Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1
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- Innotech
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this wasnt a FLorida storm before it got sheared. you couldnt possibly have predicted that shear would relocate the center and force a new direction. In all likelihood you just wishcasted a florida hit and got lucky. In any case, none of that matters now. Looks like the GFDL was actually correct. Its rather impressive if that turs out to be the case. Its even taking that bizarre northern path arouynd the periphery of the Ridge.
However, something Im noticing now is that the ridge itself seems fairly west of the hurricane. What is the possibility of it heading further north through the weakness above it and possibly impacting Miami?
However, something Im noticing now is that the ridge itself seems fairly west of the hurricane. What is the possibility of it heading further north through the weakness above it and possibly impacting Miami?
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- storms in NC
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from the wloop I think it will go across the eastern part of Cuba
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
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Thatsmrhurricane wrote:Everything still N of guidance . . . I don't care if you want to call it a "trend" or center reformation.
All those clouds to Ernie's N . . . What is that? Outflow? ULL?
Its impossible to know that. We need a recon center fix. You cannot judge movement, especially at 9 mph, by watching convection.
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CalmBeforeStorm wrote:Personally I have no problem with a wrong forecast. You are human. I do have a serious problem with another forecaster that made bold statements that Ernesto could not possibly hit the peninsula of Florida. Such statements are nothing but irresponsible and that forecaster owes the board an apology, whether or not his forecast validates or not.
What I have a problem with is bold statements like this being placed out on the open board. No one owes anyone an apology, especially one from one of our Pro Mets who take the time out of their busy lives to answer questions and try to help folks. You are out of line.
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- Aquawind
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Jevo wrote:Aquawind wrote:Get Back on Subject NOW! Mac check your PMs
OK now youre getting Paul FIRED up....... If Paul were a hurricane his name would be Hurricane Floytrinilma
Seriously though... AFM looking at the structure of the storm... He's damn ugly right now, albeit I dont think this storm has been "pretty" once.... If he follows the NHCs track at a cat 1 do you see him departing cuba as a TS or holding his status?
TS imo..

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- wxwatcher2
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Good morning everyone.
I'm an infrequent poster. I live in Central Florida so I will be affected by the storm if and when it cuts across the state.
I'm not a MET nor do I pretend to be. I make basic observations and like most of us rely on the models and the NHC to give me information.
I'm thankful that AFM and others freely offer to us what they see and are thinking. It's a great thing.
I see this attitude on a lot of boards be it weather related or sports or political. There are always bullies who want everyone to see how big and bad they are.
There really is no place for that on this board.
We are a community of weather entusiasts who are trying to track storms and protect life limb and property of ourselves and others should the need arise.
Cudo's to this board and 'most' here who participate. Don't let a few spoil it.
Have a great day and let's see where we are at 2300 hours tonight. I think we will know more by then.
I'm an infrequent poster. I live in Central Florida so I will be affected by the storm if and when it cuts across the state.
I'm not a MET nor do I pretend to be. I make basic observations and like most of us rely on the models and the NHC to give me information.
I'm thankful that AFM and others freely offer to us what they see and are thinking. It's a great thing.
I see this attitude on a lot of boards be it weather related or sports or political. There are always bullies who want everyone to see how big and bad they are.
There really is no place for that on this board.
We are a community of weather entusiasts who are trying to track storms and protect life limb and property of ourselves and others should the need arise.
Cudo's to this board and 'most' here who participate. Don't let a few spoil it.
Have a great day and let's see where we are at 2300 hours tonight. I think we will know more by then.
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An eye is now clearly visible on infrared satellite imagery, and upper-level outflow channels have opened to the north and south. Wind shear has fallen to 5-10 knots, and an upper-level anticyclone (clockwise-rotating region of winds) has developed over Ernesto, a highly favorable situation for strengthening.
Jeff masters is saying this... anyone see this?
Jeff masters is saying this... anyone see this?
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Opal storm wrote:This looks pretty disorganized (especially for a hurricane) from my point of view.I wonder if it's possible that recon will find yet another relocated center.
Yes, it is a very strange looking storm... no wonder it's such a challenge. I wonder if above-average shear this year has thrown a curve ball named Ernesto?
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- Innotech
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who cares? Its a forum. Its not a big deal if somebody bashes someone. words on a screen cant do a thing.
Anyway, back to the storm, anyone sees the possible more northern track due to the rige being a bit further west and Ernesto slowing down? I think theres a possibility of a more eastern hit.
Anyway, back to the storm, anyone sees the possible more northern track due to the rige being a bit further west and Ernesto slowing down? I think theres a possibility of a more eastern hit.
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- Aquawind
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A little old but I think you can clearly see the center embedded in the convection.
http://tinyurl.com/mnqzz
http://tinyurl.com/mnqzz
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- storms in NC
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\Innotech wrote:who cares? Its a forum. Its not a big deal if somebody bashes someone. words on a screen cant do a thing.
Anyway, back to the storm, anyone sees the possible more northern track due to the rige being a bit further west and Ernesto slowing down? I think theres a possibility of a more eastern hit.
I am seeing the same thing. Based on the wloop you can see that it could go over the east side of Cuba.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
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I see that it is still going wnw. It will clip the se side of eastern cuba but not the ne side. Not as of right now. It could change that's for sure.
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Robbielyn McCrary
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.
I know just about enough to sound like I know what I'm talking about sometimes. But for your safety please follow the nhc for truly professional forecasting.

- storms in NC
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robbielyn wrote:I see that it is still going wnw. It will clip the se side of eastern cuba but not the ne side. Not as of right now. It could change that's for sure.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/HR...
AND A NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT 24 HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF ERNESTO IS
EXPECTED TO PASS VERY NEAR SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI THIS AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN COAST OF CUBA
MONDAY MORNING
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