TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[Normandy]

I think its fairly easy to track the center by looking at the movements of the cloudtops on IR and WV....but yea an eye would be best.

MY POINT is this....
Its not heading where the GFS wants it to go....hard to believe isnt it.

[dwg71]

i have yet to see a s fl forecast, but the keys and extreme southwest portion of the state are in the 3 day cone. They are not out of the woods by any means. At this point they have more to worry about than TX.

[clfenwi]

00Z UKMET...pretty picture plots haven't updated yet, but eyeballing the points, it looks Charleyesque.

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 72.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006


VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 27.08.2006 16.6N 72.7W MODERATE
12UTC 27.08.2006 17.0N 73.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2006 18.9N 74.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2006 20.8N 76.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2006 22.4N 79.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2006 23.8N 81.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2006 24.9N 82.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2006 26.0N 83.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2006 27.5N 83.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2006 29.1N 82.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2006 31.8N 80.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.09.2006 34.7N 78.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2006 37.3N 76.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

[Droop12]

i have yet to see a s fl forecast, but the keys and extreme southwest portion of the state are in the 3 day cone. They are not out of the woods by any means. At this point they have more to worry about than TX.

Uh oh, those are fightin words..

[Typhoon_Willie]

Well things can happen in the tropics fairly quickly. You never know. Until the system has completely passed the South Fla area, we will continue to watch for further updates. Better to ready for the storm than not.

[AtlanticWind]

I will go with the Pro Mets at the hurricane center tomorrow.

[Stormcenter]

00Z UKMET...pretty picture plots haven't updated yet, but eyeballing the points, it looks Charleyesque.

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 72.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006


VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 27.08.2006 16.6N 72.7W MODERATE
12UTC 27.08.2006 17.0N 73.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2006 18.9N 74.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2006 20.8N 76.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2006 22.4N 79.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2006 23.8N 81.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2006 24.9N 82.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2006 26.0N 83.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2006 27.5N 83.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2006 29.1N 82.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2006 31.8N 80.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.09.2006 34.7N 78.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2006 37.3N 76.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

for Fl.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

maybe the models are seeing that low that formed to the east of the GA/FL coast causing a serious disruption in the ridge. our weather has really been wet today and tonite because of that low!

many of the other models were not seeing any low develop there all along while I was checking them out, that's why I was calling for the more northerly turn early (on thursday). it's that low that is going to turn the ridge into mush for a short term. -the same time that E is coming up into the gulf.

then, depending on speed of E, that coming trough could be a player for the end game if it dips low enough.

[Normandy]

I will go with the Pro Mets at the hurricane center tomorrow.

GREAT!
So you don't think itll hit S FL?
Because if you believe the NHC, then you'll notice that S FL is BARELY in the cone.

[Bgator]

00Z UKMET...pretty picture plots haven't updated yet, but eyeballing the points, it looks Charleyesque.

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ANALYSED POSITION : 16.6N 72.7W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052006


VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

00UTC 27.08.2006 16.6N 72.7W MODERATE
12UTC 27.08.2006 17.0N 73.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 28.08.2006 18.9N 74.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 28.08.2006 20.8N 76.8W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 29.08.2006 22.4N 79.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 29.08.2006 23.8N 81.3W MODERATE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 30.08.2006 24.9N 82.9W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 30.08.2006 26.0N 83.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 31.08.2006 27.5N 83.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 31.08.2006 29.1N 82.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 01.09.2006 31.8N 80.8W STRONG INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 01.09.2006 34.7N 78.9W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 02.09.2006 37.3N 76.3W STRONG LITTLE CHANGE

Thats another model that takes it very close to S FLA, right off dry tortugas national park, much farther east than last!

[Windtalker1]

I will go with the Pro Mets at the hurricane center tomorrow.

GREAT!
So you don't think itll hit S FL?
Because if you believe the NHC, then you'll notice that S FL is BARELY in the cone.

Wait till tomorrows cone...all of S FL will be in it.

[LeeJet]

I see from my moon cards that this will hit the peninsula of FL.

[Normandy]

^ Yea, and then in Monday itll be bearing down on Miami.

[PTPatrick]

If these tracks near the east coast of FL verified then, it would be the first time in quite a while that I have seen a developed storm going outside of the 3 day cone...

[Acral]

It's late and I am being silly.. but so is the GFS...

Okay, Ernie will traverse Cuba, turn around and have a burrito in Cozmel, make a quick jaunt over to Gulf Shores in hopes to catch up with Jimmy Buffett at LuLu's, then saunter over to the Melting Pot in Pensacola, and lastly a brief trip to Lousiana.

Hey Britney did it, why not Ernie?

[AtlanticWind]

I will go with the Pro Mets at the hurricane center tomorrow.

GREAT!
So you don't think itll hit S FL?
Because if you believe the NHC, then you'll notice that S FL is BARELY in the cone.

I dont know if it will hit so.fla. But I would not be surprised if the Nhc shifted the track closer since they base their forecasts on global models.

[ConvergenceZone]

Well since the eclipse is in....

If u look at any of the NHC loops that show cloud temps (like WV, Dvorak, etc) and follow the center, ull see a pretty clear WNW movement...

So really all the S Fl talk is rubbish imo.

I agree. I mean, I listen to the opinions of the Pro Mets on here(such as Derek and others) more than anyone else(including myself). I mean these guys work with these models everyday. This is what they do for a living.. They know which models are more reliable, they know their behavior and what to look for and what not to look for......They know alot more than we do, that's for sure and have more tools at their disposal and probably better intutition from working everyday with this stuff....

[clfenwi]

00Z GFDL... doesn't have a landfall point, turns the storm to the northeast well west of Tampa (south of Panama City) , so one could perhaps extrapolate landfall in the Big Bend.

WHXX04 KWBC 270531
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO 05L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.5 72.3 300./12.0
6 17.0 73.3 297./10.8
12 17.6 73.8 323./ 8.4
18 18.6 74.4 326./11.3
24 19.3 75.1 316./ 9.6
30 19.7 76.3 290./12.1
36 20.1 77.1 298./ 8.6
42 20.9 77.9 315./10.1
48 21.4 78.9 296./11.3
54 21.6 80.1 278./11.2
60 22.1 80.9 306./ 8.7
66 22.6 81.9 294./10.5
72 23.0 82.8 300./ 9.3
78 23.4 83.5 294./ 7.8
84 23.8 84.3 296./ 8.6
90 24.1 84.4 340./ 2.9
96 24.6 84.9 314./ 6.5
102 25.0 85.2 322./ 4.9
108 25.5 85.3 356./ 5.1
114 26.1 85.1 18./ 6.1
120 26.7 84.7 30./ 7.3
126 27.5 84.4 19./ 8.4

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Decent weakness at 700 MB over Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif

[millibar]

[quote="TreasureIslandFLGal"]maybe the models are seeing that low that formed to the east of the GA/FL coast ...

...been thinking same since last eve. hey're certainly "seeing" something!!!

Regards,
millibar