Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Brent]

HURRICANE ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

ERNESTO'S CLOUD PATTERN IS STILL A BIT RAGGED-LOOKING BUT THERE ARE
SOME BANDING FEATURES OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE...AND CIRRUS
OUTFLOW IS EXPANDING OVER THE WESTERN PART OF THE CIRCULATION. THE
LAST AIRCRAFT-EXTRAPOLATED CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 997 MB...SUGGESTING
THAT THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE OR NO STRENGTHENING OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE SHIFTING WESTWARD
TOWARD YUCATAN...THE SHEAR OVER ERNESTO IS QUICKLY DIMINISHING.
THUS THE PRIMARY CONSIDERATION IN THE INTENSITY FORECAST OVER THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WILL BE HOW MUCH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE INTERACTS
WITH LAND. ON THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WOULD BE
OVER CUBA FROM HOUR 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE SOME
WEAKENING AND THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST FOLLOWS THE DECAY
SHIPS MODEL RATHER CLOSELY. HOWEVER...AFTER THE CENTER MOVES INTO
THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SIGNIFICANT RESTRENGTHENING IS
POSSIBLE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE OFFICIAL FORECAST INTENSITY
AT 96 HOURS ASSUMES SOME WEAKENING DUE TO INTERACTION WITH LAND.
HOWEVER....ERNESTO COULD APPROACH CATEGORY 3 STATUS PRIOR TO THE
PROJECTED LANDFALL IN WESTERN FLORIDA.

INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 310/8. A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK IS INDICATED BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WOULD TAKE ERNESTO OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION
OF CUBA. A MID-TROPOSPHERIC ANTICYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
DROPS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI IN 3-5 DAYS. THIS SHOULD CAUSE A
MORE NORTHWARD HEADING LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE 0600 UTC
RUNS OF THE GFS HAS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE PREVIOUS
RUN BUT THE 0600 UTC NOGAPS HAS SHIFTED TO THE EAST. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED SLIGHTLY MORE TO THE RIGHT TO BE CLOSER TO
THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THIS IS EAST OF THE LATEST GFDL MODEL TRACK.

A TROPICAL STORM OR HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE FLORIDA
KEYS AS EARLY AS 2100 UTC TODAY.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 27/1500Z 17.6N 73.7W 65 KT
12HR VT 28/0000Z 18.6N 74.9W 75 KT
24HR VT 28/1200Z 20.0N 76.5W 85 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 29/0000Z 21.5N 78.3W 75 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 29/1200Z 23.1N 80.3W 65 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 30/1200Z 25.5N 82.5W 85 KT
96HR VT 31/1200Z 28.0N 82.5W 80 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1200Z 31.0N 81.0W 60 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[mtm4319]

[SouthFloridawx]

SXXX50 KNHC 271459
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 03 KNHC
1449. 1740N 06500W 03939 0245 043 005 046 010 006 04234 0000000000
1450 1740N 06502W 04126 0256 039 004 036 019 005 04435 0000000000
1450. 1740N 06504W 04306 0242 053 005 024 025 006 04627 0000000000
1451 1740N 06506W 04467 0255 061 007 012 033 007 04802 0000000000
1451. 1740N 06508W 04653 0276 078 007 001 047 008 05010 0000000000
1452 1740N 06509W 04846 0297 074 008 017 057 008 05225 0000000000
1452. 1740N 06511W 05015 0309 095 005 029 069 005 05406 0000000000
1453 1740N 06513W 05157 0318 112 005 037 087 006 05557 0000000000
1453. 1739N 06515W 05282 0327 110 007 043 093 008 05692 0000000000
1454 1739N 06517W 05408 0336 119 010 047 109 010 05827 0000000000
1454. 1739N 06519W 05482 0339 115 011 055 111 011 05904 0000000000
1455 1739N 06521W 05493 0340 115 011 055 109 012 05917 0000000000
1455. 1739N 06523W 05482 0340 121 011 053 111 011 05905 0000000000
1456 1739N 06526W 05489 0340 119 011 055 111 012 05912 0000000000
1456. 1739N 06528W 05492 0340 120 012 055 115 012 05916 0000000000
1457 1739N 06530W 05488 0339 123 011 055 111 011 05910 0000000000
1457. 1739N 06533W 05486 0338 122 012 055 113 013 05907 0000000000
1458 1738N 06535W 05486 0339 119 013 055 117 014 05908 0000000000
1458. 1738N 06538W 05485 0338 126 012 055 115 013 05906 0000000000
1459 1738N 06540W 05487 0338 122 012 055 113 013 05909 0000000000

[SouthFloridawx]

SXXX50 KNHC 271509
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 04 KNHC
1459. 1738N 06543W 05487 0337 117 013 053 053 014 05907 0000000000
1500 1738N 06545W 05485 0338 118 014 051 051 014 05906 0000000100
1500. 1738N 06547W 05487 0338 121 013 053 053 014 05909 0000000100
1501 1738N 06550W 05486 0338 125 013 051 051 014 05908 0000000100
1501. 1738N 06552W 05486 0339 124 013 051 051 014 05908 0000000100
1502 1737N 06555W 05486 0338 128 011 055 069 012 05908 0000000000
1502. 1737N 06557W 05488 0338 129 012 055 121 012 05910 0000000000
1503 1737N 06600W 05486 0337 125 012 051 127 013 05906 0000000000
1503. 1737N 06602W 05485 0337 126 012 051 127 013 05906 0000000000
1504 1737N 06605W 05487 0338 132 011 055 119 011 05909 0000000000
1504. 1737N 06607W 05486 0339 132 010 055 121 011 05909 0000000000
1505 1737N 06609W 05488 0340 132 010 055 129 010 05912 0000000000
1505. 1736N 06612W 05485 0340 141 009 055 135 009 05909 0000000000
1506 1736N 06614W 05487 0339 139 009 055 131 010 05910 0000000000
1506. 1736N 06616W 05486 0340 135 010 055 135 010 05910 0000000000
1507 1736N 06619W 05487 0338 139 010 055 151 010 05909 0000000000
1507. 1736N 06621W 05486 0339 142 011 055 149 011 05908 0000000000
1508 1736N 06624W 05487 0339 143 010 055 145 011 05910 0000000000
1508. 1736N 06626W 05485 0339 148 010 055 139 010 05908 0000000000
1509 1736N 06629W 05488 0339 147 011 055 145 011 05911 0000000000
;

[mtm4319]

[mtm4319]

The plane has taken off.

[mtm4319]

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 271510
97779 15034 10176 66000 54800 13012 55622 /4592
RMK AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 01

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 271519
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 05 KNHC
1509. 1735N 06631W 05487 0339 145 011 055 149 011 05909 0000000000
1510 1735N 06633W 05486 0338 143 011 051 157 011 05908 0000000000
1510. 1735N 06636W 05486 0338 143 011 051 155 011 05907 0000000000
1511 1735N 06638W 05486 0339 141 012 051 155 012 05909 0000000000
1511. 1735N 06641W 05486 0338 140 013 051 155 013 05907 0000000000
1512 1735N 06643W 05487 0337 146 013 051 157 013 05908 0000000000
1512. 1735N 06645W 05487 0336 145 014 051 157 014 05907 0000000000
1513 1734N 06648W 05485 0337 147 013 053 147 013 05905 0000000000
1513. 1734N 06650W 05488 0337 148 014 051 151 014 05909 0000000000
1514 1734N 06653W 05485 0337 151 014 051 155 014 05906 0000000000
1514. 1734N 06655W 05483 0337 155 013 049 165 014 05906 0000000000
1515 1734N 06657W 05482 0336 159 013 045 151 013 05908 0000000000
1515. 1734N 06700W 05481 0335 157 012 049 151 013 05906 0000000000
1516 1734N 06702W 05481 0335 160 012 049 127 012 05906 0000000000
1516. 1733N 06704W 05481 0335 157 013 049 117 013 05906 0000000000
1517 1733N 06707W 05481 0335 161 012 045 147 012 05905 0000000000
1517. 1733N 06709W 05481 0335 157 013 049 133 013 05906 0000000000
1518 1733N 06712W 05481 0336 158 013 055 115 014 05906 0000000000
1518. 1733N 06714W 05482 0336 157 013 055 113 013 05907 0000000000
1519 1733N 06716W 05481 0336 158 013 055 113 013 05906 0000000000
;

[brunota2003]

Southfloridawx...it works better if you code the data you posted that way you can sort out the flights...hold on...lets see if it works:

Code: Select all

000
NOUS42 KNHC 271500
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EDT SUN 27 AUG 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
         VALID 28/1100Z TO 29/1100Z AUG 2006
         TSPOD NUMBER.....06-089

I.  ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. HURRICANE ERNESTO
       FLIGHT ONE                 FLIGHT TWO
       A. 28/1800,29/0000Z        A. 29/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 1005A ERNESTO     B. NOAA2 1105A ERNESTO
       C. 28/1445Z                C. 28/1500Z
       D. 20.9N 77.5W             D. NA
       E. 28/1700Z TO 29/0000Z    E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT        F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

       FLIGHT THREE               FLIGHT FOUR
       A. 29/0000Z                A. 29/0000Z
       B. AFXXX 1205A ERNESTO     B. NOAA9 1305A ERNESTO
       C. 28/1800Z                C. 28/1800Z
       D. NA                      D. NA
       E. NA                      E. NA
       F. 24,000 TO 30,000 FT     F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

       FLIGHT FIVE                FLIGHT SIX
       A. 29/0600,1200Z           A. 29/1200Z
       B. AFXXX 1405A ERNESTO     B. NOAA9 1505A ERNESTO
       C. 29/0245Z                C. 29/0600Z
       D. 22.5N 79.5W             D. NA
       E. 29/0500Z TO 29/1200Z    E. NA
       F. SFC TO 10,000 FT        F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

    2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 3-HRLY FIXES AT 29/1500Z.
       G-IV FLIGHTS DEPARTING EVERY 12 HRS. A P-3 SFMR MISSION.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
    1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
    2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
                         JWP

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPRPD.shtml?
EDIT: It also works if you actually post the correct info...

[mtm4319]

705
SXXX50 KNHC 271529
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 06 KNHC
1519. 1733N 06719W 05482 0336 162 013 057 107 013 05907 0000000000
1520 1732N 06721W 05487 0336 160 012 061 109 013 05907 0000000000
1520. 1732N 06724W 05485 0335 156 012 063 109 012 05904 0000000000
1521 1732N 06726W 05486 0335 158 012 061 107 012 05905 0000000000
1521. 1732N 06728W 05487 0335 157 011 061 107 012 05905 0000000000
1522 1732N 06731W 05486 0334 150 014 059 121 014 05903 0000000000
1522. 1732N 06733W 05487 0335 149 014 055 131 014 05906 0000000000
1523 1732N 06736W 05486 0333 151 015 053 149 015 05902 0000000000
1523. 1731N 06738W 05487 0334 151 015 053 161 015 05904 0000000000
1524 1731N 06740W 05486 0333 150 014 057 127 015 05902 0000000000
1524. 1731N 06743W 05487 0332 150 014 059 113 014 05903 0000000000
1525 1731N 06745W 05486 0333 153 014 057 121 014 05902 0000000000
1525. 1731N 06748W 05487 0332 151 015 057 119 015 05903 0000000000
1526 1731N 06750W 05486 0332 153 015 055 125 015 05902 0000000000
1526. 1730N 06752W 05486 0332 158 015 055 147 016 05902 0000000000
1527 1730N 06755W 05487 0333 163 016 051 187 016 05904 0000000000
1527. 1729N 06757W 05486 0333 164 016 051 185 017 05902 0000000000
1528 1728N 06759W 05487 0334 168 016 051 189 016 05905 0000000000
1528. 1728N 06801W 05486 0334 167 016 051 183 016 05904 0000000000
1529 1727N 06804W 05486 0333 166 016 051 181 016 05902 0000000000
;

[JonathanBelles]

i now have access to real time weather flying up to 15 minutes, and i will be flying at 12:30 today. it may not be 100% accurate but ill let you know what i find.

[WindRunner]

i now have access to real time weather flying up to 15 minutes, and i will be flying at 12:30 today. it may not be 100% accurate but ill let you know what i find.

What are you talking about, fact?

[jlauderdal]

i now have access to real time weather flying up to 15 minutes, and i will be flying at 12:30 today. it may not be 100% accurate but ill let you know what i find.

have a few more cocktails and please report back to us.

[drezee]

212
SXXX50 KNHC 271539
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 07 KNHC
1529. 1727N 06806W 05487 0333 163 017 055 167 017 05904 0000000000
1530 1726N 06808W 05486 0333 159 017 057 133 017 05902 0000000000
1530. 1726N 06811W 05487 0332 156 017 059 127 017 05902 0000000000
1531 1725N 06813W 05487 0332 156 017 061 119 017 05903 0000000000
1531. 1725N 06815W 05486 0331 156 017 061 119 017 05901 0000000000
1532 1724N 06817W 05487 0331 154 018 059 119 018 05901 0000000000
1532. 1724N 06820W 05486 0330 158 017 061 123 017 05900 0000000000
1533 1723N 06822W 05487 0331 164 017 061 125 017 05901 0000000000
1533. 1723N 06824W 05487 0329 163 017 061 125 017 05900 0000000000
1534 1722N 06827W 05486 0331 158 017 059 125 017 05901 0000000000
1534. 1721N 06829W 05486 0331 155 018 057 125 018 05901 0000000000
1535 1721N 06831W 05487 0331 155 018 057 125 018 05901 0000000000
1535. 1720N 06834W 05486 0330 157 018 061 125 019 05900 0000000000
1536 1720N 06836W 05487 0328 153 019 059 127 020 05899 0000000000
1536. 1719N 06838W 05486 0327 153 020 057 127 020 05897 0000000000
1537 1719N 06841W 05486 0327 154 020 057 127 021 05897 0000000000
1537. 1718N 06843W 05487 0328 157 020 061 127 021 05898 0000000000
1538 1718N 06845W 05486 0328 161 020 061 125 020 05897 0000000000
1538. 1717N 06847W 05487 0327 163 021 063 123 021 05898 0000000000
1539 1716N 06850W 05486 0326 160 020 061 129 021 05896 0000000000

[mtm4319]

713
SXXX50 KNHC 271549
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 08 KNHC
1539. 1716N 06852W 05487 0327 159 021 061 127 021 05897 0000000000
1540 1715N 06854W 05485 0326 162 021 061 123 021 05895 0000000000
1540. 1715N 06856W 05487 0327 164 021 061 125 021 05897 0000000000
1541 1714N 06859W 05487 0327 162 021 061 127 022 05898 0000000000
1541. 1714N 06901W 05486 0326 161 022 061 121 022 05896 0000000000
1542 1713N 06903W 05486 0327 162 022 061 127 022 05897 0000000000
1542. 1713N 06906W 05486 0327 164 022 059 131 023 05897 0000000000
1543 1712N 06908W 05486 0327 164 023 061 131 023 05897 0000000000
1543. 1712N 06910W 05488 0327 160 024 059 133 024 05898 0000000000
1544 1711N 06912W 05486 0327 157 024 055 131 025 05897 0000000000
1544. 1710N 06915W 05486 0327 159 024 055 131 025 05896 0000000000
1545 1710N 06917W 05485 0327 158 025 055 133 025 05896 0000000000
1545. 1709N 06919W 05489 0326 160 024 055 137 025 05899 0000000000
1546 1709N 06922W 05486 0326 163 025 055 141 025 05895 0000000000
1546. 1708N 06924W 05487 0325 160 026 055 137 026 05896 0000000000
1547 1708N 06926W 05485 0326 160 026 055 139 026 05894 0000000000
1547. 1707N 06929W 05486 0325 160 027 055 137 027 05895 0000000000
1548 1707N 06931W 05487 0324 160 026 055 133 027 05895 0000000000
1548. 1706N 06933W 05486 0325 161 026 055 131 026 05895 0000000000
1549 1705N 06935W 05486 0324 161 026 055 133 027 05894 0000000000
;

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KNHC 271530
XXAA 77157 99176 70669 04376 99013 28443 09520 00114 27437 09519
92800 21825 10524 85532 17628 11521 70172 10044 11012 88999 77999
31313 09608 81513
51515 10190 50590
61616 AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 02
62626 SPL 1758N06694W 1521 MBL WND 10021 AEV 20604 DLM WND 11516
013515 WL150 09520 075 =
XXBB 77158 99176 70669 04376 00013 28443 11951 23209 22902 20844
33850 17628 44831 16634 55818 16863 66803 16269 77789 15665 88779
15073 99761 14059 11753 14068 22739 13065 33731 12050 44715 11040
55617 03833 66593 02857 77560 00332 88506 05162
21212 00013 09520 11939 10025 22850 11521 33716 10511 44678 11013
55647 14511 66588 15510 77552 14013 88526 15514 99506 15014
31313 09608 81513
51515 10190 50590
61616 AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 02
62626 SPL 1758N06694W 1521 MBL WND 10021 AEV 20604 DLM WND 11516
013515 WL150 09520 075 =
;

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 271532
97779 15304 10174 68100 54900 16017 56623 /4591
RMK AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 03

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 271559
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 09 KNHC
1549. 1705N 06938W 05489 0324 161 026 055 131 027 05897 0000000000
1550 1704N 06940W 05485 0325 163 026 055 127 026 05893 0000000000
1550. 1704N 06942W 05487 0324 164 026 055 125 027 05894 0000000000
1551 1703N 06945W 05488 0324 163 026 057 123 027 05896 0000000000
1551. 1703N 06947W 05483 0325 166 025 055 119 026 05891 0000000000
1552 1702N 06949W 05487 0325 171 025 061 109 026 05896 0000000000
1552. 1702N 06951W 05486 0326 178 025 059 107 025 05895 0000000000
1553 1701N 06953W 05487 0325 180 025 061 097 025 05895 0000000000
1553. 1700N 06956W 05486 0324 178 025 061 101 025 05894 0000000000
1554 1700N 06958W 05486 0324 178 025 061 101 025 05894 0000000000
1554. 1659N 07000W 05485 0323 175 025 061 103 026 05892 0000000000
1555 1659N 07002W 05490 0324 172 026 059 107 026 05898 0000000000
1555. 1658N 07005W 05485 0322 172 026 055 109 026 05891 0000000000
1556 1658N 07007W 05487 0321 171 026 055 107 026 05892 0000000000
1556. 1657N 07009W 05487 0322 172 027 061 103 027 05892 0000000000
1557 1657N 07011W 05487 0322 174 028 063 101 029 05892 0000000000
1557. 1656N 07014W 05487 0322 175 028 063 099 029 05892 0000000000
1558 1655N 07016W 05486 0322 176 029 061 101 029 05891 0000000000
1558. 1655N 07018W 05476 0324 176 030 061 097 030 05884 0000000000
1559 1654N 07020W 05489 0322 181 030 065 091 031 05895 0000000000
;

[mtm4319]