Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[rnbaida]

[cinlfla]

Navy WAM (Wave Action Model) putting Ernesto through the Cuba/Haiti slot and running up the east side like a buzz saw. This model has been spot on the last few years.

http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

I can't get your link to work

[Innotech]

Navy WAM (Wave Action Model) putting Ernesto through the Cuba/Haiti slot and running up the east side like a buzz saw. This model has been spot on the last few years.

http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

thats exactly the kind of path Im referring to. The ridge is too far west. The storm is too far south to catch it.

[jusforsean]

Navy WAM (Wave Action Model) putting Ernesto through the Cuba/Haiti slot and running up the east side like a buzz saw. This model has been spot on the last few years.

http://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

Cant access the link????

[Extremeweatherguy]

I'm beginning to wonder how well this will survive over Cuba. Seems like the NHC is too. That is probably why they took it to a Cat. 3 west of FL, to a Cat. 2.

Eastern Cuba = mountains.

[Innotech]

I wouldnt be so sure of that track over Cuba.

[SouthFloridawx]

I wouldnt be so sure of that track over Cuba.

Do you mean the short or long treck or the fact that it is possible to come out to the south of the southern bahamas and be an east coast thread?

[cinlfla]

I wouldnt be so sure of that track over Cuba.

I'm beginning to wonder if it will ever even make it to Cuba it keeps gaining Latitude.

[storms in NC]

let's see if they shift it more to the east.

[Aquawind]

I have seen systems avoid land before and take the path of least resistance.. I would sure like to see it ride the island for awhile before exiting into the warm waters ahead.

[Innotech]

I wouldnt be so sure of that track over Cuba.

Do you mean the short or long treck or the fact that it is possible to come out to the south of the southern bahamas and be an east coast thread?

this is just my opinion, but Im definitely noticing signs that the storm might be missing that ridge altogether. Then it will lose its main steering mechanism and Im not sure exactly what it will do at that point. It could still reach the ridge, but itsl ooking less likely. Hispaiola seems to be holding it back. o then it would possiby head into the southern Bahamas, and into Eastern Florida. That really should be considered a possibility now.

[El Nino]

If it makes it to the East of Fla peninsula, there's plenty of warm waters over there, with loopcurrent ...

[KWT]

Actually past the first 30-40 miles of that tip in eastern Cuba there aren't actually too many mountions to the west of that bar a few peaks here and there.

[jasons2k]

Interesting how anyone even suggesting a hit to the FL penninsula yesterday got flamed because the "pro mets" said it wouldn't.
At this rate it will hit South Florida.

Well...Pro-Mets...including the ones at the NHC...have to make a judgment based on data...all available data. We don't get to sit around the house or dorm room in our underwear and make guesses based on gut feelings that have nothing to back them up....then when we are wrong...just say "Oh...well I'll have my crow medium-rare....haha."

We have to make a decision...that when we ARE wrong...we can say to our bosses...commanders...clients..."I based a decision on XYZ given this data set...and if I had to do it all over again...I would do it again."

When all the data says one thing and you forecast something else...and you get burned...it does not bode well for your career. This isn't the profession for cowboys...although some cowboys have done well with it.

As far as suggesting a hit on Florida...I personally have NEVER had a problem with anyone suggesting it....AS LONG AS YOU BACK IT UP WITH SOMETHING! Don't just say "I have a feeling." Because if your feelings are so good...we could just fire Stacey Stewart...Avila...and the whole bunch and hire you. We could save a bunch of money on saleries and running computer models! YOu could just put out a discussion that says "Based on my feelings...a track across south Florida seems reasonable. Disregard all the model guidance taking Hurricane Ernesto into the central Gulf."

So...that is my complaint...if you have an opinion....GREAT! We all do...but back it up with something. These one line comments on an analysis thread that eat away the space...and all the opinions based on nothing are one reason that it is getting real hard for me to come here. I post something to help someone see something and three minutes later its 2 pages down replaced by a bunch of "I agrees" and "My gut says."

Matter of fact...few will read this because it will be 5 pages back in an hour...not sure why I bothered.

/rant off.

Awesome, Awesome, that's all I can say.



And yes, I've intentionally included the quote so it gets bumped and not buried so quickly.

[mtm4319]

I don't see any kind of major hurricane if it spends 24-48 hours over Cuba, as it looks like could happen.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Hats off to the GFS the last 2 days. I even thought is was crazy yesterday but looks like it will end up being right.

[beachbum_al]

This is the latest from one of our mets in Mobile.

Quick Sunday AM Ernesto Update
A major track shift in the models. The relocation of Ernesto's center to the northeast, and a weaker long term ridge has resulted in almost a model consensus of a threat more to the eastern Gulf. A trough currently in the southern Rockies might keep the upper ridge farther east resulting in this path shift. This puts the peninsula of Florida at a higher risk. The Canadian model showed this Saturday, and the GFS (at a slower pace) to an extent. Most all model guidance indicates a similar forecast path. The GFDN is the farthest west outlier closer to our coastal region. In the short term, Ernesto might have more land interaction especially over Cuba through Tuesday. More land interaction would in theory weaken the system. But, a movement back into the southeastern Gulf would allow intensification once again. So, 24 hours ago, we were in the center forecast cone. Now, we are on the far western edge. Still, even with a forecast path shift, do not let down your guard. A lot can still change with the current forecast. I will have another posting this evening.
Published Sunday, August 27, 2006 8:07 AM by David Glenn

http://community.wpmi.com/blogs/davids_weather_blog/archive/2006/08/27/803026.aspx

[jenmrk]

http://www.haitiaction.net/News/storm/IVAN/9_10_4.html

not sure if this link will work but it goes with a question, this was Ivan's 5 day out proj path, didn't he miss Cuba, are there any similarities with weather patterns?

[Scorpion]

I find it ridiculous that so many people are writing off Ernesto just because it will hit Cuba.

[Innotech]

I find it ridiculous that so many people are writing off Ernesto just because it will hit Cuba.

Im not sure it will hit enough of cuba to even matter.