forecasted for 00z (about right now). I'd say that this model was initialized quite well and is doing a good job in the short term.

[jwayne]

I looked at the loop. Looked reasonable so far. Am I missing something?

[Extremeweatherguy]

Here's what it forecasted for 00z (about right now). I'd say that this model was initialized quite well and is doing a good job in the short term.

Your right. This is almost a perfect initialization. It even has the pressure at 997mb like it should be.

[Typhoon]

Run the loop and look where it was initialized…;)

I'm having a problem loading the loop ... spell it out for me: bad initialization?

Did you select a field when you tried to load the loop? Click on the "Surface" dropdown box and select "SLP and Surface Temperature". Now does the loop work for you?

[PTrackerLA]

I'm thinking the same thing PTrackerLA. I have a strong feeling that Ernesto is not a storm we'll be dealing with - too soon to say that it's looking better for us?? Whatcha think?

It's looking better, but I don't think we're totally in the clear. I want to see what happens with the track and what the models show in the next 24 hours.

[Stratosphere747]

Run the loop and look where it was initialized…;)

I'm having a problem loading the loop ... spell it out for me: bad initialization?

The loop that I ran much earlier today, had it initialized at its location from 11pm yesterday. Had the same track it's showing now. I admit that I have not ran anything for awhile.

[jhamps10]

wow that is some good forecasting, just about perfect spot at this time. I'm really impressed with this.

[Portastorm]

Run the loop and look where it was initialized…;)

I'm having a problem loading the loop ... spell it out for me: bad initialization?

The loop that I ran much earlier today, had it initialized at its location from 11pm yesterday. Had the same track it's showing now. I admit that I have not ran anything for awhile.

Got it now, thanks so much!!

[ROCK]

Is this model run off off the NAM or similar? I ask this as the 18UTC NAM shows a western approach as well.....yes, I know the NAM is worthless in the tropics but it did pick up ALberto quite well.....please dont flame me...thanks....I love you all.....

[jwayne]

Is this model run off off the NAM or similar? I ask this as the 18UTC NAM shows a western approach as well.....yes, I know the NAM is worthless in the tropics but it did pick up ALberto quite well.....please dont flame me...thanks....I love you all.....

got a link?

[ROCK]

man, you people wanting links...here ya go...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

[Portastorm]

Is this model run off off the NAM or similar? I ask this as the 18UTC NAM shows a western approach as well.....yes, I know the NAM is worthless in the tropics but it did pick up ALberto quite well.....please dont flame me...thanks....I love you all.....

Yeah dude, just saw that. Did you check out the 500 mb chart? It shows a very stout ridge from Texas east across the FL peninsula into the SW Atlantic at 84 hrs.

I don't know what's right but I do know that flies in the face of most of the other modeling.

[jwayne]

man, you people wanting links...here ya go...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _084.shtml

sorry to trouble you.

[ROCK]

Is this model run off off the NAM or similar? I ask this as the 18UTC NAM shows a western approach as well.....yes, I know the NAM is worthless in the tropics but it did pick up ALberto quite well.....please dont flame me...thanks....I love you all.....

Yeah dude, just saw that. Did you check out the 500 mb chart? It shows a very stout ridge from Texas east across the FL peninsula into the SW Atlantic at 84 hrs.

I don't know what's right but I do know that flies in the face of most of the other modeling.

yes sir, it does.......tomorrow runs of both of these models will be interesting to see...


its cool, JWayno....given you rooks a hard time thats all...

[Stratosphere747]

I'm not a singular model person, and this one is an outlier for now.

I'll give it a few benchmarks and see where it is at relative to Jamaica and Cuba. Otherwise, I'd take it with a grain of salt...

[ROCK]

I'm not a singular model person, and this one is an outlier for now.

I'll give it a few benchmarks and see where it is at relative to Jamaica and Cuba. Otherwise, I'd take it with a grain of salt...

oh, I know niether am I just pointing at something interesting. It will probably swing back to the east in tomorrow runs....

[bayoubebe]

So, for us simpletons, what does this mean exactly?

Where will it hit according to THIS model at landfall for the US?

[Stratosphere747]

It just has a rather huge westward bias towards the latter part of the run. Heading more toward NE Mexico/S Texas.

As of now, I would not put much faith into it...