Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

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deltadog03
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#421 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:37 am

wxman...I respectfully dissagree with you. You can see the low level turning in the S or SW part of the blob. Look at the shortwave IR channel 2 loop....can see low level clouds rotating down there.
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#422 Postby mtm4319 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:37 am

wxman57 wrote:Ok, I think I got a better fix on the center after running a McIDAS loop. It's over western Haiti near 18.1 or 18.2N and 74W. That's right on the NHC track or maybe 0.1 degree to the north of the track:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto45.gif


You think it's already made landfall on Haiti's coast?

Hmm... I guess recon will find out soon.
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#423 Postby Dean4Storms » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:37 am

wxman57 wrote:Ok, I think I got a better fix on the center after running a McIDAS loop. It's over western Haiti near 18.1 or 18.2N and 74W. That's right on the NHC track or maybe 0.1 degree to the north of the track:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto45.gif


That would make sense with the loss of convection we are now see as well. Good Job.
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#424 Postby LAwxrgal » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:38 am

wxman57 wrote:Ok, I think I got a better fix on the center after running a McIDAS loop. It's over western Haiti near 18.1 or 18.2N and 74W. That's right on the NHC track or maybe 0.1 degree to the north of the track:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto45.gif


Thanks wxman. So you're saying this is making landfall right now on the western tip of Haiti? Unreal the changes that have taken place overnight.
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#425 Postby drezee » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:38 am

drezee wrote:
wxman57 wrote:Another McIDAS image showing the center a bit better:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto44.gif


The low level curvature axis looks to be passing 74W right now. I see what you are talking about. I have access to the same images, but to me it seems like the LLC should be on in line with 74W.

Look at the curvature of the low clouds on the S side.


wxman57 wrote:Ok, I think I got a better fix on the center after running a McIDAS loop. It's over western Haiti near 18.1 or 18.2N and 74W. That's right on the NHC track or maybe 0.1 degree to the north of the track:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto45.gif


I see that we agree on 74W now.
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#426 Postby sponger » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:41 am

What a amazing shift in track from yesterday. Does any one know when the gulfstream jet will be feeding updated info into the models?
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#427 Postby MiamiensisWx » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:42 am

mtm4319 wrote:Can't read it... :-\


Sorry... this should be better for you and Scott (skysummit)...

Image

Do you and Scott (skysummit) and others see it better now?
Last edited by MiamiensisWx on Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#428 Postby brunota2003 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:42 am

sponger wrote:What a amazing shift in track from yesterday. Does any one know when the gulfstream jet will be feeding updated info into the models?
I believe they fly tonight...so by tomorrow morning the tracks should have the info...
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#429 Postby wxman57 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:43 am

deltadog03 wrote:wxman...I respectfully dissagree with you. You can see the low level turning in the S or SW part of the blob. Look at the shortwave IR channel 2 loop....can see low level clouds rotating down there.


How are you seeing the low-level clouds on IR imagery? I have 1 kilometer visible loops running and don't see any low level turning southwest of the convective complex.
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#430 Postby tailgater » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:45 am

HouTXmetro wrote:http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

Good site to monitor the progress of the shortwave. Looks like it is holding steady but not making any progress.

thanks
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#431 Postby Hurricaneman » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:45 am

wxman57 wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:wxman...I respectfully dissagree with you. You can see the low level turning in the S or SW part of the blob. Look at the shortwave IR channel 2 loop....can see low level clouds rotating down there.


How are you seeing the low-level clouds on IR imagery? I have 1 kilometer visible loops running and don't see any low level turning southwest of the convective complex.


sorry deltadog03, but it also looks to me it has made landfall on the western edge of Haiti
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#432 Postby Scorpion » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:45 am

Anyone see the 00z WRF? It takes Ernesto towards AL or the Panhandle and shows a 955 mb hurricane so far.
Last edited by Scorpion on Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:46 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#433 Postby sponger » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:45 am

brunota2003 wrote:
sponger wrote:What a amazing shift in track from yesterday. Does any one know when the gulfstream jet will be feeding updated info into the models?
I believe they fly tonight...so by tomorrow morning the tracks should have the info...


Thanks. Thats going to be well within the 3 day forcast for South and sw Florida. I think the nhc has our attention!
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#434 Postby deltadog03 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:46 am

you can see low level clouds on an IR image....
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#435 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:46 am

the ridge is weaker than the models had originally predicted.......
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#436 Postby Bgator » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:49 am

On what i see as the current motion, it would skim the SW hait and only lightly tough the east coast of cuba, that small area on the east, leaving it open near the bahamas....And for the way it looks now, every morning we have this conversation how bad it looks, than it blows up at night!
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#437 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:49 am

The reason why I originally called a FL peninsula hit was because:

1) storm was jogging north
2) The ridge was weaker than I thought the models were making it.

It's still far out and it could miss but I hope Tampa Bay is spared....
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#438 Postby Kennethb » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:49 am

While here in LA, we are somewhat relieved with the recent motion and forecast with Earn, I think it is a little early to write him off here. We first must see how he traverses Cuba, Haiti, etc. Once off of land, then he will have a better idea of where he wants to go.

It is a tad early to expect a significant trough to drop down, though it can happen. Looking at the WV loop, the ridge looks good. Hopefully the models are reading the western NA upper weather features well and can see the trough digging down. Ridges can be stubborn. Remember Elena in 1985, a classic looping, backing storm.
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#439 Postby margaritabeach » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:50 am

deltadog03 wrote:you can see low level clouds on an IR image....


hmmmmm pretty sure u cannot. u need visable
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#440 Postby wxman57 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 11:50 am

I think I see what model data the NHC are using. Their track is very close to the CONU and CGUN (two consensus models). Looks good to me:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto46.gif
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