Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[HollynLA]

Ernesto seems to have plenty of tricks up it's sleeve and I don't think he's quite done yet. He has had everyone from Texas to Florida on edge this weekend but like I said, I don't think he's done with the surprises. I hope for you guys on Florida's west coast that this track does not pan out. We know you don't want it but no one else does either.

[Downdraft]

i dont see how this can get to a cat 3 in the gulf... there is no way. if it spends 1 full day over or near cuba it will weaken by at least 20mph and then it will have 24-48 hours until it hits FL. I only see a high cat 1.

You probably didn't see Wilma going from a ho-hum system to the strongest hurricane recorded in the Atlantic Basin in less than 24 hours last year either did you?

[Tampa_God]

About Eastern Cuba, the best hurricane to ask how conditions are, geographically speaking, is Hurricane Flora that spent a few days over the island and came as a 3 and left as a 1.

That hurricane Flora track would be good news for the US/Mexico.

Interesting how anyone even suggesting a hit to the FL penninsula yesterday got flamed because the "pro mets" said it wouldn't.
At this rate it will hit South Florida.

I specifically remember a few pro mets saying NEVER rule anything out in response to a couple of "this thing has a zero percent chance of hitting florida" or "florida is in the clear".

They jinxed it!

[drezee]

Newest GFDL would be a horrible thing for the big bend!!!


120kts and moving due N funneling water into the bowl

[rockyman]

Thank you AFM. And I do wish you had not mentioned the E storm from hell, Elena. That storm made a huge mess here. As far as the NW track, do you think that will end within the next 12 hours as the high forces it more WNW or ???

Yep...Elena was a storm from hell...One thing that worries me about the 06z GFS...the system stalls at the Panhandle coast and then slowly drifts to the west and dissipates...basically what Elena did (except Ernesto's drift would occur after landfall)...I would love to hear any comments about the possibility of steering currents collapsing as the system turns east toward the west coast of Florida...Is there any reason to believe Elena could happen again (i.e. turn back west)?

[Scorpion]

Newest GFDL would be a horrible thing for the big bend!!!


120kts and moving due N funneling water into the bowl

Whered you get the graphics from?

[rockyman]

Newest GFDL would be a horrible thing for the big bend!!!


120kts and moving due N funneling water into the bowl

Link? Thanks!

[drezee]

Newest GFDL would be a horrible thing for the big bend!!!


120kts and moving due N funneling water into the bowl

Whered you get the graphics from?

Accuweather Pro

[miamicanes177]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

HURRICANE ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060827 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060827 1200 060828 0000 060828 1200 060829 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.3N 73.4W 18.6N 75.2W 19.4N 76.7W 20.0N 78.0W
BAMM 17.3N 73.4W 18.7N 75.4W 19.6N 77.1W 20.4N 78.4W
A98E 17.3N 73.4W 18.2N 74.8W 19.1N 76.2W 20.3N 77.8W
LBAR 17.3N 73.4W 18.7N 74.9W 20.0N 76.5W 21.1N 77.8W
SHIP 65KTS 79KTS 91KTS 99KTS
DSHP 65KTS 79KTS 75KTS 77KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060829 1200 060830 1200 060831 1200 060901 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 20.5N 79.4W 21.5N 82.0W 22.3N 84.3W 23.3N 86.0W
BAMM 20.9N 79.8W 22.3N 82.0W 24.1N 83.9W 26.8N 85.3W
A98E 21.7N 79.6W 24.9N 83.0W 28.0N 84.4W 31.2N 84.0W
LBAR 21.9N 79.1W 23.3N 80.5W 24.7N 81.7W 26.6N 82.4W
SHIP 105KTS 109KTS 105KTS 95KTS
DSHP 58KTS 61KTS 58KTS 40KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.3N LONCUR = 73.4W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.4N LONM12 = 72.1W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 9KT
LATM24 = 14.9N LONM24 = 70.5W
WNDCUR = 65KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 50KT
CENPRS = 997MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 80NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 50NM

$$

[rockyman]

GFDL is now updated here:

[SouthFloridawx]

Now that is a consensus good night!

[Scorpion]

Wow, SHIPS even stronger now.

[kenl01]

tell me why it wont die off? if it goes over the mountains, is it going to strengthen? you are making no sense!

OK...I'm up...and I will be the first to admit I am very surprised the GFS scored a coup. Crow served. IT's hard to trust it when a few days ago it hard the ridge to end all ridges over the GOM and now it has a trof.

Now you know why we don't trust it...but it is aligned with the others (or the others have aligned with it) and it started the correct trend. I give it props. That's why you NEVER say NEVER in weather.

I think you need to re-define your terms. Kill it means dissipate it in weather-speak. That clearly will NOT happen. If you think it will, cite one example. Cuba does not dissipate storms very efficiently...especially hurricanes...I don't care what path they take. It will weaken them...especially if they go lengthwise...but it by no means will kill it. You need to get the terminology correct. You mean to say weaken it.

Fredrick did not die off over Cuba...and he spent a GREAT deal of time over Hispainiola AND Cuba. Hispainiola is much more destructive than Cuba ever thought about being.

Look how much time Elena spent over Cuba:
Elena

Elena was a TD, not a hurricane...when she went over Cuba. How much better do you think a hurricane will hold together than a weak old depression?

I admit, weather can be a big pain in the butt ! Very hard to predict ! I smelled trouble a couple of days ago when I noticed the shear relaxing over time (or ahead of the path of Ernesto, as was expected, unfortunately.......) This was a different scenario compared to Chris.

Hopefully everybody will stay safe........

[johngaltfla]

Newest GFDL would be a horrible thing for the big bend!!!


120kts and moving due N funneling water into the bowl

It wouldn't do wonders for Tampa Bay either. The flooding from a Cat 3 skirting the coast would be incredible...

[Air Force Met]

Interesting how anyone even suggesting a hit to the FL penninsula yesterday got flamed because the "pro mets" said it wouldn't.
At this rate it will hit South Florida.

Well...Pro-Mets...including the ones at the NHC...have to make a judgment based on data...all available data. We don't get to sit around the house or dorm room in our underwear and make guesses based on gut feelings that have nothing to back them up....then when we are wrong...just say "Oh...well I'll have my crow medium-rare....haha."

We have to make a decision...that when we ARE wrong...we can say to our bosses...commanders...clients..."I based a decision on XYZ given this data set...and if I had to do it all over again...I would do it again."

When all the data says one thing and you forecast something else...and you get burned...it does not bode well for your career. This isn't the profession for cowboys...although some cowboys have done well with it.

As far as suggesting a hit on Florida...I personally have NEVER had a problem with anyone suggesting it....AS LONG AS YOU BACK IT UP WITH SOMETHING! Don't just say "I have a feeling." Because if your feelings are so good...we could just fire Stacey Stewart...Avila...and the whole bunch and hire you. We could save a bunch of money on saleries and running computer models! YOu could just put out a discussion that says "Based on my feelings...a track across south Florida seems reasonable. Disregard all the model guidance taking Hurricane Ernesto into the central Gulf."

So...that is my complaint...if you have an opinion....GREAT! We all do...but back it up with something. These one line comments on an analysis thread that eat away the space...and all the opinions based on nothing are one reason that it is getting real hard for me to come here. I post something to help someone see something and three minutes later its 2 pages down replaced by a bunch of "I agrees" and "My gut says."

Matter of fact...few will read this because it will be 5 pages back in an hour...not sure why I bothered.

/rant off.

[miamicanes177]

Wow, SHIPS even stronger now.

yeh but they do not take into account land interaction.

[6SpeedTA95]

Now that is a consensus good night!

Goodnight? More like good morning?

[rainstorm]

if the center goes over the haiti peninsula, then all those tracks will be off

[storms in NC]

the NGPS puts it over top of me. I am glad for one thing it will change again.

[SWFLA_CANE]

I hope the track shifts again and takes the storm away from SWFLA. If not by Tuesday night I will be working some very long hours for an indefinite amount of time.