TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread XI (#11)

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Extremeweatherguy
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#321 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:00 pm

TampaFl wrote:EWG, with the GFDL shifting slighty west on the latest run, do you think the other dynamical models will follow?. IMHO I think the NHC will leave the track basiclly the same for the 11PM package. Now 5:00AM Sunday may show a change. Time will tell.


Robert 8-)
That's what I think too. They will probably not change it or only slightly change it at 11am, and then possibly change it more east or west at 5am depending on what the 0z models do.
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#322 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:00 pm

Lets wait for the 00z runs of the globals and the GFDL before making much of the 18z.
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Buck
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#323 Postby Buck » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:01 pm

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 26, 2006



...Outer rainbands of Ernesto about to move over Hispaniola...very
heavy rains possible...

a Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the provinces of Las
Tunas...Granma...Holguin...Santiago de Cuba...and Guantanamo in
eastern Cuba. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions
are possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning is recommended for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona to the Dominican Republic-Haiti
border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area within the next 24
hours.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the South Coast of
Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to the
southwestern tip of Haiti.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Jamaica.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...Cuba...
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...the Florida Keys...
and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...should monitor the progress
of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
located near latitude 16.5 north...longitude 72.2 west or about
145 miles...235 km...south-southeast of Port au Prince Haiti and
about 310 miles...455 km...east-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Ernesto is moving toward the west-northwest near 14 mph...22 km/hr
...And this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24
hours. This motion should bring the center near the South Coast of
Hispaniola tonight and near Jamaica on Sunday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph...95 km/hr...with
higher gusts. Some additional strengthening is forecast during the
next 24 hours...and Ernesto could be near hurricane strength as it
approaches Jamaica and western Haiti on Sunday.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 90 miles...150 km
from the center.

The minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane hunter was
997 mb...29.44 inches.

Tides of up to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected on Jamaica
and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti as the center of Ernesto
approaches.

Rainfall amounts of 4 to 8 inches...with possible isolated maximum
amounts of 12 inches...are expected in association with Ernesto
across portions of Jamaica. Rainfall amounts of 8 to 12 inches...
with possible isolated maximum amounts of up to 20 inches in higher
terrain...across Haiti and the Dominican Republic. These rains
could cause life-threatening flash floods and mud slides.
Also...the outer bands of Ernesto may produce 1 to 3 inch rainfall
amounts across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands.

Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...16.5 N...72.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 14 mph. Maximum sustained winds...60
mph. Minimum central pressure...997 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Knabb/Mainelli
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#324 Postby hurricanesfans27 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:02 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:
cmdebbie wrote:"I am not saying this won't hit pensacola, I am just saying the latest GFDL does not have this hitting Pensacola"

the latest GFDL does not have this hitting anywhere yet!
exactly.



just a small problem of it being almost due south of Mobile Bay and heading due north at that time. not a good feeling for panhandlers
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#325 Postby johngaltfla » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:02 pm

Interesting how the models are everywhere, the VDMs are causing mass confusion with the forecasts (and wishcasts for that matter) and now the 2000 advisory is late. Ernesto I think is just a test drive for next month when it gets really busy....

:eek:
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#326 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:04 pm

its good we have recon there. Based on the SAT pics and all the shear its hard to tell where it is even going.......the shear is definitely complicating things.
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#327 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:04 pm

SouthFloridawx wrote:
cmdebbie wrote:"I am not saying this won't hit pensacola, I am just saying the latest GFDL does not have this hitting Pensacola"

the latest GFDL does not have this hitting anywhere yet!

Image


AH! I keep seeing this map. What is it? All I see is lines over Mexico.
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NW heading

#328 Postby Vortex » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:05 pm

Since this afternoon Ernesto continues a NW movement based on advisory plots.

5 pm:
15.9n 71.6w

8 pm
Location: 16.5N 72.2W
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#329 Postby TheShrimper » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:06 pm

.6N ....6W= NW
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#330 Postby Myersgirl » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:06 pm

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:
cmdebbie wrote:"I am not saying this won't hit pensacola, I am just saying the latest GFDL does not have this hitting Pensacola"

the latest GFDL does not have this hitting anywhere yet!

Image


AH! I keep seeing this map. What is it? All I see is lines over Mexico.

You may need a geography lesson :roll:
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#331 Postby mtm4319 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:06 pm

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:AH! I keep seeing this map. What is it? All I see is lines over Mexico.


It's the model map for Ernesto. Hit refresh on this page and you might see the most recent version.
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#332 Postby Furious George » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:06 pm

5 PM Coordinates

INITIAL 26/2100Z 15.9N 71.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 16.8N 73.3W 50 KT

8 PM it's at 16.5N 72.2 W

Likely path may be closer the the islands to the north.
Last edited by Furious George on Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#333 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:06 pm

Stormcenter wrote:
ronjon wrote:Does anyone notice that not one global model really intensifies this storm in the GOM? Seems strange to me - why?


Unfavorable conditions maybe?



even the discussion said that they have no idea why the models didn't strengthen it any further as the NHC can't see any factors that will inhibit strengthening
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#334 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:06 pm

The red line on here is the GFDL. It will give those a hard time finding it in the other image an easier time:

Image
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#335 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:07 pm

Myersgirl wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:
cmdebbie wrote:"I am not saying this won't hit pensacola, I am just saying the latest GFDL does not have this hitting Pensacola"

the latest GFDL does not have this hitting anywhere yet!

Image


AH! I keep seeing this map. What is it? All I see is lines over Mexico.

You may need a geography lesson :roll:


Uhh. Excuse me? Seriously.. All I see is lines over Mexico. I know where Mexico is!
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#336 Postby Myersgirl » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:08 pm

all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:
Myersgirl wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:
cmdebbie wrote:"I am not saying this won't hit pensacola, I am just saying the latest GFDL does not have this hitting Pensacola"

the latest GFDL does not have this hitting anywhere yet!

Image


AH! I keep seeing this map. What is it? All I see is lines over Mexico.

You may need a geography lesson :roll:


Uhh. Excuse me? Seriously.. All I see is lines over Mexico. I know where Mexico is!

thats Cuba
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#337 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:08 pm

All we know, stop quoting the page with the map please...I have seen it 5 times already...thank you....
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#338 Postby Noles2006 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:09 pm

Furious George wrote:5 PM Coordinates

INITIAL 26/2100Z 15.9N 71.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 27/0600Z 16.8N 73.3W 50 KT

8 PM it's at 16.5N 72.2 W

Likely path may be closer the the island to the north.


Eh, it looks like it's on the projected path [maybe even slightly north] at this point to me...
So, in 12 hours, it was projected to go .9N and 1.7W and it has moved .6N and .6W....
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#339 Postby all_we_know_is_FALLING » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:09 pm

Myersgirl wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:
Myersgirl wrote:
all_we_know_is_FALLING wrote:
SouthFloridawx wrote:
cmdebbie wrote:"I am not saying this won't hit pensacola, I am just saying the latest GFDL does not have this hitting Pensacola"

the latest GFDL does not have this hitting anywhere yet!



AH! I keep seeing this map. What is it? All I see is lines over Mexico.

You may need a geography lesson :roll:


Uhh. Excuse me? Seriously.. All I see is lines over Mexico. I know where Mexico is!

thats Cuba


Haha. You guys probably think I'm crazy.
I swear, on my comp it is over Mexico. The yellow one ends up in SoCal.
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#340 Postby SouthFloridawx » Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:10 pm

You may need a geography lesson Rolling Eyes

Entertain the fact he may have something wrong with what he is seeing before you are mean to people.


Uhh. Excuse me? Seriously.. All I see is lines over Mexico. I know where Mexico is!


Here is the link where you can get the image. You may need to refresh it... the last storm that was a storm that went to mexico. Sometimes those graphics stay and you just have to refresh the screen.

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots.html
Last edited by SouthFloridawx on Sat Aug 26, 2006 7:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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