TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

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LeeJet

#261 Postby LeeJet » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:37 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Decent weakness at 700 MB over Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif


meaning?
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#262 Postby Furious George » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:37 am

Windtalker1 wrote:
Normandy wrote:
AtlanticWind wrote:I will go with the Pro Mets at the hurricane center tomorrow.


GREAT!
So you don't think itll hit S FL?
Because if you believe the NHC, then you'll notice that S FL is BARELY in the cone.
Wait till tomorrows cone...all of S FL will be in it.


According to this graphic, the NHC is giving 5-10% odds of hurricane force winds in extreme south florida. I would definately err on the side of caution here, and start thinking about the possibility for hurricane force conditons.

Do not let anyone tell you that S FL is out of the woods - b/c it is not.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphic ... l?hwind120
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#263 Postby Windtalker1 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:37 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Decent weakness at 700 MB over Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif
Wonder where that "weakness" came from?
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#264 Postby Bgator » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:38 am

GFS, UKMET, CMC, NOGAPS, all take it very close to SW/SE Florida! This needs to be monitored, and see what the models do at 2AM, and beyond, if they come in line, than you never know!
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#265 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:39 am

ConvergenceZone wrote:
Normandy wrote:Well since the eclipse is in....

If u look at any of the NHC loops that show cloud temps (like WV, Dvorak, etc) and follow the center, ull see a pretty clear WNW movement...

So really all the S Fl talk is rubbish imo.



I agree. I mean, I listen to the opinions of the Pro Mets on here(such as Derek and others) more than anyone else(including myself). I mean these guys work with these models everyday. This is what they do for a living.. They know which models are more reliable, they know their behavior and what to look for and what not to look for......They know alot more than we do, that's for sure and have more tools at their disposal and probably better intutition from working everyday with this stuff....


But no one is perfect. No offense to the ProMets but I still will put $$$ on what the NHC has to say.
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#266 Postby Vortex » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:39 am

Major development this evening 00z models:

GFS: South florda/keys hit

Nogaps: S. Fl/keys hit

Ukmet: Keys/sw/w. central florida hit

Gem: South florida/keys hit.


Now were just waiting on the rest to come out. Anyone that continues to down play florida that lives in south florida i hope is not kidding himself. While this is far from written in stone the strong model agreement pointing to s fl and the keys should be taken more serious tomorrow if the trend holds given the fact South florida is within a potentially landfall within 72 hours.
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#267 Postby Windtalker1 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:39 am

Bgator wrote:GFS, UKMET, CMC, NOGAPS, all take it very close to SW/SE Florida! This needs to be monitored, and see what the models do at 2AM, and beyond, if they come in line, than you never know!
So, 4 models now....wonder how many others will join in on this bandwangon?
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#268 Postby Normandy » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:39 am

^ AND the NHC is NOT having this hit ANYWHERE near S Fl.
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#269 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:39 am

weakness is because of the new low that spun up of GA coast
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#270 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:40 am

looks like GFDL goes as far as 85 then bend back NEward toward Big bend again
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#271 Postby dwg71 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:40 am

Normandy wrote:^ AND the NHC is NOT having this hit ANYWHERE near S Fl.


They are in the cone though...
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#272 Postby Windtalker1 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:41 am

Normandy wrote:^ AND the NHC is NOT having this hit ANYWHERE near S Fl.
Not yet, they did not have 4 models changing their tune at that time.
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#273 Postby WxGuy1 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:41 am

As everyone has been saying, it's just too early. We could see an opposite trend develop starting tomorrow (in regards to model forecasts); we just don't know. I am not stubborn enough to continue to say that Florida is not at threat. It certainly looked like any landfall would stay west of Pensacola yesterday and this morning, but it's becoming apparent that I should take a FL landfall out of the "very unlikely" category and put it in the "unlikely to possible" category. It's still hugely up in the air, and my 'best guess' landfall location is still in the north-central Gulf coast area. However, let me not be stubborn or hard-headed enough to continue dismissing a possibility that some numerical guidance is indicating. Just as mets should realize the limitations of tropical cyclone forecasts and NWP, we also need to realize when to cut our losses and at lease present a possibility.
Last edited by WxGuy1 on Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:43 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#274 Postby ConvergenceZone » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:43 am

chalk up another Florida poster claiming it will hit Southern Florida.
Why does that surprise me? :lol:
too funny....

plus, remember, even if it did decide to hit Southern Florida, it will be a storm or depression.. not a cane, so nothing to worry about...
Last edited by ConvergenceZone on Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#275 Postby Steve » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:43 am

>>Now were just waiting on the rest to come out. Anyone that continues to down play florida that lives in south florida i hope is not kidding himself. While this is far from written in stone the strong model agreement pointing to s fl and the keys should be taken more serious tomorrow if the trend holds given the fact South florida is within a potentially landfall within 72 hours.

Add the 54km resolution MM5 out of FSU. I'm not saying "unanimous" but it would be odd for that many of the major, unrelated models to be wrong. We shall see.

Steve
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#276 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:44 am

Not believing we just went from possible Brownsville hit to Miami hit in less than 48 hours...
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#277 Postby MWatkins » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:44 am

Recon punch suggests the center is near 16.7N 72.8W as of 20 mins ago...slower than the NHC advisory position...

All of the models have swung right.

Cant wait to see the drop data.

MW
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#278 Postby Stormcenter » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:45 am

Normandy wrote:^ AND the NHC is NOT having this hit ANYWHERE near S Fl.


Not yet.
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#279 Postby AtlanticWind » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:45 am

WxGuy1 wrote:As everyone has been saying, it's just too early. We could see an opposite trend develop starting tomorrow (in regards to model forecasts); we just don't know. I am not stubborn enough to continue to say that Florida is not at threat. It certainly looked like any landfall would stay west of Pensacola yesterday and this morning, but it's becoming apparent that I should take a FL landfall out of the "very unlikely" category and put it in the "unlikely to possible" category. It's still hugely up in the air, and my 'best guess' landfall location is still in the north-central Gulf coast area. However, let me not be stubborn or hard-headed enough to continue dismissing a possibility that some numerical guidance is indicating.


Nice Post , I agree a south florida landfall may not be likely but is possible
with the latest model output
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#280 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Sun Aug 27, 2006 12:46 am

LeeJet wrote:
KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Decent weakness at 700 MB over Florida.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_036l.gif


meaning?
Meaning that the only thing i see to pull it up through Florida. Only thing i see at 500 is a high east of Florida moving west through Monday and leaves a weakness over the state.
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