TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

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Extremeweatherguy
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#201 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:34 pm

Can't wait to see what the models look like when I wake up tomorrow morning. It should be interesting to see how thrown off everything becomes due to this additional poor run of the GFS. Until this model gets a better handle, Ernesto's mystery period could last even longer than we think. Fun.. :roll:
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#202 Postby Rouster » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:34 pm

I agree Derek, wholeheartedly.

Just watch and see, but I'll bet that by tommorrow the models start trending back to the W. I think they really jumped to the E mainly because the Center was reformed to the N.
Ernie will not run into that High pressure Ridge as others have commented.

I still think this storm can go anywhere from Tx to Fla, but not the keys or very S Fla. It will be an interesting 5+ days to say the least.
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#203 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:35 pm

If it where to cross where it could hit the keys no more then a cat1 this would be....I think the ridge will not move out like this, thinking is will stay in place...With the cyclone getting to around 82 west before moving over Cuba. We will see.
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#204 Postby jasons2k » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:37 pm

Canadian now showing South of Central LA at 144H
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#205 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:38 pm

Extremeweatherguy wrote:Can't wait to see what the models look like when I wake up tomorrow morning. It should be interesting to see how thrown off everything becomes due to this additional poor run of the GFS. Until this model gets a better handle, Ernesto's mystery period could last even longer than we think. Fun.. :roll:


Well if you wake tomorrow morning and the other models have chimed in with GFS and NOGAPS then what excuse are the doubters going to use? I just don't see what the big deal is. The NHC has not once said they were discounting what the GFS was saying so why bash it based on it's passed performance. Just my 2 cents.
Last edited by Stormcenter on Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#206 Postby Brent » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:40 pm

jschlitz wrote:Canadian now showing South of Central LA at 144H


A model that's not crazy!

:eek:
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#207 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:41 pm

Nam run is bizarre. It takes a double-shot storm fujiwara toward the west Gulf and LA. It may be even more buzzed than I am. :D

Steve

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
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#208 Postby Weatherfreak000 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:41 pm

Can someone show a link of the Canadian Model?
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#209 Postby HouTXmetro » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:42 pm

jschlitz wrote:Canadian now showing South of Central LA at 144H


Good Lawd, this goes to show we can't depend on models. They are EVERYWHERE. We have varying solutions all across the board from MX to the Atlantic!!!!!!!

WTH is happening?
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#210 Postby ROCK » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:42 pm

jschlitz wrote:Canadian now showing South of Central LA at 144H


is that the 12z run?
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#211 Postby Canelaw99 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:42 pm

Steve - that's definitely a keeper run LOL Someone needs to archive that one so we can pull it back out at the end of the season for a good laugh!!!
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#212 Postby Stormcenter » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:44 pm

Weatherfreak000 wrote:Can someone show a link of the Canadian Model?


It doesn't look too impressive when it makes landfall though.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
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#213 Postby Bgator » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:47 pm

AtlanticWind wrote:https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/CGI/PUBLIC/wxmap_single.cgi?area=ngp_atlantic&dtg=2006082700&prod=prp&tau=072


Nogaps shift


Brings it through the keys and up the west coast, semi-similar to GFS....Hmmm inteersting!
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#214 Postby HouTXmetro » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:47 pm

skufful wrote:
Stormcenter wrote:
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Can't wait to see what the models look like when I wake up tomorrow morning. It should be interesting to see how thrown off everything becomes due to this additional poor run of the GFS. Until this model gets a better handle, Ernesto's mystery period could last even longer than we think. Fun.. :roll:


Well if you wake tomorrow morning and the other models have chimed in with GFS and NOGAPS then what excuse are they doubters going to use? I just don't see what the big deal is. The NHC has not once said they were discounting what the GFS was saying so why bash it based on it's passed performance. Just my 2 cents.


Because it's not predicting a landfall near them.


In fairness PRO-METS have discounted the GFS.
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#215 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:47 pm

Yeah. I'm wondering if it's fooled based on the triple-blob format Ernesto had taken earlier. I didn't run the NAM at any other heights because the run was just coming in (that was 1000-500mb overlay loop).

Steve
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#216 Postby Droop12 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:48 pm

Boy, will you guys forget about the models for now. By tomorrow everyones gonna hate each other with all this hoopala going on. Relax, its days away. We've gone through this for years now, yet everyone still gets all up in a frenzy 4-6 days out.
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#217 Postby jasons2k » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:48 pm

Steve wrote:Nam run is bizarre. It takes a double-shot storm fujiwara toward the west Gulf and LA. It may be even more buzzed than I am. :D

Steve

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml


Yeah, almost like the ULL slingshots it west once it gets into the GOM
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#218 Postby Droop12 » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:49 pm

Steve wrote:Yeah. I'm wondering if it's fooled based on the triple-blob format Ernesto had taken earlier. I didn't run the NAM at any other heights because the run was just coming in (that was 1000-500mb overlay loop).

Steve

Hey Steve, long time no see, how are things going over in the Bayou?
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#219 Postby Steve » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:51 pm

All good. I'm dreading being in the Level II evacuation plan though. They've got me scheduled to work in Mobile post-storm, and I will either evacuate to Eunice or Austin, TX depending on time and money (and obviously potential threat). What plans are you making?

Steve
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#220 Postby Opal storm » Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:51 pm

We probably won't see any real agreement with the models until it gets passed Cuba.
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