Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[storms in NC]

GFDL is now updated here:

This is what stormspotter was talking about

[Air Force Met]

If this spends 48 hours over cuba then it can R.I.P. You can forget about rapid intensification right now too...it looks to be losing of its punch right now due to land interaction. Thank goodness.

Elena did...as a TD no less.

Edit: Ivan spend a LOT of time over land...including traveling over the Smokies...He didn't R.I.P.

Cuba doesn't kill storms...it can hurt them...but doesn't kill them. Please give me one example of a hurricane that Cuba killed.

....and this is what I am talking about...let's back up our posts with some actual facts and data.

Thanks.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

GFS 90hrs approaching the west coast of FL. However, notice the ridge eroding Westward? This is what I have been seeing in the runs. Each run has this feature more E than the last.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcgengifs/

[rnbaida]

cloud tops are warming and it doesnt reallt look very good. I thnk that winds will stay at 75mph until it reaches cuba then weaken to 55-60mph and then hit Fl as a cat1-2 hurricane...

[HollynLA]

i was the one who knew this thing was going to affect SFL,

You may very well be right but before you go tooting your own horn and bashing others, it hasn't even reached the gulf yet, so everyone may be wrong.

[kenl01]

Interesting how anyone even suggesting a hit to the FL penninsula yesterday got flamed because the "pro mets" said it wouldn't.
At this rate it will hit South Florida.

Well...Pro-Mets...including the ones at the NHC...have to make a judgment based on data...all available data. We don't get to sit around the house or dorm room in our underwear and make guesses based on gut feelings that have nothing to back them up....then when we are wrong...just say "Oh...well I'll have my crow medium-rare....haha."

We have to make a decision...that when we ARE wrong...we can say to our bosses...commanders...clients..."I based a decision on XYZ given this data set...and if I had to do it all over again...I would do it again."

When all the data says one thing and you forecast something else...and you get burned...it does not bode well for your career. This isn't the profession for cowboys...although some cowboys have done well with it.

As far as suggesting a hit on Florida...I personally have NEVER had a problem with anyone suggesting it....AS LONG AS YOU BACK IT UP WITH SOMETHING! Don't just say "I have a feeling." Because if your feelings are so good...we could just fire Stacey Stewart...Avila...and the whole bunch and hire you. We could save a bunch of money on saleries and running computer models! YOu could just put out a discussion that says "Based on my feelings...a track across south Florida seems reasonable. Disregard all the model guidance taking Hurricane Ernesto into the central Gulf."

So...that is my complaint...if you have an opinion....GREAT! We all do...but back it up with something. These one line comments on an analysis thread that eat away the space...and all the opinions based on nothing are one reason that it is getting real hard for me to come here. I post something to help someone see something and three minutes later its 2 pages down replaced by a bunch of "I agrees" and "My gut says."

Matter of fact...few will read this because it will be 5 pages back in an hour...not sure why I bothered.

/rant off.

Great post !
I agree you have to pack it with with some sort of data before coming to a logical conclusion. Like yesterday, I noticed the Long range GFS had the idea of taking this thing into the eastern GOM, stalling it, then move across north FL and off the SE coast. Not that I bought it yet, but if it hadn't shown this, I would have said nothing at all about this idea. It's possible the GFS may be correct, but time will tell. You can't base weather on feelings ! That's like saying "I think Chris will be a cat 5 hurricane and hit NYC"

[Starburst]

Stormspotter is right the track has shifted from LA to South Florida in 24 hours over half the gulf and now models have shifted back to the Florida panhandle so your roller coaster ride is not over

[kenl01]

delete..

[Derek Ortt]

its being sheared again by a second UL, the one the models missed

[miamicanes177]

its being sheared again by a second UL, the one the models missed

And it actually being impacted by land interaction, which it was not supposed to make landfall on haiti, but is hours from doing so.

[Tampa_God]

cloud tops are warming and it doesnt reallt look very good. I thnk that winds will stay at 75mph until it reaches cuba then weaken to 55-60mph and then hit Fl as a cat1-2 hurricane...

The Waters south of Cuba are very warm. I say a weak Cat 2 before a Cuba hit

[bombarderoazul]

This is the ugliest looking cat 1 ever.

[Scorpion]

its being sheared again by a second UL, the one the models missed

How long do you expect that to last?

[Air Force Met]

ok, listin to me. i was the one who knew this thing was going to affect SFL, even before it was in the cone, and really none of trusted me. well, i was right!

Oh you are so smart! Next NHC conference call I'll tell Stacy Stewart there is a new king in town and he and the rest of the gang should quit...because we have a gut-call forecaster to take their place that is a lot better than all the other pro-mets.

Glad we have you here. Here...you can take my place.

[Opal storm]

It's being sheared and it has a lot of land to go over in Cuba.Not looking good for Ernesto.Looking at the new models,I really don't see this becoming a cat 3 anymore.

[Emmett_Brown]

its being sheared again by a second UL, the one the models missed

Hi Derek,

I can see the shear on the WV, but is am having trouble locating the second ULL... where is it?

Thanks

[rxdoc]

Derek, are you talking about the UL to the northeast of the system?

[miamicanes177]

Dr. Lyons has this passing NORTH of cuba, then turning to the west and tracking accross the entire length of cuba. That is wonderful news!

[bombarderoazul]

Dr. Lyons has this passing NORTH of cuba, then turning to the west and tracking accross the entire length of cuba. That is wonderful news!

Unless you live in Cuba.

[beachbum_al]

Stormspotter is right the track has shifted from LA to South Florida in 24 hours over half the gulf and now models have shifted back to the Florida panhandle so your roller coaster ride is not over

Do you have a link to those models showing this thing shifting back to the panhandle? The ones I have looked at this morning are showing more SE into FL and not the panhandle. Of course I could had looked at old models too so that is why I am asking.