
TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- Extremeweatherguy
- Category 5
- Posts: 11095
- Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
- Location: Florida
Can't wait to see what the models look like when I wake up tomorrow morning. It should be interesting to see how thrown off everything becomes due to this additional poor run of the GFS. Until this model gets a better handle, Ernesto's mystery period could last even longer than we think. Fun.. 

0 likes
I agree Derek, wholeheartedly.
Just watch and see, but I'll bet that by tommorrow the models start trending back to the W. I think they really jumped to the E mainly because the Center was reformed to the N.
Ernie will not run into that High pressure Ridge as others have commented.
I still think this storm can go anywhere from Tx to Fla, but not the keys or very S Fla. It will be an interesting 5+ days to say the least.
Just watch and see, but I'll bet that by tommorrow the models start trending back to the W. I think they really jumped to the E mainly because the Center was reformed to the N.
Ernie will not run into that High pressure Ridge as others have commented.
I still think this storm can go anywhere from Tx to Fla, but not the keys or very S Fla. It will be an interesting 5+ days to say the least.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6685
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Extremeweatherguy wrote:Can't wait to see what the models look like when I wake up tomorrow morning. It should be interesting to see how thrown off everything becomes due to this additional poor run of the GFS. Until this model gets a better handle, Ernesto's mystery period could last even longer than we think. Fun..
Well if you wake tomorrow morning and the other models have chimed in with GFS and NOGAPS then what excuse are the doubters going to use? I just don't see what the big deal is. The NHC has not once said they were discounting what the GFS was saying so why bash it based on it's passed performance. Just my 2 cents.
Last edited by Stormcenter on Sat Aug 26, 2006 11:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes
Nam run is bizarre. It takes a double-shot storm fujiwara toward the west Gulf and LA. It may be even more buzzed than I am.
Steve
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Steve
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
0 likes
- HouTXmetro
- Category 5
- Posts: 3949
- Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
- Location: District of Columbia, USA
jschlitz wrote:Canadian now showing South of Central LA at 144H
Good Lawd, this goes to show we can't depend on models. They are EVERYWHERE. We have varying solutions all across the board from MX to the Atlantic!!!!!!!
WTH is happening?
0 likes
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 6685
- Joined: Wed Sep 03, 2003 11:27 am
- Location: Houston, TX
Weatherfreak000 wrote:Can someone show a link of the Canadian Model?
It doesn't look too impressive when it makes landfall though.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation
0 likes
- HouTXmetro
- Category 5
- Posts: 3949
- Joined: Sun Jun 13, 2004 6:00 pm
- Location: District of Columbia, USA
skufful wrote:Stormcenter wrote:Extremeweatherguy wrote:Can't wait to see what the models look like when I wake up tomorrow morning. It should be interesting to see how thrown off everything becomes due to this additional poor run of the GFS. Until this model gets a better handle, Ernesto's mystery period could last even longer than we think. Fun..
Well if you wake tomorrow morning and the other models have chimed in with GFS and NOGAPS then what excuse are they doubters going to use? I just don't see what the big deal is. The NHC has not once said they were discounting what the GFS was saying so why bash it based on it's passed performance. Just my 2 cents.
Because it's not predicting a landfall near them.
In fairness PRO-METS have discounted the GFS.
0 likes
[Disclaimer: My Amateur Opinion, please defer to your local authorities or the NHC for Guidance.]
- jasons2k
- Storm2k Executive
- Posts: 8247
- Age: 51
- Joined: Wed Jul 06, 2005 12:32 pm
- Location: The Woodlands, TX
Steve wrote:Nam run is bizarre. It takes a double-shot storm fujiwara toward the west Gulf and LA. It may be even more buzzed than I am.
Steve
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml
Yeah, almost like the ULL slingshots it west once it gets into the GOM
0 likes
Steve wrote:Yeah. I'm wondering if it's fooled based on the triple-blob format Ernesto had taken earlier. I didn't run the NAM at any other heights because the run was just coming in (that was 1000-500mb overlay loop).
Steve
Hey Steve, long time no see, how are things going over in the Bayou?
0 likes
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: 7cardinal, IcyTundra, lilbump3000, Ulf and 40 guests