Typhoon Ioke Thread #2

[clfenwi]

With both CPHC and AFWA going with 7.0/7.0 estimates it is inded likely that it will be a cat 5 again on the next advisory....

TXPN40 PHFO 270018
TCSCP

CENTRAL PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY - FIXES
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI
0015 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006

HURRICANE IOKE LOCATED AT 17.9N 178.7W AT 26/2330 UTC BASED ON GOES
11 AND MTSTAT 2 KM IR RESOLUTIONS SECTOR IMAGERY AND ANIMATION.
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM. ESTIMATED MAXIMUM 1 MINUTE MEAN WIND
SPEED 140 KT. MOVEMENT ESTIMATED TOWARDS 245 DEGREES AT 13 KT OVER
THE PAST 6 HOURS. DIAMETER OF EYE IS 20 NM.

T7.0/7.0/D0.5/24 HOURS

REMARKS...POSITION BASED ON BOTH GOES 11 AND MTSTAT IMAGERY. EYE
SURROUNDED BY WHITE RING RESULTING IN CF OF 6.0. EYE ADJUSTMENT ADDS
.5...RESULTING IN A CF AND DT OF 6.5. MET IS 7.0...PT IS 6.5. FT
BASED ON MET. AODT YIELDS 6.9.

$$

-----------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TPPZ1 KGWC 270001
A. HURRICANE IOKE (01C)
B. 26/2331Z (67)
C. 17.9N/7
D. 178.6W/6
E. TWO/MTSAT
F. T7.0/7.0/D1.5/24HRS/ -26/2331Z-
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

07A/ PBO 21NM EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED
BY A 50NM WHT BAND GIVING AN EYE NUMBER OF 6.0.
ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJ GIVING A DT OF 7.0. FT
BASED ON DT. PT AND MET AGREE.

AODT: 7.0(CLR EYE)

LONG

[CrazyC83]

Did anyone see the latest GFDL run?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

864mb and 182kt (210mph) = that is pushing the limits of physics...

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Wow this storm looks about 150 knots right now. This thing is cooking!!!

[Scorpion]

Jesus...864 mb. This is incredible. The GFDL has just gone insane. At this rate, it will put it into the 850's easy.

[Brandon007]

I'm in shock how fast can theoretically wind speed be in a hurricane, i mean how fast will physics allow? I hope none of those little islands are in the path because they could quite literally not exist if the storm passes over them

[LeeJet]

Just how warm are the water temperatures here?

[Coredesat]

Ioke is currently over 29C waters. The waters ahead are even warmer:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/gfd ... 618/1.html

I personally think the GFDL's on crack, but let's see what the CPHC has to say about it.

[Normandy]

This warrants recon to possibly observe the strongest hurricane ever.

[mtm4319]

This warrants recon to possibly observe the strongest hurricane ever.

It's 38mb above Wilma. Not nearly the strongest ever.

[Normandy]

Not now, but when it stregthens. Ive never seen a model take a hurricane to 864 mbs.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would say this has winds about 150 knots and about 905-908 millibars now.

[mtm4319]

Not now, but when it stregthens. Ive never seen a model take a hurricane to 864 mbs.

If it does that, it would be during its typhoon stage.

[Ptarmigan]

Did anyone see the latest GFDL run?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

864mb and 182kt (210mph) = that is pushing the limits of physics...

Wow, that is strong! Hopefully it won't happen.

[LAwxrgal]

I would love to keep tabs on this beast, but I kind of have more important concerns to deal with.

But I was just glancing at her in passing. She's amazing.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Just think if the 06z run of the Gfdl took Ernesto to that strengthen. This board would go crazy!

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Just think if the 06z run of the Gfdl took Ernesto to that strengthen. This board would go crazy!

[Cyclone Runner]

Tomorrow Ioke looks set to bear down on the Marshallese Atoll of Taongi, the capital of the break-away Dominion of of Melchizedek. That should put all the Melchizedkians in a panic

[JonathanBelles]

what about wake island, i hope their awake!
anyway i noticed that the eye is on the northwest side, why? link below
theres one band that goes more than half way around it! i just though that was neat

LINK

[WindRunner]

CPHC, signing out . . .

WTPA42 PHFO 270240
TCDCP2

HURRICANE IOKE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP012006
500 PM HST SAT AUG 26 2006

HURRICANE IOKE IS ABOUT TO CROSS THE DATELINE AND BECOME TYPHOON IOKE...STILL AT CATEGORY 5 STATUS. SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FOR 26/2330Z OF 7.0 FROM CPHC AND KGWC...AND 6.5 FROM SAB AND JTWC...PROMPT US TO KEEP INITIAL INTENSITY AT 140 KT. AODT FROM CPHC IS 6.9. IOKE MAINTAINS A WELL-FORMED EYE WITH A CENTRAL TEMP OF +3.8C AND A SURROUNDING CLOUD REGION TEMP OF -72.0C. IOKE APPEARS TO HAVE COMPLETED AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH LITTLE OR NO DECREASE IN INTENSITY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS.

MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE IS NICELY CLUSTERED...WITH GUNS..GUNA AND CONU IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH...STRANGELY ENOUGH...BAMS. NOGAPS AND BAMD REPRESENT THE RIGHT AND LEFT OUTLIERS...RESPECTIVELY. TRACK CLUSTER GUIDANCE CONTINUES THE TAKE IOKE ALONG A WEST TO WEST SOUTHWESTERLY COURSE THROUGH 36 HOURS AS THIS SYSTEM RESPONDS TO WEAK RIDGING TO ITS NORTHWEST. THE 18Z GFS75 SHOWS THIS RIDGE WILL SPLIT ALONG IOKE/S PATH BEYOND 36 HOURS...DRAWING IOKE DUE WESTWARD BY 48 HOURS THEN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH 72...96 AND 120 HOURS. THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK THROUGH 72 HOURS...THEN DEVIATES SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AT 96 AND 120 HOURS. SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW IOKE HAS BEGUN TO TAKE A MORE WEST SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK VERSUS THE SOUTHWESTERLY TRACK NOTED EARLIER TODAY. INITIAL FORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED AS WELL AND IS INCREASED SLIGHTLY THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE FORECAST TRACK. WHILE THE FORECAST TRACK TAKES IOKE NORTHEAST OF WAKE ISLAND AT POINT OF CLOSEST APPROACH BETWEEN 84 AND 96 HOURS...IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT THE 18Z GFS75 TAKES THIS SYSTEM ALMOST DIRECTLY OVER THAT ISLAND AT 96 HOURS.

IOKE WILL LIKELY GO THROUGH SEVERAL EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES OVER THE COMING DAYS...RESULTING IN SHORT TERM STRENGTH FLUCTUATIONS. HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE KEEPS IOKE AT OR NEAR ITS CURRENT STRENGTH THROUGH 120 HOURS. NOGAPS AND UKMET ARE RATHER STEADY BUT...AS AN OUTLIER...GFDL WANTS TO STRENGTHEN IOKE TO 170 KT AT 96 HOURS. INCREASING SST AND LOW SHEAR ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK WILL...AT THE VERY LEAST...GREATLY SLOW IOKE/S DECAY AT HIGHER LATITUDES. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. IOKE COULD ENTER THE RECORD BOOKS FOR LONGEVITY AS A CATEGORY 4 OR GREATER STORM.

THIS IS THE FINAL DISCUSSION FROM THE CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER ON THIS SYSTEM. REFER TO THE BULLETIN BY RSMC TOKYO HEREAFTER.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/0300Z 17.7N 179.3W 140 KT
12HR VT 27/1200Z 17.2N 179.1E 140 KT
24HR VT 28/0000Z 17.0N 177.0E 140 KT
36HR VT 28/1200Z 17.0N 175.1E 140 KT
48HR VT 29/0000Z 17.3N 173.2E 140 KT
72HR VT 30/0000Z 18.5N 169.7E 140 KT
96HR VT 31/0000Z 20.8N 166.4E 140 KT
120HR VT 01/0000Z 23.6N 163.1E 135 KT


$$
FORECASTER POWELL

[HurricaneBill]

The JMA has issued a marine typhoon warning for the area near where Ioke will cross the dateline:

TYPHOON WARNING. EXPECTED WINDS 30 TO 115 KNOTS FOR NEXT 24 HOURS RELATED TO HURRICANE IOKE.
HURRICANE IOKE : SEE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING (WTPA22 PHFO).

If Ioke maintains its strength and the JMA uses that 115 kt figure (10-min average), then Ioke will be the strongest storm of the 2006 WPAC season so far as soon as it crosses over.

If JMA lists Ioke at 10-min sustained winds of 120 KT at some point, it would be the first time JMA has listed a storm at Category 5 strength in almost 15 years!

The last typhoon to reach 120 KT (10-min) according to JMA was Super Typhoon Yuri in 1991.