Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Aquawind]

WOW.. I saw that number and Freaked!

[Thunder44]

[Thunder44]

Found winds of 78kts at flight level, is it .8 or .9 reduction either way that gives it 75mph surface winds, we may have ourselves a cane!

Actually .8 would be 71Mph, .9 is a cane though!

Those winds are suspect though. Notice the 1's at the last column.

[jhamps10]

Actually .8 would be 71Mph, .9 is a cane though!

Those winds are suspect though. Notice the 1's at the last column.[/quote]

What would that have to do with it?

[Brandon007]

yay its our first cane of the season awwww ain't he so purdy lol

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I smell a dennis JR!

[clfenwi]

Found winds of 78kts at flight level, is it .8 or .9 reduction either way that gives it 75mph surface winds, we may have ourselves a cane!

Actually .8 would be 71Mph, .9 is a cane though!

Those winds are suspect though. Notice the 1's at the last column.

No, the wind is not the suspect value

1713N 07241W 01480 5013 096 076 136 136 078 01502 0000000100

The 0's are in order the first zero refers to latitude, second to longitude, etc.It's the eighth value which is suspect, and that's the dewpoint.

[Aquawind]

510
SXXX50 KNHC 270743
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 29 KNHC
0733. 1713N 07240W 01480 5011 095 067 136 136 072 01504 0000000100
0734 1714N 07239W 01482 5008 091 070 132 132 071 01509 0000000100
0734. 1714N 07238W 01481 5005 088 068 134 134 069 01511 0000000100
0735 1715N 07237W 01483 5004 086 068 136 136 069 01514 0000000100
0735. 1715N 07236W 01470 5002 092 069 140 140 070 01503 0000000000
0736 1716N 07235W 01457 5000 098 070 142 142 071 01492 0000000000
0736. 1716N 07234W 01466 0003 099 065 138 138 069 01504 0000000100
0737 1717N 07233W 01469 0008 093 056 140 140 059 01511 0000000000
0737. 1718N 07232W 01458 0012 091 054 148 148 058 01505 0000000000
0738 1719N 07231W 01465 0014 102 059 156 156 061 01513 0000000000
0738. 1719N 07229W 01461 0016 103 058 160 160 059 01512 0000000000
0739 1720N 07228W 01464 0018 102 056 146 146 058 01516 0000000000
0739. 1721N 07227W 01462 0020 097 055 146 146 057 01517 0000000000
0740 1721N 07226W 01466 0021 093 058 142 142 058 01521 0000000000
0740. 1722N 07225W 01464 0023 093 055 140 140 057 01522 0000000000
0741 1723N 07224W 01460 0022 090 053 138 138 055 01517 0000000100
0741. 1724N 07223W 01463 0021 082 052 136 136 055 01519 0000000100
0742 1725N 07222W 01469 0018 080 048 136 136 050 01522 0000000100
0742. 1725N 07221W 01458 0020 097 056 132 132 057 01513 0000000100
0743 1726N 07220W 01464 0020 094 059 134 134 063 01518 0000000100
;

[Thunder44]

[Cyclenall]

I smell a dennis JR!

Ernesto has reminded me of Hurricane Dennis right from birth!

Those are good wind speeds found. I'd say if those were true, then this system is at 60 knots. I'm not sold yet on it being a 'cane.

[Thunder44]

Found winds of 78kts at flight level, is it .8 or .9 reduction either way that gives it 75mph surface winds, we may have ourselves a cane!

Actually .8 would be 71Mph, .9 is a cane though!

Those winds are suspect though. Notice the 1's at the last column.

No, the wind is not the suspect value

1713N 07241W 01480 5013 096 076 136 136 078 01502 0000000100

The 0's are in order the first zero refers to latitude, second to longitude, etc.It's the eighth value which is suspect, and that's the dewpoint.

Oh, ok. Carry on with the celebration.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

I would go cane theres 2 knot winds stronger in this storm. I can almost promise that.

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 270753
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 30 KNHC
0743. 1727N 07219W 01464 0021 105 057 134 134 061 01520 0000000000
0744 1728N 07218W 01462 0024 107 056 134 134 057 01521 0000000100
0744. 1729N 07217W 01465 0026 105 052 136 136 052 01525 0000000000
0745 1730N 07216W 01461 0027 099 052 134 134 052 01522 0000000000
0745. 1732N 07216W 01464 0028 098 054 134 134 054 01527 0000000000
0746 1733N 07215W 01460 0030 098 055 138 138 055 01524 0000000000
0746. 1734N 07214W 01465 0031 097 054 136 136 054 01532 0000000000
0747 1735N 07213W 01465 0033 096 051 138 138 052 01533 0000000000
0747. 1736N 07212W 01463 0034 096 049 138 138 051 01532 0000000000
0748 1737N 07211W 01463 0034 098 050 152 152 050 01532 0000000000
0748. 1738N 07210W 01463 0034 097 049 160 160 049 01532 0000000000
0749 1739N 07209W 01462 0035 097 049 160 160 050 01532 0000000000
0749. 1740N 07208W 01464 0036 097 049 160 160 049 01534 0000000000
0750 1741N 07207W 01463 0037 098 049 164 164 049 01535 0000000000
0750. 1742N 07206W 01463 0037 101 048 166 166 048 01535 0000000000
0751 1743N 07205W 01463 0038 102 044 170 162 045 01535 0000000000
0751. 1743N 07204W 01462 0039 103 044 170 162 044 01535 0000000000
0752 1744N 07203W 01464 0040 104 045 168 166 045 01539 0000000000
0752. 1745N 07202W 01463 0041 103 045 166 166 045 01539 0000000000
0753 1746N 07201W 01463 0043 102 043 168 168 044 01541 0000000000

[clfenwi]

I would not be surprised that a dropsonde in the max wind area would support hurricane strength. There hasn't been an EYE dropsonde posted yet, nor has there been a max wind dropsonde posted... standing by...

000 UZNT13 KNHC 270805
XXAA 77088 99172 70727 04472 99003 25007 06544 00025 24609 06048
92706 20818 08064 85438 18200 09570 88999 77999
31313 09608 80732
61616 AF303 0505A ERNESTO OB 13
62626 MXWNDBND SPL 1721N07271W 0735 MBL WND 06058 AEV 20604 DLM W
ND 07060 002913 WL150 06051 083 =

Max boundary layer wind dropsonde ended up being not so impressive. MBL wind equating to 48 knots at the surface.

[SouthFloridawx]

Where is the VDM and the DS?

[Thunder44]

[SouthFloridawx]

923 UZNT13 KNHC 270703 XXAA 77058 99167 70727 04462 99997 27008 11549 00525 ///// ///// 92663 22602 15554 85401 19205 16544 88999 77999 31313 09608 80524 61616 AF303 0505A ERNESTO OB 06 62626 EYE SPL 1668N07273W 0526 MBL WND 13558 AEV 20604 DLM WND 15 056 997885 WL150 12555 075 = XXBB 77058 99167 70727 04462 00997 27008 11936 23001 22874 21610 33850 19205 44848 19005 21212 00997 11549 11984 12559 22973 13061 33964 13558 44948 15063 55926 15554 66908 16063 77898 16551 88888 17054 99885 17051 11848 16544 31313 09608 80524 61616 AF303 0505A ERNESTO OB 06 62626 EYE SPL 1668N07273W 0526 MBL WND 13558 AEV 20604 DLM WND 15 056 997885 WL150 12555 075 =

You guys go this right?

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 270803
AF303 0505A ERNESTO HDOB 31 KNHC
0753. 1748N 07201W 01462 0042 103 045 170 168 046 01539 0000000000
0754 1750N 07202W 01464 0042 102 045 166 166 045 01541 0000000000
0754. 1751N 07203W 01462 0044 104 044 170 170 044 01541 0000000000
0755 1752N 07205W 01465 0045 102 044 170 170 045 01545 0000000000
0755. 1752N 07207W 01462 0043 100 045 170 164 045 01540 0000000000
0756 1752N 07209W 01462 0043 101 045 172 160 045 01540 0000000000
0756. 1752N 07211W 01463 0043 102 045 170 160 046 01540 0000000000
0757 1752N 07214W 01463 0043 103 044 168 160 045 01540 0000000000
0757. 1752N 07216W 01465 0041 099 042 170 158 042 01541 0000000000
0758 1752N 07218W 01463 0039 096 042 174 154 042 01537 0000000000
0758. 1752N 07220W 01464 0039 096 044 170 154 045 01538 0000000000
0759 1752N 07222W 01461 0039 094 045 168 156 046 01535 0000000000
0759. 1752N 07224W 01465 0037 093 049 170 154 050 01537 0000000000
0800 1752N 07226W 01461 0036 092 050 172 156 050 01532 0000000000
0800. 1752N 07228W 01462 0036 094 049 170 158 050 01532 0000000000
0801 1752N 07231W 01466 0035 095 047 174 154 047 01536 0000000000
0801. 1752N 07233W 01461 0034 092 048 170 160 050 01529 0000000000
0802 1752N 07235W 01464 0032 094 049 168 166 050 01530 0000000000
0802. 1752N 07237W 01463 0030 092 049 180 158 051 01528 0000000000
0803 1752N 07239W 01464 0029 092 048 178 156 049 01527 0000000000

[Thunder44]

282
URNT12 KNHC 270804
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/07:26:10Z
B. 16 deg 56 min N
072 deg 51 min W
C. 850 mb 1379 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg 000 nm
F. 303 deg 046 kt
G. 205 deg 004 nm
H. EXTRAP 994 mb
I. 22 C/ 1464 m
J. 26 C/ 1540 m
K. 10 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF303 0505A ERNESTO OB 11
MAX FL WIND 78 KT NE QUAD 07:32:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
;

[Bgator]

So the center is about 17N a little less, and about 72.9W..Am i right?