TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[jasons2k]

Well if you wake tomorrow morning and the other models have chimed in with GFS and NOGAPS then what excuse are the doubters going to use? I just don't see what the big deal is. The NHC has not once said they were discounting what the GFS was saying so why bash it based on it's passed performance. Just my 2 cents.

If you recall AFM's summary of the NHC conference call earlier today, the HPC forecasters stated that none of the Globals (including the GFS) had a good handle on this at all. It's a crapshoot for now.

[Recurve]

here we go...convection blowup closer to /over the LLC (my guess)?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-wv.html

at least making the motion look westerly again.

Is that ULL to the northeast helping E vent too?

Madden on TWC now pointing out SW shear still, but increased convection too.

Can we see the ridge on WV?

[Swimdude]

I certainly hope the storm will be effected by land, and won't be able to strengthen to such a degree as is predicted...

[Steve]

As for the 00z Canadian, it's kind of weird. It brings Ernesto from east of S FL and goes under the tip. I don't know, obviously a bunch of models are seeing precip in the area and vorticity.

Steve

http://www.weatheroffice.ec.gc.ca/model ... 12_....jpg

(click Play to animate)

[jasons2k]

Canadian now showing South of Central LA at 144H

is that the 12z run?

Looks like I didn't hit "refresh". Sorry. It seems to be doing something - what's the word - wacky.

[StrongWind]

What the heck is going on?

I go away for half a day thinking Ernesto was heading gulfward and when I come back:

1. sat images seem to have less circulation than earlier today,
2. extrap looks like it's going through western Hispanola to Andros island,
3. the models are all over the place,
4. everyone still awake is going nuts.

[stormspotter]

What the heck is going on?

I go away for half a day thinking Ernesto was heading gulfward and when I come back:

1. sat images seem to have less circulation than earlier today,
2. extrap looks like it's going through western Hispanola to Andros island,
3. the models are all over the place,
4. everyone still awake is going nuts.

[hurricanedude]

everyone wanting it to go to there city

[Stormcenter]

everyone wanting it to go to there city

How true.

[Droop12]

everyone wanting it to go to there city

How true.

[baw_es]

If Ernesto follows the NHC track and can manage to stay south of Cuba it will have plenty of warm water to work with.

http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 6237ca.jpg

[Droop12]

Have we hit the eclipse or whatever in the Sat. images?

[Aquawind]

Have we hit the eclipse or whatever in the Sat. images?

Yep..

[Normandy]

Well since the eclipse is in....

If u look at any of the NHC loops that show cloud temps (like WV, Dvorak, etc) and follow the center, ull see a pretty clear WNW movement...

So really all the S Fl talk is rubbish imo.

[AtlanticWind]

Well since the eclipse is in....

If u look at any of the NHC loops that show cloud temps (like WV, Dvorak, etc) and follow the center, ull see a pretty clear WNW movement...

So really all the S Fl talk is rubbish imo.

With 3 global models now showing it going over south fla. I wouldnt call it rubbish

[Droop12]

Agree Normandy, hopefully by tomorrow an eye will pop out so we can have something to track, this blob just gives me a headache trying to figure out which direction its moving in.

[stormspotter]

R - U - B - B - I - S - H

[dwg71]

Agree Normandy, hopefully by tomorrow an eye will pop out so we can have something to track, this blob just gives me a headache trying to figure out which direction its moving in.

Take tylenol for headache , take a pass on storm with eye...

[Brent]

Agree Normandy, hopefully by tomorrow an eye will pop out so we can have something to track, this blob just gives me a headache trying to figure out which direction its moving in.

Along with everything else.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Well since the eclipse is in....

If u look at any of the NHC loops that show cloud temps (like WV, Dvorak, etc) and follow the center, ull see a pretty clear WNW movement...

So really all the S Fl talk is rubbish imo.

With 3 global models now showing it going over south fla. I wouldnt call it rubbish

I would. These models are all on crack right now. I have not seen one pro met buy into any kind of S. Florida forecast. It just aint gonna happen IMO, unless a strong trough/CF comes in from out of nowhere within the next 24-36 hrs. and magically turns this NE.