BIG CHANGES IN BOTH THE INITIAL INTENSITY AND FORECAST TRACK WERE REQUIRED...UNFORTUNATELY...FOR THIS ADVISORY. LATEST RECON DATA INDICATE ERNESTO IS LIKELY UNDERGOING RAPID INTENSIFICATION.

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fci wrote:What a change to wake up to.
Getting blasted last night for even DISCUSSING GFS and NOGAPS and some being labeled as "people I disagree with" becomes a little strange when the NHC radically changes the forecast.
And those who said it will NEVER hit Haiti or So. Fla sound a bit silly too.
How's the song go; "Never say Never"?
Oh well, if it changed so quickly overnight, it can change again.....
Will be a VERY interesting day.....
SouthFloridawx wrote:fci wrote:What a change to wake up to.
Getting blasted last night for even DISCUSSING GFS and NOGAPS and some being labeled as "people I disagree with" becomes a little strange when the NHC radically changes the forecast.
And those who said it will NEVER hit Haiti or So. Fla sound a bit silly too.
How's the song go; "Never say Never"?
Oh well, if it changed so quickly overnight, it can change again.....
Will be a VERY interesting day.....
I said in the TS thread... there is going to be so much crow handed out, they will be extinct.
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:Look at this close in near where the Nhc has the center. There appears to be a warm spot. Its hard to tell it could easly be a cooler cloud but I don't think so. It was moving north-northwestward for the first half of this frame. But then over the last 2 frames shows it going more west-northwest again. So it most likely will clip the northern eyewall on land but the center could still stay off shore. Remember dennis went right over. We will see.
zoom in on this...Its acting more like a eye then a cold cloud to.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/loop-avn.html
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