Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[CrazyC83]

I'm starting to think it is already turning and could miss Florida entirely...

[Derek Ortt]

this is not in any way a developing hurricane

There is an upper low to the north shearing it severely. Yesterday, it did not look as if this low would have an impact, but today it has dropped SW

[Trugunzn]

did it make landfall?

[dwg71]

this is not in any way a developing hurricane

There is an upper low to the north shearing it severely. Yesterday, it did not look as if this low would have an impact, but today it has dropped SW

Derek, saw you post in TA forum - didnt have time to respond. Thanks for all you do, no flaming is due. It just shows us that we have a long way to go on predicting long term weather patterns. I mean long term by longer than 24 hours. Especially in the tropics. I am leaning towards Ernie never gaining hurricane strength again. Any northerly component that would take it over a fat part of Cuba would be its demise.

[ronjon]

12z GFS thru heart of FL..

Sounds like a hurricane Donna scenario.

[WindRunner]

SXXX50 KNHC 271749
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 20 KNHC
1739. 1810N 07441W 03049 0141 090 016 090 078 016 03237 0000000000
1740 1812N 07443W 03048 0142 089 017 086 078 017 03237 0000000000
1740. 1813N 07444W 03047 0141 093 017 086 078 017 03235 0000000000
1741 1814N 07445W 03049 0143 087 016 086 080 017 03238 0000000000
1741. 1815N 07447W 03048 0143 090 017 080 080 017 03237 0000000000
1742 1817N 07448W 03048 0143 095 016 084 076 017 03238 0000000000
1742. 1818N 07450W 03049 0144 095 017 082 076 017 03240 0000000000
1743 1819N 07451W 03047 0145 095 017 080 078 017 03238 0000000000
1743. 1821N 07453W 03048 0144 097 019 080 080 020 03239 0000000000
1744 1822N 07454W 03049 0144 104 021 078 078 022 03239 0000000000
1744. 1823N 07456W 03049 0145 100 018 080 080 019 03240 0000000000
1745 1824N 07457W 03048 0146 105 017 080 080 019 03241 0000000000
1745. 1826N 07459W 03049 0148 098 015 080 080 017 03243 0000000000
1746 1827N 07500W 03048 0147 103 013 082 082 013 03241 0000000000
1746. 1828N 07501W 03047 0147 106 015 080 080 016 03241 0000000000
1747 1830N 0offW6v 03048 0147 111 016 080 080 016 03242 0000000000
1747. 1831N 07504W 03048 0148 110 016 082 082 017 03243 0000000000
1748 1832N 07506W 03048 0148 110 016 080 080 017 03242 0000000000
1748. 1833N 07507W 03048 0147 106 014 080 080 014 03242 0000000000
1749 1835N 07509W 03048 0148 091 017 084 082 018 03242 0000000000

Continuing NW.

[Wthrman13]

this is not in any way a developing hurricane

There is an upper low to the north shearing it severely. Yesterday, it did not look as if this low would have an impact, but today it has dropped SW

Derek, I disagree strongly about the shear. Sure, there is a prominent outflow channel to the north of the hurricane that is in an area of strong shear, but the core of the system itself is under very light shear. Take a look at the CIMSS analysis:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... g8sht.html

If anything, that outflow channel into the UL to its north will aid in development, per the NHC discussion this morning. I think the biggest problem with the organization of the storm right now is land interaction disrupting the circulation.

[wxman57]

Wouldn't it be a little amusing if they couldn't close off a center?

No, I guess that would be more just plain strange . . .

It's a hurricane with a developing eyewall...impossible.

I wouldn't assume it's still a hurricane. So far, haven't max FL winds been 44kts? Or did I miss some higher reports?

[mtm4319]

[tailgater]

Looks like it's back to TS status.
I'm taking all bets

[Brent]

LOL... I'm sorry, but this storm keeps getting more and more strange.

[WindRunner]

Wouldn't it be a little amusing if they couldn't close off a center?

No, I guess that would be more just plain strange . . .

It's a hurricane with a developing eyewall...impossible.

I wouldn't assume it's still a hurricane. So far, haven't max FL winds been 44kts? Or did I miss some higher reports?

Nope . . . 44kts, and well removed from where the center should be.

[mtm4319]

Highest FL winds were 49 knots, shown on the map I posted on page 12 of the recon reports thread.

[LanceW]

Have they found a center? I have not seen a VDM.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z GFS thru heart of FL..

Sounds like a hurricane Donna scenario.

12z NOGAP agrees

[Brent]

Have they found a center? I have not seen a VDM.

No they haven't.

[LanceW]

Looks like it's back to TS status.
I'm taking all bets

Not taking that bet. Has anyone seen a VDM? Where is the center?

[mtm4319]

Forget Cuba, Haiti is tearing this apart...

[curtadams]

It's definitely hard to find the center on this thing. We've proven that satellite imagery can be deceiving, even to those of us who've been using it since it was first available (when it was chisled into stone tablets).

Yes, and this storm has been the worst! Varying shear, relocating centers, a big CDO deck for a storm this size, no eye, now land interaction - it doesn't get much more challenging than this.

[LanceW]

No they haven't.

Noob question, if there is no center, what is it then? Can you have a TS with no center?