Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Portastorm]

This reminds me of Claudette's collapse in the Caribbean 3 years ago

Yikes! Claudette? Well, I'm sure you are referring to the storm's structure with no suggestion of eventual path.

Claudette did a number on some friends' houses in Matagorda, even as a Cat-1.

[miamicanes177]

NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER NORTH ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO (AL052006) ON 20060827 1800 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS... ...36 HRS...
060827 1800 060828 0600 060828 1800 060829 0600

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 17.8N 74.0W 18.9N 75.8W 19.8N 77.4W 20.6N 78.9W
BAMM 17.8N 74.0W 19.0N 76.0W 20.1N 77.8W 21.0N 79.3W
A98E 17.8N 74.0W 18.8N 75.3W 19.8N 76.8W 20.9N 78.4W
LBAR 17.8N 74.0W 18.8N 75.7W 20.2N 77.4W 21.6N 79.1W
SHIP 50KTS 56KTS 64KTS 72KTS
DSHP 50KTS 56KTS 54KTS 39KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS... ..120 HRS...
060829 1800 060830 1800 060831 1800 060901 1800

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMD 21.5N 80.4W 23.0N 82.4W 23.9N 83.6W 25.4N 85.8W
BAMM 21.9N 80.6W 23.7N 82.1W 25.5N 81.8W 27.1N 80.3W
A98E 22.6N 79.9W 26.0N 82.7W 28.6N 82.4W 30.7N 78.6W
LBAR 22.8N 80.5W 24.5N 82.1W 25.7N 82.7W 27.0N 83.0W
SHIP 79KTS 86KTS 89KTS 87KTS
DSHP 45KTS 52KTS 37KTS 33KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 17.8N LONCUR = 74.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 8KT
LATM12 = 16.8N LONM12 = 72.8W DIRM12 = 306DEG SPDM12 = 8KT
LATM24 = 15.7N LONM24 = 71.2W
WNDCUR = 50KT RMAXWD = 10NM WNDM12 = 55KT
CENPRS = 1002MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 80NM RD34SE = 110NM RD34SW = 20NM RD34NW = 0NM

[storms in NC]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-wv.html
Looking bad to me

[Trugunzn]

even though the convection isnt as strong the outflow looks way better.

[CrazyC83]

It must be over Haiti. It will not lose much more cause of the water it has to work with around the storm. Then when it leaves Of the coast of Haiti watch it fire Back up.

The southwestern tip of Haiti is very mountainous though, and that zaps hurricanes apart. Unfortunately, looking at Google Earth, there are hardly any trees on any of those mountains, making them extremely prone to mudslides. There is one decent-sized city, Les Cayes, at the bottom of one of those; hopefully no mudslides make it into there.

I agree, the 1002 is way too high for a hurricane-strength storm, so either the pressure is wrong or the winds are wrong or both are wrong. (I think it is still 997 with 65 mph winds personally)

[HurricaneHunter914]

IMO he'll disappate soon over Cuba. There's not enough time for strengthening over water, maybe a temporary strengthening but the mountains will hurt him badly. He was just a joke like Chris..

[LAwxrgal]

Are any reports coming in out of Haiti re: rainfall, flooding, etc?

[jhamps10]

guys, I go to church this morning thinking omg tampa is going to be hit by a major, and I come home to this! I am honestly confused here. I don't want to go off track here, but just think what the media hype WOULD have been had he not had 2 reporters released in Israel, and a plane crash in Kentucky. Sad as the plane crash is, I'm kinda glad that we don't have hurricane hype here. But back on track here, I have not seen any sat. images yet, where is this thing going, it's direction, and what the heck happened to it?

[Derek Ortt]

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... idshr.html

Ernesto got hit by very strong mid level SW shear from a mid level anti-cyclone to its east.

Quickly caused a significant weakening of the system. Could recover some as it moves NW, but it is going have to reorganize itself completely after being rocked this morning and early afternoon

[jaxfladude]

Man, what a difference a few hours makes!!!!!

[kevin]

Haiti has very little forest left, they still get a very large portion of their 'energy' from charcoal. Haiti = worst country in the Western hemisphere, and I'm sure those people are going through a very bad day.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Well it appears that the multiple outflow channels ventilating an organized storm, kind of dry out one with 50% over moutainous terrain. It's still plenty dangerous, when it get's back over warm water. Once clear of Hsp. this will be back to Hurricane strength. The track is huge factor i.e. over the higher elevations in Cuba or more over water.

[El Nino]

I don't understand why we're saying that Ernesto will dissipate or even looking bad. This system has still quite deep convection, rotation, nice outflow. It's just "taking a break" above Haiti and it will be back over warm waters, it will fire up again.
Bythe way, this 1002mb and 35 kts looks very strange, and I'm thinking about a center relocation.
The beast will be back with vengeance.

[mtm4319]

The latest set of minobs is 10 minutes late; just as well, as I'm ready to stop posting the maps for now. If anyone wants to take over, feel free.

[StormsAhead]

UZNT13 KNHC 271811
XXAA 77177 99174 70739 04473 99002 28427 18516 00021 28427 18516
92714 26856 18513 85460 23860 21019 70126 11456 24512 88999 77999
31313 09608 81720
61616 AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 08
62626 SPL 1741N07390W 1724 MBL WND 18017 AEV 20604 DLM WND 20514
002737 WL150 18517 075 =
XXBB 77178 99174 70739 04473 00002 28427 11970 26017 22960 27056
33943 27857 44850 23860 55721 14056 66697 11056
21212 00002 18516 11960 17519 22940 17511 33907 19517 44879 18525
55850 21019 66776 26511 77697 24512
31313 09608 81720
61616 AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 08
62626 SPL 1741N07390W 1724 MBL WND 18017 AEV 20604 DLM WND 20514
002737 WL150 18517 075 =
;

1002mb

[Trugunzn]

this do not look like 1002mb 35kts.

[WindRunner]

SXXX50 KNHC 271820
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 23 KNHC
1809. 1735N 07523W 03048 0143 015 006 082 074 007 03238 0000000000
1810 1733N 07523W 03048 0144 013 007 084 074 007 03238 0000000000
1810. 1731N 07524W 03049 0144 011 007 086 072 007 03239 0000000000
1811 1729N 07524W 03047 0144 001 006 088 062 007 03237 0000000000
1811. 1727N 07524W 03049 0144 345 006 090 046 007 03240 0000000000
1812 1725N 07524W 03047 0145 333 005 090 040 005 03238 0000000000
1812. 1723N 07524W 03048 0145 300 006 094 042 007 03240 0000000000
1813 1721N 07524W 03049 0146 299 006 096 042 007 03242 0000000000
1813. 1719N 07524W 03047 0145 295 007 092 046 007 03239 0000000000
1814 1717N 07524W 03048 0146 291 009 090 048 009 03241 0000000000
1814. 1715N 07525W 03049 0146 290 009 090 052 010 03241 0000000000
1815 1713N 07525W 03048 0147 296 008 088 054 008 03241 0000000000
1815. 1711N 07525W 03048 0147 291 011 092 054 012 03241 0000000000
1816 1709N 07525W 03048 0146 290 013 094 050 014 03240 0000000000
1816. 1707N 07525W 03048 0146 291 014 096 050 014 03240 0000000000
1817 1705N 07525W 03049 0146 284 014 098 046 014 03242 0000000000
1817. 1703N 07525W 03047 0146 277 012 100 046 012 03240 0000000000
1818 1701N 07526W 03049 0147 281 011 096 050 011 03243 0000000000
1818. 1659N 07526W 03047 0146 284 012 096 044 012 03240 0000000000
1819 1657N 07526W 03047 0146 281 013 096 038 013 03240 0000000000

And StormsAhead, if you're going to be sticking around, you can have the data back. I've got to go as well.

[bjackrian]

mtm--if you have the link where you're getting the maps from, I could probably keep it going for a bit.

[miamicanes177]

Derek, is it possible the storm will form a new center perhaps futher south to reorganize itself?

[theworld]

Well it appears that the multiple outflow channels ventilating an organized storm, kind of dry out one with 50% over moutainous terrain. It's still plenty dangerous, when it get's back over warm water. Once clear of Hsp. this will be back to Hurricane strength. The track is huge factor i.e. over the higher elevations in Cuba or more over water.

warmer SST's http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/sst/oper/natl_sst_oper0.gif