Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Bgator]

Looking at visible, the overall center looks better you can see the swirl and tight banding taking place, its just lacking deep convection...IR can be decieving..Though i do think it has weakened once this moves away from HAiti it should develop quite quickly before hitting cuba, this will be key, if it hits a smaller portion, regeneration once hitting FLA straights or GOM will be easier.

[Dean4Storms]

12z WRF/NAM develops a second TC out in gulf again for the 2nd run in a row. I know this model has been storm happy with the Gulf lately, but there is a low in the SW Carib........


http://weather.cod.edu/forecast/loop.etauspcp.html

[StormsAhead]

1002mb pressure recorded with a dropsonde

[fci]

IMO he'll disappate soon over Cuba. There's not enough time for strengthening over water, maybe a temporary strengthening but the mountains will hurt him badly. He was just a joke like Chris..

Is there a punchline for the "joke"?

Think if he causes mud slides in Haiti or Cuba, it will still be a joke??

[Weatherfreak000]

Could the center reform again under the second blob of convection?

[tampastorm]

All these reports of 1002 mb is in the southside correct? Where the stronger winds would be in the North side which the plane has not gone to yet. So these talks of a tropical depression are premature. Someone please correct me if I am wrong.

[theworld]

Now this recent Sat image from NRL is very interesting re:ciculation/center/blowup of some convec. http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

[Thunder44]

mtm--if you have the link where you're getting the maps from, I could probably keep it going for a bit.

I'll put one up in a moment.

[Dean4Storms]

Convection is beginning to refire around the center.

[ROCK]

Could the center reform again under the second blob of convection?

not over the those moutains it won't...

[El Nino]

50 kts looks more reasonable ...

[miamicanes177]

I already posted the model run cycloneye

[Windtalker1]

Convection is beginning to refire around the center.

He just took a breather...he will be back, stronger I'm afraid.

[gatorcane]

Looks like it is still trying to jog north based on the latest vis loop.... Unbelievable since it would miss alot of land interaction if it jumps north.

[conestogo_flood]

Why does it say Tropical Storm Ernesto, when the NHC, NWS and CNN all say Hurricane Ernesto?

[dwg71]

Convection is beginning to refire around the center.

He just took a breather...he will be back, stronger I'm afraid.

The convection just off the coast of Haiti will move over the mountains in the next hour and be gone... If restrengthening occurs it wont be until it clear Hisp. I dont see it happening though. 50Kts will be the peak for this storm IMO. Land interaction, shear, and current state is what I am basing this on.

[cheezyWXguy]

Because it initialized at 50kts, not 65...

[WxGuy1]

Prime example of the difficulty of forecast for developing systems! Heck, even the NHC noted a probable "rapid intensification starting" in their 5am discussion. Instead, as it appears, there was rather rapid weakening. 3-4-5 day forecasts are useless if we can't get 6-hr forecasts correct. Developing cyclones tend to be very fickle, and we just don't know about them to always have high confidence in intensity changes.

Where are folks getting 1002mb central pressure? The vortex message had 1007mb? If 1002mb is on the advisory, but there is no recon to support that (e.g. no dropsonde), then I think they may be time-averaging a bit to make it a little less shocking.

[Portastorm]

Reminds me of a quote I saw from a pro met on another board when he was told by the late, great John Hope, that speaking of tropical systems: "You can never be too smart about these things."

[Thunder44]