Hurricane Ernesto: Sat Pics, Models, Analysis Thread #1

[MiamiensisWx]

Ok I see it now. Thanks CVW!

Good, Scott. Do you see better now the potential effects of the trough and why the GFS may indicate what it does?

[gatorcane]

if those tracks verify than Key West and Tampa are in BIG trouble.

[Brent]

if those tracks verify than Key West and Tampa are in BIG trouble.

and the entire West Coast below Tampa if it's that close.

[deltadog03]

ok, i might be wrong....Looking at this better....I still there is something there on the southern part of the convection...but** it may be near land right now...my appologies.

[BonesXL]

If ernie gets to close to Cuba ...are we allowed to fly recon missions that close to cuba...I think its 50 miles from their coast or something...does anyone know.

[skysummit]

Ok I see it now. Thanks CVW!

Good, Scott. Do you see better now the potential effects of the trough and why the GFS may indicate what it does?

I sure do. I wasn't looking far enough into the future. I try not to depend on models, but see what's actually going. I do now see the effects.

[cjrciadt]

if those tracks verify than Key West and Tampa are in BIG trouble.

and the entire West Coast below Tampa if it's that close.

Exactly, I cant believe another Charley like track heading toward's FL. Yesterday I left thinking FL might be in the clear. Wobble watching greatly starting Tuesday.

[MiamiensisWx]

I try not to depend on models, but see what's actually going.

Same here. That's partially why I posted the more detailed graphic.

[Brent]

If ernie gets to close to Cuba ...are we allowed to fly recon missions that close to cuba...I think its 50 miles from their coast or something...does anyone know.

If it's OVER Cuba I don't think they can, but I do think they can fly if the center stays offshore(they have before).

[gatorcane]

well most people thought I was nuts yesterday but hopefully you all don't think I am completely on crack....

I wouldn't say the FL peninsula was a potential target if I didn't really think so..

[bayoubebe]

if those tracks verify than Key West and Tampa are in BIG trouble.

and the entire West Coast below Tampa if it's that close.

Exactly, I cant believe another Charley like track heading toward's FL. Yesterday I left thinking FL might be in the clear. Wobble watching greatly starting Tuesday.

Is this set in stone now?

It has changed so much after the last 48 hours, but is this the OFFICIAL, definite track now?

Are Texas, Louisiana, MS out of the woods?

[whereverwx]

What's the link to the Cuba radar?

[curtadams]

wxman...I respectfully dissagree with you. You can see the low level turning in the S or SW part of the blob. Look at the shortwave IR channel 2 loop....can see low level clouds rotating down there.

How are you seeing the low-level clouds on IR imagery? I have 1 kilometer visible loops running and don't see any low level turning southwest of the convective complex.

Bumps on the fringes of the CDO are rotating CCW and some satellite storms too. Of course those are (very) high clouds and their motion reflects the MLC not the LLC. But, with westerly upper shear and SWly mid shear you can't get an MLC well south of the Haiti coast from and LLC on the coast. So I think the LLC is still respectably out to sea.

[storms in NC]

is just off shore of Haiti
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

[chris_fit]

is just off shore of Haiti
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg

I Believe it has already made landfall in Haiti

[rnbaida]

can someone please post a physical map of haiti?

[rnbaida]

Are there any current conditions for haiti?

[Aquawind]

can someone please post a physical map of haiti?

All we need I think..

http://www.lib.utexas.edu/maps/americas/cuba_rel94.jpg

[StrongWind]

What's the link to the Cube radar?

I had http://www.met.inf.cu but it doesn't seem to be working now.

[rnbaida]

has the 12z GFDL come out yet?