Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[WindRunner]

so let me get this straight...these right here:
1559 1654N 07020W 05489 0322 181 030 065 091 031 05895 0000000000
mean whther data is accurate or is suspected not to be accurate right? so a "0" means accurate and a "1" means suspected and each "0" or "1" lines up with something correct? cool...

Yeah, each one lines up with each column of data in that row.

[mtm4319]

367
SXXX50 KNHC 271659
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 15 KNHC
1649. 1650N 07259W 03054 0154 196 028 078 078 030 03255 0000000000
1650 1651N 07300W 03040 0154 192 025 086 066 026 03241 0000000000
1650. 1652N 07302W 03050 0153 203 024 096 048 024 03250 0000000000
1651 1654N 07303W 03049 0151 196 025 098 044 026 03247 0000000000
1651. 1655N 07305W 03048 0152 193 023 088 066 024 03246 0000000000
1652 1656N 07306W 03047 0150 197 024 096 054 024 03244 0000000000
1652. 1658N 07307W 03049 0150 195 023 090 066 024 03246 0000000000
1653 1659N 07309W 03048 0150 197 023 090 064 024 03245 0000000000
1653. 1700N 07310W 03048 0150 202 023 092 064 023 03245 0000000000
1654 1702N 07311W 03048 0150 206 023 100 054 024 03245 0000000000
1654. 1703N 07313W 03048 0151 211 024 106 052 025 03245 0000000000
1655 1704N 07314W 03047 0150 220 024 110 048 024 03244 0000000000
1655. 1705N 07316W 03048 0151 228 022 108 052 024 03245 0000000000
1656 1706N 07317W 03049 0150 231 018 106 056 020 03246 0000000000
1656. 1707N 07319W 03049 0149 232 017 110 054 018 03245 0000000000
1657 1707N 07321W 03046 0147 233 017 110 050 018 03240 0000000000
1657. 1708N 07322W 03048 0146 230 018 110 048 019 03240 0000000000
1658 1708N 07324W 03048 0142 226 022 108 052 024 03237 0000000000
1658. 1709N 07325W 03055 0140 213 022 116 042 023 03241 0000000000
1659 1710N 07327W 03043 0140 196 026 104 056 028 03230 0000000000
;




All the red is gone from the center....

[brunota2003]

so let me get this straight...these right here:
1559 1654N 07020W 05489 0322 181 030 065 091 031 05895 0000000000
mean whther data is accurate or is suspected not to be accurate right? so a "0" means accurate and a "1" means suspected and each "0" or "1" lines up with something correct? cool...

Yeah, each one lines up with each column of data in that row.

alright...thank you, thats what I thought it was...

[WindRunner]

from reports thread:

All the red is gone from the center.

Yeah, I'll agree that it's getting weaker, but I know a quickscat pass this morning showed the strongest wind barb due north of the center, in an area that is probably inland over Haiti right now, so I wouldn't be suprised if they can't support a hurricane in this flight. The pressure will probably be the ultimate determining factor, though. A continued upward trend will most likely (or rather, should) lead to a downgrade.

[StormsAhead]

And there is no real eyewall here since we don't have an eye, so we should probably use the 85% reduction for the highest FL numbers.

There was an eye reported in the last vortex this morning, although it was open to the south. Also, if Ernesto was a hurricane at 11 AM with 700mb wind less than 70kt, then the proper reduction must have been 90%.

[JtSmarts]

After seeing the latest ir pics in the recon thread, it looks like Ernesto could be on his way back down to ts strength. All the red has left the center area.

[WindRunner]

VDM shortly now . . .

[WindRunner]

SXXX50 KNHC 271709
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 16 KNHC
1659. 1711N 07329W 03048 0139 192 028 098 064 029 03234 0000000000
1700 1712N 07330W 03048 0138 195 029 102 060 029 03233 0000000000
1700. 1714N 07332W 03049 0141 189 028 096 070 029 03237 0000000000
1701 1716N 07332W 03048 0141 187 027 094 072 028 03235 0000000000
1701. 1717N 07333W 03046 0141 193 026 096 070 027 03233 0000000000
1702 1719N 07334W 03050 0140 197 022 100 066 024 03237 0000000000
1702. 1721N 07335W 03046 0140 203 021 100 066 021 03233 0000000000
1703 1723N 07336W 03050 0140 213 021 100 064 022 03236 0000000000
1703. 1724N 07337W 03048 0139 209 022 100 064 023 03234 0000000000
1704 1726N 07337W 03048 0138 216 022 102 060 023 03233 0000000000
1704. 1728N 07338W 03046 0140 224 022 108 052 023 03233 0000000000
1705 1729N 07339W 03048 0139 229 021 110 058 022 03234 0000000000
1705. 1731N 07340W 03049 0138 230 019 108 062 019 03234 0000000000
1706 1733N 07341W 03047 0137 227 016 106 070 017 03231 0000000000
1706. 1734N 07341W 03048 0136 224 014 100 076 016 03230 0000000000
1707 1736N 07342W 03049 0137 199 008 098 076 013 03233 0000000000
1707. 1737N 07343W 03048 0136 353 002 108 066 005 03231 0000000000
1708 1739N 07345W 03049 0133 038 004 108 066 006 03228 0000000000
1708. 1740N 07346W 03050 0132 076 008 106 074 011 03228 0000000000
1709 1741N 07347W 03047 0133 027 007 126 054 008 03227 0000000000

Into the center . . . VDM shortly.

[mtm4319]

[StormScanWx]

mtm,

Would you please give me the image link for the satellite you are using on Google Earth?

Thank you!

SSW

[Stratosphere747]

Good point about the pressure Windrunner.

Have to agree with a few others that recon will not find winds or pressure supporting hurricane status. Which for now is a positive.

[cycloneye]

Continue here.

Thread #1

We will deleite one word posts,emoctions only posts and the quoting others posts.

[mtm4319]

mtm,

Would you please give me the image link for the satellite you are using on Google Earth?

Thank you!

SSW

Not too sure what you mean. I'm using this as my overlay image, but the other points I'm inputting manually.

[LanceW]

It would make sense that the ceter is very close to the 11AM position, as it's only been 2 hours, roughly 18 miles.

[drezee]

1707. 1737N 07343W 03048 0136 353 002 108 066 005 03231 0000000000

that seems likw the center fix. So

17.6N 73.7W os so

[ronjon]

Using the IR SAT, it looks to me to be moving almost due west over the last several hours just south of the SW peninsula of Haiti. I'd normally use the VIS SAT but the center is obscured by high cirrus.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Droop12]

Looks like the shear is all but gone now. I'd look for a blowup of convection this afternoon or tonight, and then it should be on from there. I dunno what will happen when he crosses Cuba, but I think Cubas effect on storms is overrated. JMO

[SWFLA_CANE]

Monroe county already is giving evacuation orders.

[MiamiensisWx]

Looks like land interaction with the core may be resulting in the waning of the deepest message. The vortex data should confirm. Some mid-level dry air intrusion and mild shear may also be contributing. Vortex data should be interesting for sure.

[southerngale]

Before I start wading through countless posts, one question if someone doesn't mind answering...

How is Ernesto plowing through that ridge? I thought he was supposed to go west or wnw for a while before gradually turning more northward.