Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[bayoubebe]

Forecast track:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/

Models page:

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/guidance/

Thank you very much.

I'll keep those addys now.

[6SpeedTA95]

Another McIDAS image showing the center a bit better:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto44.gif

wxman, that is an old pic, the center now is clearly visible south of that liitle thumb of Haiti's for lack of a better description. It is moving more wnw now.

See link, zoom in........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Wow, those last two frames are looking decidedly better.

[Opal storm]

I'm not buying the GFS and the Miami landfall.If it was moving NNW then yes,but it doesn't look like it's going far enough north to hit SE FL.

[HouTXmetro]

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Good site to monitor the progress of the shortwave. Looks like it is holding steady but not making any progress.

[Dean4Storms]

Zoom in on this Sat. loop, you can clearly see the center and what looks to be an eye trying to clear out. It does look like Ernesto has turned back or wobbles back to the WNW the last few hours or so.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Actually, what you're looking at appears to be convection diminishing and the cirrus clouds no longer covering the LLC.

We'll have to disagree on that one. If you'll zoom in and slow it down I think you'll see the movement more wnw with the center just south of that thumb as I pointed out.

[MiamiensisWx]

I need help. What exactly is eroding the ridge? I've been studying WV for an hour now and I can't understand. Is it the shortwave trough or the ULL?

Here is a good graphic that indicates what the GFS may have been indicating... it also indicates my thoughts on the synoptics.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

The shortwave is in the Rockies. Look at its movement.

[drezee]

Another McIDAS image showing the center a bit better:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto44.gif

The low level curvature axis looks to be passing 74W right now. I see what you are talking about. I have access to the same images, but to me it seems like the LLC should be on in line with 74W.

Look at the curvature of the low clouds on the S side.

[Stratosphere747]

Seen the Jamaica two-step a few times..Wonder if Ernie is about to do the Haiti two-step...

Not near as impressive from very early this morning either.

[Dean4Storms]

Another McIDAS image showing the center a bit better:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto44.gif

wxman, that is an old pic, the center now is clearly visible south of that liitle thumb of Haiti's for lack of a better description. It is moving more wnw now.

See link, zoom in........

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Check the time on the bottom, scan time started 1602Z. It's the most recent image available. The image on your loop is 15 minutes older, and much poorer resolution.

Yes, I've seen what you are looking at and I believe that is the reaction to the mountains of haiti causing an inflow swirl making it look as if the center is well ENE.

[chris_fit]

We'll find out shortly with recon going in there now on where the exact center is

[wxman57]

Zoom in on this Sat. loop, you can clearly see the center and what looks to be an eye trying to clear out. It does look like Ernesto has turned back or wobbles back to the WNW the last few hours or so.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Actually, what you're looking at appears to be convection diminishing and the cirrus clouds no longer covering the LLC.

We'll have to disagree on that one. If you'll zoom in and slow it down I think you'll see the movement more wnw with the center just south of that thumb as I pointed out.

I'm building a 10-image McICAS loop now. Can't post it here, but It'll be up on my worksttaion shortly. Much higher resolution than you can get online anywhere, and it has 1-deg lat-lon lines on it. Should be done in a minute or two. It COULD be that the center is actually farther NW over the western tip of Haiti.

[mtm4319]

I need help. What exactly is eroding the ridge? I've been studying WV for an hour now and I can't understand. Is it the shortwave trough or the ULL?

Here is a good graphic that indicates what the GFS may have been indicating... it also indicates my thoughts on the synoptics.

Can't read it... :-\

[Dean4Storms]

Zoom in on this Sat. loop, you can clearly see the center and what looks to be an eye trying to clear out. It does look like Ernesto has turned back or wobbles back to the WNW the last few hours or so.


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

Actually, what you're looking at appears to be convection diminishing and the cirrus clouds no longer covering the LLC.

We'll have to disagree on that one. If you'll zoom in and slow it down I think you'll see the movement more wnw with the center just south of that thumb as I pointed out.

I'm building a 10-image McICAS loop now. Can't post it here, but It'll be up on my worksttaion shortly. Much higher resolution than you can get online anywhere, and it has 1-deg lat-lon lines on it. Should be done in a minute or two. It COULD be that the center is actually farther NW over the western tip of Haiti.

I wish I could get some higher res., but the ghcc site seems to be down.

[storms in NC]

From what I can see still NW on the vloop

[Stratosphere747]

It looks almost as if the center reflected off the extreme edge of the Haitian coast, giving the impression of a more westerly movement.

[Dean4Storms]

Anybody able to get the 12z CMC run yet, the site I use isn't running it.

[Dean4Storms]

We'll know more about where the center is when the Recon. gets there here in a short while.

[wxman57]

Ok, I think I got a better fix on the center after running a McIDAS loop. It's over western Haiti near 18.1 or 18.2N and 74W. That's right on the NHC track or maybe 0.1 degree to the north of the track:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto45.gif

[Thatsmrhurricane]

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMCT ... cloop.html

Still into Tampa. Look what’s coming off the African coast.