Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[storms in NC]

It is like they can smell land and say noway I will go there and move around it. Wasn't it Ivin that did that a few times?

[Opal storm]

From the recon points it just looks like Ernesto is stair stepping WNW to NNW. It seems like this is fairly typical with storms and supports not putting too much stock into one particular heading.

http://bobbutts.mine.nu/ernesto.jpg

I noticed that when I saw it on TWC.It's jumps north and then jumps west,and so on.Right now it looks like it's taking a wnw step.

[MiamiensisWx]

In terms of the rate and extent of reintensification in the south-central to southeast Gulf of Mexico after a Cuban landfall, it may largely depend on if the main developing fairly tight core remains intact after leaving Cuba. An intact core may, due to the position of the mid-level ridging over the southeastern U.S. and outflow-enhancing gap between the approaching mid-level trough, allow faster, quicker, and a more rapid burst of intensification sooner after leaving Cuba. If the core is disrupted more by the Cuban terrain, reintensification over the south-central/southeast Gulf of Mexico may be slower and more gradual due to the need to reestablish an internal, tighter core. This and the other synoptics may make a big difference as to how reintensification in the Gulf will respond and in what manner after Ernesto exits Cuba.

[Sanibel]

Exactly Tallywx: See Labor Day 1935 storm for a good example of a Florida Straits rapid developer because it had only a tight windfield to pull around.

[Javlin]

Thank YOU !!!ALHurricane,AFM and Ortt for your response.I come here to read you guys post in paticular.I myself still not sold totally on the solution by the NHC but they do have alot more access than I.The problem I have is the ULL to the W.While Ernie cannot go through it I have seen systems slingshot around them(Claudette or Chantal?).I was hoping today or tonight would give us a better representation and maybe it has .I have to believe the big swing(could be the Katrina swing).

[perk]

I agree with Portastorm on keeping the western GOM out of this. Yesterday i had doubts about sounding the all clear for Texas, but not today.

[Sanibel]

With the speed this is moving at it will have no problem reintensifying in the Florida Straits Gulf Stream. This one is conforming to all potential bad traits.

[brunota2003]

I know florida is going to be a much sooner impact but i cant help but think of charley in this situation andn the impacts he had on the east coast.Some of the models continue to show the remnants or he may still be a storm moving up or along the east coast the question is how might he hold together crossing florida and hopefully he impacts florida as a weak system and theres not much left if he gets back in the atlantic

yep...noticed that to...I will be watching it closely, but not ready to flip yet...the question is how badly will the inner core get disrupted when it crosses Florida? That will determine how much, if at all, it strengthens once it gets into the Atlantic, assuming it crosses Florida. It also depends on how strong it gets before it hits Florida and how quick it will move. Ought to be a rather interesting few days...

[jwayne]

I agree with Portastorm on keeping the western GOM out of this. Yesterday i had doubts about sounding the all clear for Texas, but not today.

people were signalling the all clear for the fl peninsula yesterday and look where we are today. The storm has slowed (significantly) over the past few hours. I wonder if this could have big implications on future track (ie not get caught by trough, allow ridge to build back in, and then big problem further west)?

[GraysonDave]

https://detweb.weather.navy.mil/gtmo/

Gitmo radar.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I agree with Portastorm on keeping the western GOM out of this. Yesterday i had doubts about sounding the all clear for Texas, but not today.

yeah, I think TX is safe (unless something drastic happens). However, I think places from NOLA east need to stay on guard, because at this point...anything can (and probably will) happen.

IMO, here are the current chances that the storm will visit (make a direct landfall on) each state...

TX: 2%
LA: 10%
MS: 15%
AL: 25%
FL: 48%

[tallywx]

Do we have any radars out of eastern Cuba?

Here's a link to the radar out of Gitmo, Cuba. It won't be a relevant image until tomorrow (storm still out of range).

http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/products/anim ... &gtype=JPG

[Extremeweatherguy]

I agree with Portastorm on keeping the western GOM out of this. Yesterday i had doubts about sounding the all clear for Texas, but not today.

people were signalling the all clear for the fl peninsula yesterday and look where we are today. The storm has slowed (significantly) over the past few hours. I wonder if this could have big implications on future track (ie not get caught by trough, allow ridge to build back in, and then big problem further west)?

yeah, I was wondering about that too. However, I am not going to worry about anything like that happening until it is 100% clear that it will. ATM, I still feel areas west of NOLA are safe.

[Typhoon]

Can any of the pros comment about the erosion of the ridge and the evolving synoptic pattern? I made the comment below a few pages ago and didn't receive any feedback.

I am not completely sold on a Florida Peninsula landfall. The Rockies shortwave that is supposed to erode the ridge over the southeastern U.S. has not really been that impressive. Also, looking at a water vapor loop, it may not dig as far southeast as the models advertise it will. In addition, Ernesto seems to be wobbling back towards the WNW. It may come closer to the north Jamaican coastline than the NHC track would suggest. A Florida Peninsula landfall may be most probable, but everyone east of New Orleans still has to watch Ernesto.

[Portastorm]

I agree with Portastorm on keeping the western GOM out of this. Yesterday i had doubts about sounding the all clear for Texas, but not today.

people were signalling the all clear for the fl peninsula yesterday and look where we are today. The storm has slowed (significantly) over the past few hours. I wonder if this could have big implications on future track (ie not get caught by trough, allow ridge to build back in, and then big problem further west)?

With all due respect ... um ... no!

There's a better chance that Paris Hilton joins S2K later this afternoon.

[tallywx]

I know florida is going to be a much sooner impact but i cant help but think of charley in this situation andn the impacts he had on the east coast.Some of the models continue to show the remnants or he may still be a storm moving up or along the east coast the question is how might he hold together crossing florida and hopefully he impacts florida as a weak system and theres not much left if he gets back in the atlantic

Here's hoping that if the storm does ride the southeast U.S. in some fashion, it'll throw some rain up into the Triangle. Some areas around Raleigh have hit the jackpot with popcorn showers over the past month, but I've only had about 0.12" over the last three weeks.

[6SpeedTA95]

This system is still not very organized, at the rate shear is decreasing I'd expect it to get its act together before making landfall in cuba. My big question now is just what track it will take over Cuba. That will be the biggest factor in its strength at landfall in the US.

[Scorpion]

By the way, I see a more westerly component in Ernesto's motion that I have not seen today.

[Sanibel]

I'm just catching a possible steady 290* trend now too.

Hmmm.

Does the ridge have it now?

This could mean more west.

This could be worse for Florida if it cuts across from south Cuba instead of riding across the spine.

[6SpeedTA95]

By the way, I see a more westerly component in Ernesto's motion that I have not seen today.

This thing is so disorganized its really hard to pin it down which is also why the models are bouncing all over the place.