Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[wxman57]

Bad GFS! Bad GFS!

Oh, wait, that was yesterday....

[Thatsmrhurricane]

"Matter of fact...few will read this because it will be 5 pages back in an hour...not sure why I bothered."

Because you elevate the discussion around here.

[drezee]

[HURAKAN]

By the way, could we expect another shift eastward at 11 AM since now the storm is moving NWard?

[rockyman]

The ridge is not gone (yet)...the flow over Cuba is from east to west..so I expect the system to curve back to a more westerly heading soon...I believe that the NW jog this morning has a lot to do with interaction with Haiti. In the long run, however, this sytem WILL turn northward...even if there were no trough coming...look at the orientation of the ridge core off the East Coast...it's elongated NW to SE...with nothing to show a building ridge, I think the Florida solution is a good one for now (based on available data).

Here's the current steering map:
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... dlm2Z.html

[Aquawind]

By the way, could we expect another shift eastward at 11 AM since now the storm is moving NWard?

Sure.. They went this far..LOL They will adjust the forecast as the data suggests liike all good forecasters..

[rnbaida]

GFDL has winds of up to 130knts before landfall in FL....I think that is way too extreme.

[Toadstool]

Interesting how anyone even suggesting a hit to the FL penninsula yesterday got flamed because the "pro mets" said it wouldn't.
At this rate it will hit South Florida.

Well...Pro-Mets...including the ones at the NHC...have to make a judgment based on data...all available data. We don't get to sit around the house or dorm room in our underwear and make guesses based on gut feelings that have nothing to back them up....then when we are wrong...just say "Oh...well I'll have my crow medium-rare....haha."

We have to make a decision...that when we ARE wrong...we can say to our bosses...commanders...clients..."I based a decision on XYZ given this data set...and if I had to do it all over again...I would do it again."

When all the data says one thing and you forecast something else...and you get burned...it does not bode well for your career. This isn't the profession for cowboys...although some cowboys have done well with it.

As far as suggesting a hit on Florida...I personally have NEVER had a problem with anyone suggesting it....AS LONG AS YOU BACK IT UP WITH SOMETHING! Don't just say "I have a feeling." Because if your feelings are so good...we could just fire Stacey Stewart...Avila...and the whole bunch and hire you. We could save a bunch of money on saleries and running computer models! YOu could just put out a discussion that says "Based on my feelings...a track across south Florida seems reasonable. Disregard all the model guidance taking Hurricane Ernesto into the central Gulf."

So...that is my complaint...if you have an opinion....GREAT! We all do...but back it up with something. These one line comments on an analysis thread that eat away the space...and all the opinions based on nothing are one reason that it is getting real hard for me to come here. I post something to help someone see something and three minutes later its 2 pages down replaced by a bunch of "I agrees" and "My gut says."

Matter of fact...few will read this because it will be 5 pages back in an hour...not sure why I bothered.

/rant off.

I agree with you, and certainly don't believe I could do a better job. I was just amazed at how when someone said "I think it's irresponsible to say it is impossible to hit the FL pennisula" yesterday, they got flamed instead of applause (and no, the person wasn't me). The flames went on and on even after the person apologized for even suggesting it hit FL. So just venting my own rant of frustration on that. /rant off.

Regarding the number of pages, I think that's why sometimes we're not all on the same page.

[johngaltfla]

Need more RECON. Too bad we can't keep them in there 24/7. I wonder what we will see when this hits Cuba. The scenarios and history of storms crossing Cuba is an amazing thing. Especially with what Charley and Dennis did.

[chris_fit]

So um I just woke up and all the pro-mets were very confident that FL is in the OK..... however the offical track takes this guy just north of Tampa now? What the Heck????????

[rnbaida]

[Evil Jeremy]

ok, listin to me. i was the one who knew this thing was going to affect SFL, even before it was in the cone, and really none of trusted me. well, i was right!

[drezee]

Interesting how anyone even suggesting a hit to the FL penninsula yesterday got flamed because the "pro mets" said it wouldn't.
At this rate it will hit South Florida.

Well...Pro-Mets...including the ones at the NHC...have to make a judgment based on data...all available data. We don't get to sit around the house or dorm room in our underwear and make guesses based on gut feelings that have nothing to back them up....then when we are wrong...just say "Oh...well I'll have my crow medium-rare....haha."

Hey AFM, you could have left Toad a little pride....

[Thatsmrhurricane]

I don't see the monster ridge building either, at least not over the SE US, like there was talk about 4 days ago. But what do I know?

[stormspotter]

Something is not right, can't put my finger on it, but its not right. This storm will not be visiting S or SW Florida. There have been only a couple rare approaches to Florida like the models suggest. Look for one of two scenarios to play out. One - The hurricane slows considerably as it makes it trek, along, in and over Cuba, leading to a reemgergence early on Thur off the North Western tip of Cuba to then threaten Western or Central Gulf from Galveston to Ft. Walton beach. Two - Storm heads slowly northwest across Haiti, north, east of Florida threatening N.C. to Maine.

[GraysonDave]

Matter of fact...few will read this because it will be 5 pages back in an hour...not sure why I bothered.

/rant off.

AFM, I'm new here but already respect your posts quite a bit. Don't let the idiots dissuade you. Carry on, sir.

[HollynLA]

I think we've had enough of the "I told you so"s. While we did see a major track shift that no one expected 24 hours ago, it's still 5 days out and this forecasted track has changed several times over the last 48 hours, and it could definitely change again. It's moving around with all the available data, so while the "I told you so"s are rampant this morning, just remember, you could be eating crow with everyone else if the track changes again (and it very well may).

[6SpeedTA95]

Something is not right, can't put my finger on it, but its not right. This storm will not be visiting S or SW Florida. There have been only a couple rare approaches to Florida like the models suggest. Look for one of two scenarios to play out. One - The hurricane slows considerably as it makes it trek, along, in and over Cuba, leading to a reemgergence early on Thur off the North Western tip of Cuba to then threaten Western or Central Gulf from Galveston to Ft. Walton beach. Two - Storm heads slowly northwest across Haiti, north, east of Florida threatening N.C. to Maine.

Ummmm what?

[DelrayMorris]

...but...man...another Florida Hurricane.

That will be the death of the Homeowners Insurance industry in Florida. It doesn't matter if it hits me in SE FL, Tampa, or the Keys. There is already no way to get homeowners insurance... My company (Poe) actually went out of business after Wilma. I'm stuck with Citizen's now.

[miamicanes177]

If this spends 48 hours over cuba then it can R.I.P. You can forget about rapid intensification right now too...it looks to be losing of its punch right now due to land interaction. Thank goodness.