Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

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Innotech
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#241 Postby Innotech » Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:57 am

this wasnt a FLorida storm before it got sheared. you couldnt possibly have predicted that shear would relocate the center and force a new direction. In all likelihood you just wishcasted a florida hit and got lucky. In any case, none of that matters now. Looks like the GFDL was actually correct. Its rather impressive if that turs out to be the case. Its even taking that bizarre northern path arouynd the periphery of the Ridge.

However, something Im noticing now is that the ridge itself seems fairly west of the hurricane. What is the possibility of it heading further north through the weakness above it and possibly impacting Miami?
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#242 Postby storms in NC » Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:57 am

from the wloop I think it will go across the eastern part of Cuba
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
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#243 Postby Scorpion » Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:58 am

Thatsmrhurricane wrote:Everything still N of guidance . . . I don't care if you want to call it a "trend" or center reformation.

All those clouds to Ernie's N . . . What is that? Outflow? ULL?


Its impossible to know that. We need a recon center fix. You cannot judge movement, especially at 9 mph, by watching convection.
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#244 Postby PTPatrick » Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:59 am

Has anybody noticed that the last GFS has a landfall WEST of Apalachicola now...looks like Panama City.
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#245 Postby Toadstool » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:00 am

Thatsmrhurricane wrote:Everything still N of guidance . . . I don't care if you want to call it a "trend" or center reformation.

All those clouds to Ernie's N . . . What is that? Outflow? ULL?


I'm interested too... it seems this is a "trend", and I wonder if the trend will continue?
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#246 Postby Lindaloo » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:00 am

CalmBeforeStorm wrote:Personally I have no problem with a wrong forecast. You are human. I do have a serious problem with another forecaster that made bold statements that Ernesto could not possibly hit the peninsula of Florida. Such statements are nothing but irresponsible and that forecaster owes the board an apology, whether or not his forecast validates or not.


What I have a problem with is bold statements like this being placed out on the open board. No one owes anyone an apology, especially one from one of our Pro Mets who take the time out of their busy lives to answer questions and try to help folks. You are out of line.
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#247 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:01 am

Jevo wrote:
Aquawind wrote:Get Back on Subject NOW! Mac check your PMs


OK now youre getting Paul FIRED up....... If Paul were a hurricane his name would be Hurricane Floytrinilma

Seriously though... AFM looking at the structure of the storm... He's damn ugly right now, albeit I dont think this storm has been "pretty" once.... If he follows the NHCs track at a cat 1 do you see him departing cuba as a TS or holding his status?


TS imo..

:firedevil:
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#248 Postby Jevo » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:01 am

fact789 wrote:how many times have i told the lot of ya that this was gonna be a florida storm?


awww you deserve a Image

The storm hasnt passed cuba yet..... cmon man keep your eye on the ball and stop with the I told you so's
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#249 Postby El Nino » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:01 am

rnbaida wrote:http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/287.jpgnice blowup in convection near the center...


I wouldn't be surprised if we see an eye forming in this blow of convection.
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#250 Postby Thatsmrhurricane » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:02 am

Yes recon please. The center could very well be under the S ball of convection. I mean that it has steadly gone N of track with time.
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#251 Postby wxwatcher2 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:03 am

Good morning everyone.

I'm an infrequent poster. I live in Central Florida so I will be affected by the storm if and when it cuts across the state.
I'm not a MET nor do I pretend to be. I make basic observations and like most of us rely on the models and the NHC to give me information.

I'm thankful that AFM and others freely offer to us what they see and are thinking. It's a great thing.

I see this attitude on a lot of boards be it weather related or sports or political. There are always bullies who want everyone to see how big and bad they are.
There really is no place for that on this board.

We are a community of weather entusiasts who are trying to track storms and protect life limb and property of ourselves and others should the need arise.

Cudo's to this board and 'most' here who participate. Don't let a few spoil it.

Have a great day and let's see where we are at 2300 hours tonight. I think we will know more by then.
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#252 Postby rnbaida » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:04 am

An eye is now clearly visible on infrared satellite imagery, and upper-level outflow channels have opened to the north and south. Wind shear has fallen to 5-10 knots, and an upper-level anticyclone (clockwise-rotating region of winds) has developed over Ernesto, a highly favorable situation for strengthening.


Jeff masters is saying this... anyone see this?
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#253 Postby Opal storm » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:04 am

This looks pretty disorganized (especially for a hurricane) from my point of view.I wonder if it's possible that recon will find yet another relocated center.
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#254 Postby Toadstool » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:06 am

Opal storm wrote:This looks pretty disorganized (especially for a hurricane) from my point of view.I wonder if it's possible that recon will find yet another relocated center.


Yes, it is a very strange looking storm... no wonder it's such a challenge. I wonder if above-average shear this year has thrown a curve ball named Ernesto?
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#255 Postby Innotech » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:08 am

who cares? Its a forum. Its not a big deal if somebody bashes someone. words on a screen cant do a thing.
Anyway, back to the storm, anyone sees the possible more northern track due to the rige being a bit further west and Ernesto slowing down? I think theres a possibility of a more eastern hit.
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#256 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:09 am

A little old but I think you can clearly see the center embedded in the convection.

http://tinyurl.com/mnqzz
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#257 Postby storms in NC » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:10 am

Innotech wrote:who cares? Its a forum. Its not a big deal if somebody bashes someone. words on a screen cant do a thing.
Anyway, back to the storm, anyone sees the possible more northern track due to the rige being a bit further west and Ernesto slowing down? I think theres a possibility of a more eastern hit.
\

I am seeing the same thing. Based on the wloop you can see that it could go over the east side of Cuba.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
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#258 Postby robbielyn » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:15 am

I see that it is still going wnw. It will clip the se side of eastern cuba but not the ne side. Not as of right now. It could change that's for sure.
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#259 Postby storms in NC » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:18 am

robbielyn wrote:I see that it is still going wnw. It will clip the se side of eastern cuba but not the ne side. Not as of right now. It could change that's for sure.


ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA
MONDAY MORNING
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#260 Postby Ivan14 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:20 am

This storm is just really odd looking. I have never seen a Hurricane that looked so odd!
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