Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[6SpeedTA95]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+1

here is the shortwave that many are crying wolf about. Its not digging its lifting out.

saw that also...very rare for a shortwave to dig into the central GOM this time of year....and before someone bashes me with a Charley in 04 reference, yes I know all about it.

Bet you within 24 hours we have another flip on track with this storm, putting many s2k members on the brink of needing serious medication.

Its quite possible, these things tend to change and this storm has been changing significantly all weekend.

[ROCK]

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+1

here is the shortwave that many are crying wolf about. Its not digging its lifting out.

saw that also...very rare for a shortwave to dig into the central GOM this time of year....and before someone bashes me with a Charley in 04 reference, yes I know all about it.

Bet you within 24 hours we have another flip on track with this storm, putting many s2k members on the brink of needing serious medication.

yeah, I was thinking flip up the east coat of FL attm.....I mean if E wants to eat some more ridge let him have it. Hisp will have him for lunch.....

[Brent]

How bad will this be in Cayman, my friends there say that they aren't getting much information from the government.

Probably not that bad. Maybe some squalls but no direct hit UNLESS it pulls something and goes south of the NHC track.

[LanceW]

12z GFS............

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/ ... _sfc.shtml

Right up the center of Florida? Am I seeing that correctly?

[SWFLA_CANE]

12z GFS............

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/ ... _sfc.shtml

Right up the center of Florida? Am I seeing that correctly?

Looks like it comes in in swfla and goes up the center

[rnbaida]

looks like a miami hit... it wont have time to strengthen at all!!!

[jabber]

Looks like it.

12z GFS............

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/ ... _sfc.shtml

Right up the center of Florida? Am I seeing that correctly?

[skysummit]

12z GFS............

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/ ... _sfc.shtml

Right up the center of Florida? Am I seeing that correctly?

Looks like it comes in in swfla and goes up the center

Looks like very near Miami to me.

[rnbaida]

Ok start posting elevation and sst maps for this area... We need to look at miami....

[wxman57]

Another McIDAS image showing the center a bit better:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto44.gif

[cheezyWXguy]

I take it the GFS never initailizes with a low lower than 1008mb? Either that or it initailized wrong again

[Dean4Storms]

Zoom in on this Sat. loop, you can clearly see the center and what looks to be an eye trying to clear out. It does look like Ernesto has turned back or wobbles back to the WNW the last few hours or so.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[LanceW]

Looks like it.

12z GFS............

http://wxweb.meteostar.com/models/misc/ ... _sfc.shtml

Right up the center of Florida? Am I seeing that correctly?

That may be the best scenerio, not much time to strengthen more, IMO.

[Javlin]

Here's a high-res McIDAS image with the center clearly located. It's east of the blob of convection south of the western tip of Haiti. That blob may be moving/building WNW but the center is not.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto43.gif

Looks to me Ernie is building a better outflow to the W contray to what many are saying that the system looks weak or ragged it looks good there.The ULL to W looks to be moving out quickly and enhancing the flow to the W of the storm.Questions:as the ULL moves out does that create a void for the storm to move into are high pressure.

I wanted to add was not it the ULL to the N and W that has kept E at it's present location and slow forward motion.

[bayoubebe]

With all the junk posted, I can't even find the important stuff, hehe.

Could someone please tell me where a picture of the LATEST model predictions are and where the latest UPDATED track /forecast is?

THANKYOU

[Dean4Storms]

Another McIDAS image showing the center a bit better:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto44.gif

wxman, that is an old pic, the center now is clearly visible south of that liitle thumb of Haiti's for lack of a better description. It is moving more wnw now.

See link, zoom in........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[6SpeedTA95]

With all the junk posted, I can't even find the important stuff, hehe.

Could someone please tell me where a picture of the LATEST model predictions are and where the latest UPDATED track /forecast is?

THANKYOU

There's a GFS run posted at the top of this page.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Forecast track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Models page:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

[wxman57]

Zoom in on this Sat. loop, you can clearly see the center and what looks to be an eye trying to clear out. It does look like Ernesto has turned back or wobbles back to the WNW the last few hours or so.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Actually, what you're looking at appears to be convection diminishing and the cirrus clouds no longer covering the LLC.

[wxman57]

Another McIDAS image showing the center a bit better:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto44.gif

wxman, that is an old pic, the center now is clearly visible south of that liitle thumb of Haiti's for lack of a better description. It is moving more wnw now.

See link, zoom in........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Check the time on the bottom, scan time started 1602Z. It's the most recent image available. The image on your loop is 15 minutes older, and much poorer resolution.