Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 271604
97779 16004 10169 70400 54900 18030 57588 /4590
RMK AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 04

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 271609
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 10 KNHC
1559. 1654N 07022W 05485 0322 183 030 063 089 031 05891 0000000000
1600 1653N 07024W 05488 0321 181 031 065 087 031 05892 0000000000
1600. 1653N 07026W 05486 0320 177 030 069 083 030 05890 0000000000
1601 1652N 07028W 05486 0319 179 029 065 087 030 05889 0000000000
1601. 1652N 07030W 05486 0319 179 029 057 107 030 05888 0000000000
1602 1651N 07032W 05487 0319 176 030 055 119 031 05890 0000000000
1602. 1651N 07034W 05489 0318 170 030 055 123 031 05890 0000000000
1603 1650N 07035W 05484 0319 171 032 057 099 034 05886 0000000000
1603. 1649N 07037W 05486 0317 185 027 053 083 029 05887 0000000000
1604 1649N 07039W 05487 0317 183 025 059 081 026 05888 0000000000
1604. 1648N 07041W 05487 0317 183 021 057 075 024 05888 0000000000
1605 1647N 07043W 05485 0316 191 016 061 071 017 05885 0000000000
1605. 1646N 07045W 05487 0316 186 020 055 077 021 05886 0000000000
1606 1645N 07047W 05487 0315 181 020 061 073 020 05886 0000000000
1606. 1645N 07048W 05486 0316 185 021 055 097 022 05885 0000000000
1607 1644N 07050W 05487 0316 182 022 059 111 023 05887 0000000000
1607. 1643N 07052W 05486 0316 180 024 063 073 024 05886 0000000000
1608 1642N 07054W 05486 0315 180 025 065 085 026 05885 0000000000
1608. 1641N 07056W 05486 0315 188 025 065 099 026 05884 0000000000
1609 1641N 07058W 05488 0316 191 023 065 099 023 05888 0000000000
;

[mtm4319]

[mtm4319]

606
SXXX50 KNHC 271619
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 11 KNHC
1609. 1640N 07100W 05487 0317 190 022 063 103 023 05887 0000000000
1610 1640N 07102W 05486 0316 189 020 065 095 021 05886 0000000000
1610. 1640N 07104W 05486 0316 190 020 063 103 020 05886 0000000000
1611 1639N 07106W 05487 0317 189 019 059 111 019 05887 0000000000
1611. 1639N 07108W 05487 0318 187 020 055 103 020 05889 0000000000
1612 1639N 07110W 05487 0318 187 021 057 105 021 05888 0000000000
1612. 1638N 07112W 05486 0318 186 019 061 093 020 05888 0000000000
1613 1638N 07114W 05487 0319 186 019 063 071 020 05889 0000000000
1613. 1638N 07116W 05486 0318 179 024 059 065 029 05888 0000000000
1614 1638N 07118W 05485 0318 191 027 059 059 031 05887 0000000000
1614. 1637N 07120W 05486 0317 201 035 063 069 036 05887 0000000000
1615 1637N 07122W 05487 0316 203 035 065 073 036 05887 0000000000
1615. 1637N 07124W 05491 0314 200 034 061 075 036 05888 0000000000
1616 1636N 07126W 05482 0313 204 030 065 069 031 05879 0000000000
1616. 1636N 07128W 05487 0313 196 033 063 083 034 05884 0000000000
1617 1636N 07129W 05484 0311 192 039 063 081 044 05880 0000000000
1617. 1636N 07131W 05488 0313 193 041 063 077 043 05885 0000000000
1618 1635N 07133W 05487 0314 185 041 067 081 042 05885 0000000000
1618. 1635N 07135W 05486 0315 188 040 067 081 041 05885 0000000000
1619 1635N 07137W 05486 0316 182 041 065 085 042 05886 0000000000
;

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 271621
97779 16184 10166 71618 54900 19041 57588 /4590
RMK AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 05

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 271629
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 12 KNHC
1619. 1634N 07139W 05488 0317 176 037 067 079 039 05889 0000000000
1620 1634N 07141W 05485 0315 172 035 069 075 035 05883 0000000000
1620. 1635N 07143W 05488 0317 170 037 067 067 037 05889 0000000000
1621 1637N 07144W 05487 0318 178 036 061 061 039 05889 0000000000
1621. 1639N 07143W 05488 0317 198 027 055 055 028 05889 0000000000
1622 1639N 07141W 05483 0312 203 029 055 055 032 05879 0000000000
1622. 1638N 07139W 05486 0313 197 036 055 055 039 05883 0000000000
1623 1638N 07137W 05486 0316 190 045 059 059 049 05886 0000000000
1623. 1637N 07136W 05490 0324 191 046 057 057 049 05898 0000000000
1624 1635N 07136W 05493 0322 191 033 071 071 037 05899 0000000000
1624. 1635N 07138W 05478 0315 175 037 051 051 040 05877 0000000000
1625 1635N 07140W 05488 0314 164 038 067 075 039 05886 0000000000
1625. 1635N 07142W 05486 0313 166 036 071 071 037 05883 0000000000
1626 1634N 07144W 05486 0313 159 033 065 065 034 05883 0000000000
1626. 1635N 07147W 05483 0312 179 027 055 055 029 05879 0000000000
1627 1635N 07149W 05488 0310 195 023 053 053 025 05882 0000000000
1627. 1636N 07151W 05489 0314 198 022 051 051 022 05887 0000000000
1628 1637N 07152W 05487 0314 191 025 051 051 025 05884 0000000000
1628. 1639N 07151W 05487 0315 192 026 053 053 028 05886 0000000000
1629 1639N 07149W 05482 0316 193 027 055 055 028 05881 0000000000
;

[mtm4319]

[cycloneye]

Looks like they will make the first pass from SE to NW.

[rnbaida]

I think they will find some lower pressure as well as slightly higher winds... 80mph

[JtSmarts]

I say they will find 995 pressure winds about the same. I really don't think Ernesto will ramp up until it can get away from Haiti.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 271639
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 13 KNHC
1629. 1637N 07148W 05401 0312 190 025 049 049 026 05796 0000000000
1630 1636N 07149W 05290 0299 196 021 043 043 023 05672 0000000000
1630. 1636N 07151W 05082 0283 194 023 033 033 024 05448 0000000000
1631 1636N 07154W 04849 0264 181 026 023 023 029 05194 0000000000
1631. 1636N 07156W 04623 0254 170 032 015 015 033 04958 0000000000
1632 1636N 07158W 04400 0226 165 034 007 007 037 04706 0000000000
1632. 1636N 07200W 04177 0224 154 037 005 005 038 04462 0000000000
1633 1636N 07202W 04033 0225 153 036 009 009 037 04308 0000000000
1633. 1636N 07204W 03915 0217 154 033 003 003 034 04182 0000000000
1634 1636N 07206W 03801 0211 155 034 014 014 034 04061 0000000000
1634. 1636N 07208W 03690 0203 159 035 022 022 036 03941 0000000000
1635 1636N 07210W 03581 0195 160 035 024 024 036 03825 0000000000
1635. 1636N 07212W 03476 0187 160 038 028 028 039 03711 0000000000
1636 1636N 07214W 03359 0179 159 040 036 036 040 03586 0000000000
1636. 1636N 07216W 03274 0174 159 040 042 042 041 03496 0000000100
1637 1636N 07218W 03157 0166 160 043 044 044 044 03370 0000000100
1637. 1637N 07220W 03067 0158 161 041 038 038 043 03272 0000000100
1638 1637N 07221W 03047 0158 175 040 048 048 042 03252 0000000100
1638. 1637N 07223W 03051 0156 170 034 050 050 035 03254 0000000000
1639 1637N 07225W 03046 0156 174 030 044 044 030 03249 0000000000
;

Descending to 700mb

[mtm4319]

And for the multipliers:

Flight level--------------Eyewall-----------Outer vortex (convection)-----Outer vortex (not in convection)
700hPa (3,000m)--------0.90------------------0.85------------------------------------0.80
850hPa (1,500m)--------0.80------------------0.80------------------------------------0.75
925hPa (750m)-----------0.75------------------0.75------------------------------------0.75
300m-------------------------0.80------------------0.80------------------------------------0.80

[cycloneye]

Plane has decended to 700mb.Meaning a reduction of 75%.

[StormsAhead]

SXXX50 KNHC 271649
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 14 KNHC
1639. 1637N 07227W 03048 0155 174 031 044 044 033 03250 0000000000
1640 1637N 07229W 03049 0158 192 035 050 050 042 03254 0000000000
1640. 1637N 07231W 03048 0159 208 030 058 058 031 03253 0000000000
1641 1637N 07232W 03050 0160 210 028 074 074 028 03256 0000000000
1641. 1637N 07234W 03048 0159 211 027 082 082 027 03254 0000000000
1642 1637N 07236W 03048 0159 210 028 082 082 030 03255 0000000000
1642. 1638N 07237W 03047 0158 212 030 084 084 031 03252 0000000000
1643 1638N 07239W 03048 0159 209 025 086 080 026 03254 0000000000
1643. 1638N 07241W 03049 0159 210 025 086 076 025 03255 0000000000
1644 1639N 07243W 03047 0160 213 024 088 074 025 03254 0000000000
1644. 1639N 07244W 03049 0159 209 026 090 076 026 03255 0000000000
1645 1639N 07246W 03048 0160 207 025 090 070 025 03255 0000000000
1645. 1640N 07248W 03048 0159 207 025 094 060 025 03254 0000000000
1646 1640N 07250W 03047 0158 206 023 096 056 024 03252 0000000000
1646. 1642N 07251W 03050 0157 202 024 092 052 024 03253 0000000000
1647 1643N 07252W 03048 0156 205 025 094 056 026 03250 0000000000
1647. 1644N 07254W 03047 0154 204 026 094 064 027 03248 0000000000
1648 1646N 07255W 03048 0154 204 026 092 066 026 03249 0000000000
1648. 1647N 07256W 03049 0153 203 026 090 076 027 03250 0000000000
1649 1648N 07258W 03047 0154 203 026 094 054 026 03247 0000000000
;

[mtm4319]

[StormsAhead]

Plane has decended to 700mb.Meaning a reduction of 75%.

Actually, the reduction is 90% in the eyewall, 85% in outer convection, and 80% outside convection for 700mb.

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 271652
97779 16464 10167 72908 30400 20025 09058 /3167
42030
RMK AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 06

30kt estimated surface wind

[cycloneye]

Plane has decended to 700mb.Meaning a reduction of 75%.

Actually, the reduction is 90% in the eyewall, 85% in outer convection, and 80% outside convection for 700mb.

Ok,thanks for the clarification.

[mtm4319]

And there is no real eyewall here since we don't have an eye, so we should probably use the 85% reduction for the highest FL numbers.

[brunota2003]

so let me get this straight...these right here:
1559 1654N 07020W 05489 0322 181 030 065 091 031 05895 0000000000
mean whether data is accurate or is suspected not to be accurate right? so a "0" means accurate and a "1" means suspected and each "0" or "1" lines up with something correct? cool...