TS Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread 12

[tgenius]

The ridge is there and it is not weakening. The storm is still heading WNW and with every hour that it does that you need to turn your attention West(Not Texas)just West.

bailey, thr storm is currently stationary as per recon...

[ConvergenceZone]

Major development this evening 00z models:

GFS: South florda/keys hit

Nogaps: S. Fl/keys hit

Ukmet: Keys/sw/w. central florida hit

Gem: South florida/keys hit.


Now were just waiting on the rest to come out. Anyone that continues to down play florida that lives in south florida i hope is not kidding himself. While this is far from written in stone the strong model agreement pointing to s fl and the keys should be taken more serious tomorrow if the trend holds given the fact South florida is within a potentially landfall within 72 hours.

Again, if this ever does pan out, we are probably talking minimal tropical storm or depression....so everyone in south florida should be able to sleep just fine should this happen...In my opinion, no hurricane if it goes that path, so nothing to worry aboutas it won't have time to develop from the stage it's in right now and not to mention.. Cuba would crush it.

Actually alot of the models take it thru central cuba more, which is more hilly, and will not do as much damage, a Dennis like scenario is looking more and more likely...But im not sure, Cuba is very small so if it is moving, damage will be not HORRIBLE.

and I would agree with ya here if Ernesto was already a hurricane, but being that it's only a tropical storm, it's not going to take much at all to tear it apart completely. They were talking about this on TV tonight........

[Stratosphere747]

Um...Bailey...

It's barely moved since the 11pm advisory. There could be a directional change coming.

[Bgator]

Who said it wont be a cane by the time it enters Cuba, looks like that new ball will form better and better throughout the night!

[ConvergenceZone]

chalk up another Florida poster claiming it will hit Florida
Why does that surprise me?
too funny....

Ok, was that really necessary? This is exactly what the Mods, as well as other posters have been talking about all day.

If you don't like the post, send a PM. Don't jam up the boards with this nonsense.

Sorry to pick on only you, but it's late, I'm tired, and I have read too many posts (on both sides), including those from Mods condemning these types of posts. Enough already.

If you don't have something nice (or constructive) to say....

hey, I'm just making an observation, that's all I"m saying...Perhaps it is just a coincidence, and if so, then I apologize...

[clfenwi]

The ridge is there and it is not weakening. The storm is still heading WNW and with every hour that it does that you need to turn your attention West(Not Texas)just West.

bailey, thr storm is currently stationary as per recon...

Since the 11 PM advisory was an estimated position, one shouldn't jump to the conclusion that it's stationary by comparing the most recent recon fix to the 11 PM position. Better to wait until the next fix and compare that fix to the first fix.

Using the fix from the last mission and comparing it to the first fix of this mission, it has moved somewhat slowly over the past six hours ... 7 knots on heading of 285°

[hurricanedude]

everyone wanting it to go to there city

Not everyone, and WHY would anyone want a major hurricane (as it's forecast now) to devastate their city?

I was referring to the people I disagree with, by now I would think you know me better than that??

[Bailey1777]

WNW at 9mph come on now do you really think it was stationary please. The 11pm said within 30nm.

[ericinmia]

WNW at 9mph come on now do you really think it was stationary please. The 11pm said within 30nm.

There is a LOT that has happened since the 11pm... check the recon data... lol

[Bailey1777]

I have and the 2am was made off of it WNW at 9mph. This is so elementary. Maybe in 15 minutes it will turn due North but this is the here and now!

[ConvergenceZone]

The ridge is there and it is not weakening. The storm is still heading WNW and with every hour that it does that you need to turn your attention West(Not Texas)just West.

exactly my point earlier. It's still moving west-northwest and every hour it continues to go this direction, lesson's the possibilty even more from what it already is to hit south Florida...

I still do think that Northern Florida is a possibliity though, with the panhandle being the most likely, but not South Florida, but by tomorrow, we will know if south Florida is even a remote possbility....

[Droop12]

Does the 2am advisory say the pressure is down to 995mb? I though recon only found 997?

[Wx_Warrior]

how far west do you see a change?????? I dont think too much...

[Droop12]

If this thing is gonna hit SFLA, it'll have to cross Cuba tomorrow sometime, so we'll see. I doubt it and see nothing wrong with the current NHC track through 72 hours.

[Normandy]

Wow anyone see the new image of Ernesto?

[clfenwi]

The graphic at http://sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_05.gif
has updated to include the 06Z NHC suite...

WHXX01 KWBC 270616
CHGHUR

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO TPC/NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONES.

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060827 0600 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060827 0600 060827 1800 060828 0600 060828 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 16.6N 72.7W 17.9N 74.6W 18.7N 76.4W 19.4N 77.9W
BAMM 16.6N 72.7W 17.9N 75.0W 18.7N 76.9W 19.3N 78.7W
A98E 16.6N 72.7W 17.1N 74.2W 17.7N 75.8W 18.6N 77.4W
LBAR 16.6N 72.7W 17.6N 74.3W 19.1N 76.1W 20.5N 77.8W
SHIP 55KTS 64KTS 75KTS 85KTS
DSHP 55KTS 64KTS 75KTS 85KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060829 0600 060830 0600 060831 0600 060901 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 19.9N 79.5W 21.2N 82.2W 22.2N 84.2W 23.0N 85.5W
BAMM 19.8N 80.4W 20.8N 83.0W 21.6N 84.6W 22.3N 85.6W
A98E 19.8N 79.1W 22.3N 82.7W 25.1N 84.8W 28.3N 83.2W
LBAR 21.5N 79.3W 23.2N 81.2W 24.2N 82.0W 25.5N 81.5W
SHIP 94KTS 103KTS 105KTS 100KTS
DSHP 94KTS 83KTS 85KTS 79KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 16.6N LONCUR = 72.7W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 15.7N LONM12 = 71.2W DIRM12 = 314DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 14.6N LONM24 = 69.5W
WNDCUR = 55KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 993MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 70NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 50NM

[Bailey1777]

Recon-997mb
2am-995mb(estimate)

[Stormcenter]

If anyone cares here is the animated loop of the new GFDL run.


http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation

[Aquawind]

Model plot


*edit: a little help from your friends, Paul

[Bailey1777]

Off the subject of landfall I think we can all agree after looking at the satelite presentation that we are very close to a hurricane.