Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[Downdraft]

Tropical systems don't strengthen over land with rare exception and the environment has to be almost perfect including the geography. Assuming the basic laws of physics and thermodynamics you cannot dissipate that much energy so quickly considering the time over land and the forward speed of the system. Ernesto will weaken depending upon what portion of Cuba it crosses and it's rate of forward speed. The further west it crosses the less hostile the geography. It then has enough extremely warm water and favorable conditions to rebuild itself. I think it will landfall in Cuba as a Cat 2 and exit Cuba as a Cat 1. After that I'll wait and see since crystal balls and intensity forecasting only make the forecaster look silly. All of this is assuming the system is stacked when it crosses Cuba. The eastern Caribbean is the graveyard of hurricanes for 2 reasons; one, the geography and two, the forward speed of the systems in many cases has outrun the LLC. This is not the scenario in Ernesto's case. I don't make absolute statements in weather they are what I call making no sense.

[Toadstool]

About Eastern Cuba, the best hurricane to ask how conditions are, geographically speaking, is Hurricane Flora that spent a few days over the island and came as a 3 and left as a 1.

That hurricane Flora track would be good news for the US/Mexico.

Interesting how anyone even suggesting a hit to the FL penninsula yesterday got flamed because the "pro mets" said it wouldn't.
At this rate it will hit South Florida.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Cool beans Air Force Met, your contribution around here is invaluable of course. Thanks for taking the time from your busy schedule to come and discuss with us weather freaks, and sharing your interest and insights.

[KWT]

I think what is more notable AFM is the way Fredrick bombe din the gulf of Mexico. Other stroms have done this when they have exited the Gulf of Mexico, such as Dennis and also Charley and I'm sure there are other examples, though most of those did exit via the west coast of the Yucatan.

Don't under-estimate how fast these storms can re-explode after getting back into the gulf, very low shear and high heat content thansk t othe loop current can cause storms to go bang!

[Emmett_Brown]

When the pressure rises this much, there is something definitely wrong. I just can't pinpoint the problem yet.

I'm no pro met, but IMO when the pressure jumps 7 mb in a couple of hours, it's becuase of a disruption to the core of the storm. Probably some land interaction and shear.

2 thing might happen:

1. Could cross the S coast of Haiti this afternoon
2. Center could be bounced or reform more to the W, and it could get back on track.

The sharp pressure rise makes me believe that the core is still in the formative stage. It could bounce around today and drive everybody nuts.

[ThunderMate]

Why is it moving NW?? also how much longer will this NW track continue as it is vital to its track in the long and short term.

[drezee]

Ernesto may never pass over Haiti. As it has in his recent past, Ernesto's center moves to the convection. As it passed close to haiti the convection will likely be SW of the Island. I doubt the center will stay moving NW for long.

[HURAKAN]

About Eastern Cuba, the best hurricane to ask how conditions are, geographically speaking, is Hurricane Flora that spent a few days over the island and came as a 3 and left as a 1.

That hurricane Flora track would be good news for the US/Mexico.

Interesting how anyone even suggesting a hit to the FL penninsula yesterday got flamed because the "pro mets" said it wouldn't.
At this rate it will hit South Florida.

AGREE 100%. IT'S TIME TO KEEP A VERY CLOSE EYE ON THE HURRICANE HERE IN SOUTH FLORIDA.

[THead]

i dont see how this can get to a cat 3 in the gulf... there is no way. if it spends 1 full day over or near cuba it will weaken by at least 20mph and then it will have 24-48 hours until it hits FL. I only see a high cat 1.

Just look back one year at the intensification of storms in the gulf and the carib......no way we would have 2 175mph cat 5's and the lowest pressure ever recorded in the basin either!

I really hope you're right, I got all I wanted from Wilma last year, and that was a strong Cat 1 over my county, according to most everyone. Also read that a strong Cat 1 is not DEAD or KILLED!! It can still do plenty of damage, and its why I'm in Georgia now.

[Scorpion]

There's practically no shear over the system. Only thing could be land interaction, but Dennis handled it well. So I'm not sure.

[rnbaida]

i dont see how this can get to a cat 3 in the gulf... there is no way. if it spends 1 full day over or near cuba it will weaken by at least 20mph and then it will have 24-48 hours until it hits FL. I only see a high cat 1.

Just look back one year at the intensification of storms in the gulf and the carib......no way we would have 2 175mph cat 5's and the lowest pressure ever recorded in the basin either!

I really hope you're right, I got all I wanted from Wilma last year, and that was a strong Cat 1 over my county, according to most everyone. Also read that a strong Cat 1 is not DEAD or KILLED!! It can still do plenty of damage, and its why I'm in Georgia now.

I am in gerogia as well. Do you think we will get any rain from ernesto as it passes over florida?

[6SpeedTA95]

About Eastern Cuba, the best hurricane to ask how conditions are, geographically speaking, is Hurricane Flora that spent a few days over the island and came as a 3 and left as a 1.

That hurricane Flora track would be good news for the US/Mexico.

Interesting how anyone even suggesting a hit to the FL penninsula yesterday got flamed because the "pro mets" said it wouldn't.
At this rate it will hit South Florida.

I specifically remember a few pro mets saying NEVER rule anything out in response to a couple of "this thing has a zero percent chance of hitting florida" or "florida is in the clear".

[HURAKAN]

Something to add, Ernesto could become the deadliest hurricane of the season as it delivers lots of rain over Haiti. We already know what has happened over the past few years in this poor country.

[johngaltfla]

Thank you AFM. And I do wish you had not mentioned the E storm from hell, Elena. That storm made a huge mess here. As far as the NW track, do you think that will end within the next 12 hours as the high forces it more WNW or ???

[drezee]

The system is restructuring itself that is why the pressure is rising. Come on people, the NHC are not idiots. It is a hurricane. The system is restructing itself at the mid-levels right now. This is a common occurence. The low level pressure rises during these cycles and then drops rather rapidly after completion. Expect Ernesto to develop eand eye in the next 6-12 hours and proceed to intensify at a good clip thereafter.

last recon fix was 280 or just N of west...likely a reform closer to deepest convection

[ThunderMate]

This is looking more and more like Charlie to me and also i think this has a chance to go up the east coast to give all of us along the SE and MID Atlantic some very well needed rain but the forcast has it emerging as a 80 mph hurricane over the atlantic....

[cycloneye]

683
WHXX04 KWBC 271128
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO 05L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 16.6 72.8 295./ 8.0
6 17.3 73.5 319./ 9.9
12 18.0 74.2 315./ 9.9
18 18.7 74.7 321./ 8.6
24 19.5 75.5 315./10.2
30 20.2 76.3 311./10.7
36 20.9 77.2 309./10.7
42 21.2 78.1 289./ 9.0
48 21.6 79.2 290./11.4
54 22.0 80.3 289./10.5
60 22.3 81.1 294./ 8.4
66 22.8 81.9 300./ 8.0
72 23.2 82.5 305./ 6.9
78 23.8 83.1 311./ 8.4
84 24.3 83.6 318./ 6.8
90 24.7 84.1 309./ 6.0
96 25.2 84.3 339./ 5.8
102 25.9 84.7 329./ 7.8
108 26.6 84.8 357./ 6.5
114 27.2 84.6 11./ 6.0
120 28.0 84.6 359./ 8.7
126 29.0 84.7 357./ 9.7
6z GFDL

[HURAKAN]

Remember that at the beginning the GFDL was saying a track close to the one now forecasted? It seems the GFDL wasn't crazy either.

[THead]

i dont see how this can get to a cat 3 in the gulf... there is no way. if it spends 1 full day over or near cuba it will weaken by at least 20mph and then it will have 24-48 hours until it hits FL. I only see a high cat 1.

Just look back one year at the intensification of storms in the gulf and the carib......no way we would have 2 175mph cat 5's and the lowest pressure ever recorded in the basin either!

I really hope you're right, I got all I wanted from Wilma last year, and that was a strong Cat 1 over my county, according to most everyone. Also read that a strong Cat 1 is not DEAD or KILLED!! It can still do plenty of damage, and its why I'm in Georgia now.

I am in gerogia as well. Do you think we will get any rain from ernesto as it passes over florida?

I'm in north Ga., so if the center passes well east of us, I think we'll be on the drier side. If it comes shooting up thru the panhandle of Fla though, on a more northerly trek, it could be a wet one up here.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

There is still some shear at the lower levels as evidenced by the flow S of the system moving SW to NE.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html