Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1
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- WindRunner
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SXXX50 KNHC 271719
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 17 KNHC
1709. 1742N 07349W 03049 0135 036 006 130 046 008 03230 0000000000
1710 1744N 07350W 03046 0135 028 009 130 042 012 03227 0000000000
1710. 1745N 07352W 03049 0134 012 010 140 030 011 03230 0000000000
1711 1746N 07353W 03048 0134 018 008 140 030 010 03229 0000000000
1711. 1747N 07355W 03047 0132 028 011 136 036 013 03225 0000000000
1712 1748N 07356W 03049 0134 051 016 128 042 020 03230 0000000000
1712. 1749N 07358W 03051 0137 057 021 120 056 024 03234 0000000000
1713 1750N 07359W 03045 0144 064 020 116 060 024 03236 0000000000
1713. 1748N 07401W 03050 0145 044 014 132 044 015 03242 0000000000
1714 1747N 07400W 03047 0136 023 009 132 038 011 03230 0000000000
1714. 1745N 07400W 03045 0137 327 004 132 036 007 03229 0000000000
1715 1743N 07359W 03050 0138 245 005 132 032 006 03234 0000000000
1715. 1741N 07359W 03050 0139 222 003 128 038 003 03236 0000000000
1716 1740N 07358W 03046 0139 227 005 124 044 010 03231 0000000000
1716. 1738N 07358W 03048 0138 241 007 120 048 010 03233 0000000000
1717 1736N 07358W 03049 0138 228 006 114 052 008 03233 0000000000
1717. 1734N 07358W 03050 0137 224 011 110 052 013 03234 0000000000
1718 1733N 07358W 03047 0136 263 007 112 050 010 03230 0000000000
1718. 1731N 07358W 03044 0136 266 011 112 048 011 03226 0000000000
1719 1729N 07358W 03054 0137 264 010 110 048 011 03238 0000000000
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 17 KNHC
1709. 1742N 07349W 03049 0135 036 006 130 046 008 03230 0000000000
1710 1744N 07350W 03046 0135 028 009 130 042 012 03227 0000000000
1710. 1745N 07352W 03049 0134 012 010 140 030 011 03230 0000000000
1711 1746N 07353W 03048 0134 018 008 140 030 010 03229 0000000000
1711. 1747N 07355W 03047 0132 028 011 136 036 013 03225 0000000000
1712 1748N 07356W 03049 0134 051 016 128 042 020 03230 0000000000
1712. 1749N 07358W 03051 0137 057 021 120 056 024 03234 0000000000
1713 1750N 07359W 03045 0144 064 020 116 060 024 03236 0000000000
1713. 1748N 07401W 03050 0145 044 014 132 044 015 03242 0000000000
1714 1747N 07400W 03047 0136 023 009 132 038 011 03230 0000000000
1714. 1745N 07400W 03045 0137 327 004 132 036 007 03229 0000000000
1715 1743N 07359W 03050 0138 245 005 132 032 006 03234 0000000000
1715. 1741N 07359W 03050 0139 222 003 128 038 003 03236 0000000000
1716 1740N 07358W 03046 0139 227 005 124 044 010 03231 0000000000
1716. 1738N 07358W 03048 0138 241 007 120 048 010 03233 0000000000
1717 1736N 07358W 03049 0138 228 006 114 052 008 03233 0000000000
1717. 1734N 07358W 03050 0137 224 011 110 052 013 03234 0000000000
1718 1733N 07358W 03047 0136 263 007 112 050 010 03230 0000000000
1718. 1731N 07358W 03044 0136 266 011 112 048 011 03226 0000000000
1719 1729N 07358W 03054 0137 264 010 110 048 011 03238 0000000000
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Josh linker just explained it on tv. The low east of florida is going to weaken the ridge as it crosses Florida. That is where Ernesto will begin to Turn north..when he finds that weakness.southerngale wrote:Before I start wading through countless posts, one question if someone doesn't mind answering...
How is Ernesto plowing through that ridge? I thought he was supposed to go west or wnw for a while before gradually turning more northward.
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He's looking weaker on satellite, the mountains of Haiti may be affecting it.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg
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#neversummer
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southerngale wrote:Before I start wading through countless posts, one question if someone doesn't mind answering...
How is Ernesto plowing through that ridge? I thought he was supposed to go west or wnw for a while before gradually turning more northward.
The ridge was weaker than earlier thought, happens alot especially in the tropics where obs are scarce and somewhat unreliable.
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drezee wrote:1707. 1737N 07343W 03048 0136 353 002 108 066 005 03231 0000000000
that seems likw the center fix. So
17.6N 73.7W os so
Should have waited for the next fix.
1712 1748N 07356W 03049 0134 051 016 128 042 020 03230 0000000000
1712. 1749N 07358W 03051 0137 057 021 120 056 024 03234 0000000000
1713 1750N 07359W 03045 0144 064 020 116 060 024 03236 0000000000
1713. 1748N 07401W 03050 0145 044 014 132 044 015 03242 0000000000
1714 1747N 07400W 03047 0136 023 009 132 038 011 03230 0000000000
1714. 1745N 07400W 03045 0137 327 004 132 036 007 03229 0000000000
1715 1743N 07359W 03050 0138 245 005 132 032 006 03234 0000000000
1715. 1741N 07359W 03050 0139 222 003 128 038 003 03236 0000000000
1716 1740N 07358W 03046 0139 227 005 124 044 010 03231 0000000000
More like 17.8 74W
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ronjon wrote:Using the IR SAT, it looks to me to be moving almost due west over the last several hours just south of the SW peninsula of Haiti. I'd normally use the VIS SAT but the center is obscured by high cirrus.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
I agree. By the looks of the WV loop it appears that the strong HIGH to it's North is putting a squeeze play on Ernesto. The Northern part of the CDO has been push a little South and we could possibly see a more West or even a little South of West movement today if this trend contiunes and the High remains strong IMO.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
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- saints63213
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drezee wrote:drezee wrote:1707. 1737N 07343W 03048 0136 353 002 108 066 005 03231 0000000000
that seems likw the center fix. So
17.6N 73.7W os so
Should have waited for the next fix.
1712 1748N 07356W 03049 0134 051 016 128 042 020 03230 0000000000
1712. 1749N 07358W 03051 0137 057 021 120 056 024 03234 0000000000
1713 1750N 07359W 03045 0144 064 020 116 060 024 03236 0000000000
1713. 1748N 07401W 03050 0145 044 014 132 044 015 03242 0000000000
1714 1747N 07400W 03047 0136 023 009 132 038 011 03230 0000000000
1714. 1745N 07400W 03045 0137 327 004 132 036 007 03229 0000000000
1715 1743N 07359W 03050 0138 245 005 132 032 006 03234 0000000000
1715. 1741N 07359W 03050 0139 222 003 128 038 003 03236 0000000000
1716 1740N 07358W 03046 0139 227 005 124 044 010 03231 0000000000
More like 17.8 74W
I would think its more like 17.4N and 73.5W would be the dead center because of the low winds in that area. almost like its a closed off low or eye.
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- WindRunner
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- cycloneye
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What happened with the VDM?
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Accu Weather is still expecting the ridge over the SE CONUS to build and from the sounds of it seem not so sure of a Florida cross over into the Atlantic..........
The latest satellite imagery is showing thunderstorms becoming more numerous and more symmetrical about Ernesto's center. The southwesterly upper-level winds that have been causing wind shear are lessening as clouds on satellite imagery between the upper-level low near Honduras and Ernesto are showing signs of less movement to the northeast and slowly drifting to the north. Deep warm waters are concentrated in the northwestern Caribbean, and Ernesto should traverse these waters over the next day or two which should also promote strengthening. Although possible interaction with the south coast of Haiti and the island of Jamaica may slow the strengthening somewhat, Ernesto could still become a major hurricane once it reaches parts of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Ernesto will cause life-threatening flooding rains and gusty winds across western Hispaniola and Jamaica Sunday and Sunday night, and these conditions will shift into the eastern half of Cuba Sunday night and Monday. Ernesto should move across Cuba by Tuesday, perhaps maintaining hurricane strength. Ernesto, intensifying even more as it refuels with warm Gulf of Mexico waters, could spread some very heavy rain northward into Florida. Offshore waters could become very rough with waves exceeding 10 feet. We expect that high pressure will build southeastward across the southeastern United States Sunday through Wednesday. This high could have a big influence on the direction and strength of Ernesto around midweek. All interests from Louisiana to the Carolinas should monitor the developments of Ernesto.
The latest satellite imagery is showing thunderstorms becoming more numerous and more symmetrical about Ernesto's center. The southwesterly upper-level winds that have been causing wind shear are lessening as clouds on satellite imagery between the upper-level low near Honduras and Ernesto are showing signs of less movement to the northeast and slowly drifting to the north. Deep warm waters are concentrated in the northwestern Caribbean, and Ernesto should traverse these waters over the next day or two which should also promote strengthening. Although possible interaction with the south coast of Haiti and the island of Jamaica may slow the strengthening somewhat, Ernesto could still become a major hurricane once it reaches parts of the southeastern Gulf of Mexico Tuesday night and Wednesday. Ernesto will cause life-threatening flooding rains and gusty winds across western Hispaniola and Jamaica Sunday and Sunday night, and these conditions will shift into the eastern half of Cuba Sunday night and Monday. Ernesto should move across Cuba by Tuesday, perhaps maintaining hurricane strength. Ernesto, intensifying even more as it refuels with warm Gulf of Mexico waters, could spread some very heavy rain northward into Florida. Offshore waters could become very rough with waves exceeding 10 feet. We expect that high pressure will build southeastward across the southeastern United States Sunday through Wednesday. This high could have a big influence on the direction and strength of Ernesto around midweek. All interests from Louisiana to the Carolinas should monitor the developments of Ernesto.
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067
SXXX50 KNHC 271729
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 18 KNHC
1719. 1727N 07358W 03044 0139 268 011 112 050 012 03230 0000000000
1720 1725N 07358W 03050 0141 274 013 114 052 014 03238 0000000000
1720. 1724N 07356W 03049 0143 255 013 112 052 013 03238 0000000000
1721 1724N 07354W 03046 0142 240 012 110 054 012 03235 0000000000
1721. 1725N 07353W 03051 0146 210 012 112 052 013 03243 0000000000
1722 1727N 07352W 03048 0144 198 011 116 050 013 03239 0000000000
1722. 1728N 07354W 03046 0140 200 008 114 050 009 03232 0000000000
1723 1729N 07355W 03048 0140 229 006 114 046 007 03235 0000000000
1723. 1730N 07356W 03046 0139 277 007 116 044 007 03231 0000000000
1724 1732N 07358W 03049 0136 253 007 114 046 009 03231 0000000000
1724. 1733N 07359W 03049 0136 243 006 110 050 006 03231 0000000000
1725 1734N 07400W 03048 0135 207 006 108 058 008 03230 0000000000
1725. 1735N 07402W 03047 0137 225 002 110 058 004 03230 0000000000
1726 1736N 07403W 03049 0140 149 004 110 058 007 03235 0000000000
1726. 1738N 07405W 03047 0139 196 005 114 054 007 03233 0000000000
1727 1739N 07406W 03048 0139 188 006 116 050 007 03233 0000000000
1727. 1740N 07407W 03049 0140 160 005 120 050 006 03236 0000000000
1728 1741N 07409W 03046 0140 151 006 120 048 007 03233 0000000000
1728. 1743N 07410W 03048 0138 135 004 120 046 005 03233 0000000000
1729 1744N 07412W 03048 0138 080 003 120 042 003 03232 0000000000
;
SXXX50 KNHC 271729
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 18 KNHC
1719. 1727N 07358W 03044 0139 268 011 112 050 012 03230 0000000000
1720 1725N 07358W 03050 0141 274 013 114 052 014 03238 0000000000
1720. 1724N 07356W 03049 0143 255 013 112 052 013 03238 0000000000
1721 1724N 07354W 03046 0142 240 012 110 054 012 03235 0000000000
1721. 1725N 07353W 03051 0146 210 012 112 052 013 03243 0000000000
1722 1727N 07352W 03048 0144 198 011 116 050 013 03239 0000000000
1722. 1728N 07354W 03046 0140 200 008 114 050 009 03232 0000000000
1723 1729N 07355W 03048 0140 229 006 114 046 007 03235 0000000000
1723. 1730N 07356W 03046 0139 277 007 116 044 007 03231 0000000000
1724 1732N 07358W 03049 0136 253 007 114 046 009 03231 0000000000
1724. 1733N 07359W 03049 0136 243 006 110 050 006 03231 0000000000
1725 1734N 07400W 03048 0135 207 006 108 058 008 03230 0000000000
1725. 1735N 07402W 03047 0137 225 002 110 058 004 03230 0000000000
1726 1736N 07403W 03049 0140 149 004 110 058 007 03235 0000000000
1726. 1738N 07405W 03047 0139 196 005 114 054 007 03233 0000000000
1727 1739N 07406W 03048 0139 188 006 116 050 007 03233 0000000000
1727. 1740N 07407W 03049 0140 160 005 120 050 006 03236 0000000000
1728 1741N 07409W 03046 0140 151 006 120 048 007 03233 0000000000
1728. 1743N 07410W 03048 0138 135 004 120 046 005 03233 0000000000
1729 1744N 07412W 03048 0138 080 003 120 042 003 03232 0000000000
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