TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[PTPatrick]

funny...just remembered that a few of the pros were saying last night it would either be FL or TX but not in between...

[WxGuy1]

Not believing we just went from possible Brownsville hit to Miami hit in less than 48 hours...

FWIW, I don't know of a single credible person here who really expects landfall in Miami. I see your point (and it shouldn't be entirely surprising, given what we've been saying for the past 48 hours -- we don't know what will happen and we should expect model changes), but consider it an exaggeration.

[Windtalker1]

chalk up another Florida poster claiming it will hit Florida
Why does that surprise me?
too funny....

Sorry to surprise you, if you look at my posts from 2 days ago, i called for a shift North due to a break down of the ridge. Just because I live in Fl doesn't mean I want one. I was without power for 14 days after Wilma, you really think I want to go through that again? Can't we have one storm that we can all talk about with out haveing someone say that a person is "-removed-" because they live in the area we feel it's going to hit?

[Sean in New Orleans]

The models have made a big switch...and it's good news on this storm, because if this comes to Fruition, the storm is going to be severely weakened by the mountains of E. Cuba..

[Bella]

chalk up another Florida poster claiming it will hit Florida
Why does that surprise me?
too funny....

Ok, was that really necessary? This is exactly what the Mods, as well as other posters have been talking about all day.

If you don't like the post, send a PM. Don't jam up the boards with this nonsense.

Sorry to pick on only you, but it's late, I'm tired, and I have read too many posts (on both sides), including those from Mods condemning these types of posts. Enough already.

If you don't have something nice (or constructive) to say....

[PTPatrick]

It was an exaggeration...I dont think this will be an FL east coast storm at all...but Tampa, very possible

[Stormcenter]

As everyone has been saying, it's just too early. We could see an opposite trend develop starting tomorrow (in regards to model forecasts); we just don't know. I am not stubborn enough to continue to say that Florida is not at threat. It certainly looked like any landfall would stay west of Pensacola yesterday and this morning, but it's becoming apparent that I should take a FL landfall out of the "very unlikely" category and put it in the "unlikely to possible" category. It's still hugely up in the air, and my 'best guess' landfall location is still in the north-central Gulf coast area. However, let me not be stubborn or hard-headed enough to continue dismissing a possibility that some numerical guidance is indicating.

Nice Post , I agree a south florida landfall may not be likely but is possible
with the latest model output

How anyone still thinks the N.Central GOM is still the likely landfall area with all of these models stating otherwise makes no sense. Last year with Katrina the models locked on SE LA./MS 72 hours out and never changed. Yes things can still change, but as of right "now" Fl is the target area and not the N.Central GOM.

[ConvergenceZone]

Major development this evening 00z models:

GFS: South florda/keys hit

Nogaps: S. Fl/keys hit

Ukmet: Keys/sw/w. central florida hit

Gem: South florida/keys hit.


Now were just waiting on the rest to come out. Anyone that continues to down play florida that lives in south florida i hope is not kidding himself. While this is far from written in stone the strong model agreement pointing to s fl and the keys should be taken more serious tomorrow if the trend holds given the fact South florida is within a potentially landfall within 72 hours.

Again, if this ever does pan out, we are probably talking minimal tropical storm or depression....so everyone in south florida should be able to sleep just fine should this happen...In my opinion, no hurricane if it goes that path, so nothing to worry aboutas it won't have time to develop from the stage it's in right now and not to mention.. Cuba would crush it.

[Bgator]

Major development this evening 00z models:

GFS: South florda/keys hit

Nogaps: S. Fl/keys hit

Ukmet: Keys/sw/w. central florida hit

Gem: South florida/keys hit.


Now were just waiting on the rest to come out. Anyone that continues to down play florida that lives in south florida i hope is not kidding himself. While this is far from written in stone the strong model agreement pointing to s fl and the keys should be taken more serious tomorrow if the trend holds given the fact South florida is within a potentially landfall within 72 hours.

Again, if this ever does pan out, we are probably talking minimal tropical storm or depression....so everyone in south florida should be able to sleep just fine should this happen...In my opinion, no hurricane if it goes that path, so nothing to worry aboutas it won't have time to develop from the stage it's in right now and not to mention.. Cuba would crush it.

Actually alot of the models take it thru central cuba more, which is more hilly, and will not do as much damage, a Dennis like scenario is looking more and more likely...But im not sure, Cuba is very small so if it is moving, damage will be not HORRIBLE.

[StrongWind]

chalk up another Florida poster claiming it will hit Southern Florida.
Why does that surprise me?
too funny....

plus, remember, even if it did decide to hit Southern Florida, it will be a storm or depression.. not a cane, so nothing to worry about...

Not too different from all the TX/elsewhere posters who seem to not want it going to S. Fl. instead.

[Derek Ortt]

There was no G-IV dropsonde data tonight


G-IV flew Debby for a research project

[ConvergenceZone]

Now as far as models go, UKMET IS a possiblity I think, but I don't consider that model southern florida. If it takes the path of the UKMET however, the storm will be long gone by the time it emerges out of Cuba, as it literally takes it lengthwise across all of the mountains of Cuba. There will NOTHING left of the storm.

[Brent]

What a bizarre storm.

[Wx_Warrior]

I wouldnt say nothing to worry about but makes you layoff the tums for now.

[Normandy]

For the S Fl people, let me ask you all this.

There are three ways this storm can get to S FL, from the west, south, and the east.

1) West: It moves STRAIGHT NNW from now and hits miami.
2) It moves completely across Cuba, NEVER passing the lattitude of the Keys, and hit S FL moving DUE north.
3)It does one of the sharpest Recurves in hurricane history, passes just west of Havane (or just east) and recurves and heads NNE-NE over S Fl.

Ask yourselves, do ANY of those scenarios seem plausible?

[Windtalker1]

011
WTNT35 KNHC 270554
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 10A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
200 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...ERNESTO GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED SOUTH OF HAITI...
...HEAVY RAINS POSSIBLE OVER MUCH OF HISPANIOLA...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE PROVINCES OF LAS
TUNAS...GRANMA...HOLGUIN...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...AND GUANTANAMO IN
EASTERN CUBA. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
SOUTHERN FLORIDA...AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.
Need I say more?

[Normandy]

^Great, now bold the Yucatan part also.

[Brent]

It moved .1 south and .0 west from 11pm to 2am.

[AtlanticWind]

For the S Fl people, let me ask you all this.

There are two ways this storm can get to S FL, from the west, south, and the east.

1) West: It moves STRAIGHT NNW from now and hits miami.
2) It moves completely across Cuba, NEVER passing the lattitude of the Keys, and hit S FL moving DUE north.
3)It does one of the sharpest Recurves in hurricane history, passes just west of Havane (or just east) and recurves and heads NNE-NE over S Fl.

Ask yourselves, do ANY of those scenarios seem plausible?

Cleo in 1964 came in from the south in August.

[Stratosphere747]

Center reform again?