Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[theworld]

Ernesto is dead. I think mid-level shear mustve gotten it or something. Same as Chris. Story of the season. We can all relax now.

Really?

1809. 1735N 07523W 03048 0143 015 006 082 074 007 03238 0000000000

[bombarderoazul]

Another one bites the dust.

[gatorcane]

Prime example of the difficulty of forecast for developing systems! Heck, even the NHC noted a probable "rapid intensification starting" in their 5am discussion. Instead, as it appears, there was rather rapid weakening. 3-4-5 day forecasts are useless if we can't get 6-hr forecasts correct. Developing cyclones tend to be very fickle, and we just don't know about them to always have high confidence in intensity changes.

Where are folks getting 1002mb central pressure? The vortex message had 1007mb?

The situation with this storm has been unique. I think the strong TUTT low that was moving off to the west in tandem with this storm really confused the models. I think if it were not for that TUTT low a more WNW to W track would have happened.

[cheezyWXguy]

Ernesto is dead. I think mid-level shear mustve gotten it or something. Same as Chris. Story of the season. We can all relax now.

HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA!!! U have to be joking. You cant just assume that. There has been no proof. Whats your reasoning?

[dwg71]

what does a 7 kt wind have to do with anything...

[Windtalker1]

Ernesto is dead. I think mid-level shear mustve gotten it or something. Same as Chris. Story of the season. We can all relax now.

Really?

1809. 1735N 07523W 03048 0143 015 006 082 074 007 03238 0000000000

Meaning?

[gatorcane]

Ernesto is dead. I think mid-level shear mustve gotten it or something. Same as Chris. Story of the season. We can all relax now.

no way I completely disagree. Just wait until it gets past these islands.

[Scorpion]

Another one bites the dust.

Story of the season I'm afraid. I guess its good news... however all this time tracking and anticipation for nothing. *sigh*

[theworld]

what does a 7 kt wind have to do with anything...

I guess I read the wrong column.

[OrlandoDad]

I have been to the southern Haiti peninsula, and the mountains are numerous and fairly high. It is not as deforested as the northern part of Haiti where Jeane killed so many people as a TS, but it's still pretty bare. The rivers in southern Haiti, like the Baradares River, flood easily, so I'm sure there will be many deaths. The homes are, for the most part, shacks and shanties, so many will be homeless.

The land mass there is significant enough to weaken Ernesto, but I think not enough to kill him, unless he dawdles.

In the mean time, please pray for the Haitian people.

[tampastorm]

Have they flown threw the North end yet?

[gatorcane]

let me ask again, does anybody see the northern jog over the last few frames. Looks like NNW heading...I think it may not be over land that much at all I'm afraid.

[Thunder44]

957
SXXX50 KNHC 271830
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 24 KNHC
1819. 1655N 07526W 03050 0147 283 013 096 040 014 03243 0000000000
1820 1653N 07526W 03046 0147 276 013 096 038 013 03240 0000000000
1820. 1651N 07526W 03048 0147 273 013 098 040 014 03242 0000000000
1821 1649N 07526W 03048 0148 266 014 096 038 014 03243 0000000000
1821. 1647N 07526W 03048 0147 264 013 098 036 013 03242 0000000000
1822 1645N 07527W 03048 0147 263 012 100 036 012 03242 0000000000
1822. 1643N 07527W 03048 0147 263 011 096 036 011 03241 0000000000
1823 1641N 07527W 03048 0148 264 011 096 036 011 03242 0000000000
1823. 1639N 07527W 03049 0148 274 011 092 040 011 03244 0000000000
1824 1637N 07527W 03046 0147 273 010 092 040 011 03240 0000000000
1824. 1635N 07527W 03049 0149 275 011 096 036 011 03244 0000000000
1825 1633N 07527W 03048 0148 276 011 096 036 011 03243 0000000000
1825. 1631N 07528W 03048 0148 275 011 098 038 012 03243 0000000000
1826 1629N 07528W 03048 0149 271 012 100 032 013 03244 0000000000
1826. 1627N 07528W 03047 0148 272 012 102 024 012 03242 0000000000
1827 1625N 07528W 03048 0145 270 012 104 018 012 03239 0000000000
1827. 1623N 07528W 03049 0145 271 012 100 034 013 03241 0000000000
1828 1621N 07528W 03049 0146 265 012 100 038 012 03242 0000000000
1828. 1619N 07528W 03048 0146 271 012 100 042 012 03241 0000000000
1829 1617N 07528W 03049 0147 269 011 100 042 012 03243 0000000000
;

[StormsAhead]

URNT11 KNHC 271833
97779 18304 10163 75400 30400 26011 10048 /3157
49905
RMK AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 11

[jaxfladude]

Man. just in the last 20-30 mins or so I edited my remarks 2x due to talk that "Ernesto" was a goner or almost. Here is my first remark beofre the edits:

Trugunzn said: "even though the convection isnt as strong the outflow looks way better.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/rb-l.jpg '

That Does mean that once "Ernesto" gets back over open water that he will get his act back together faster, I hope not!!!!


AS bad as it will be for those islands down there Cuba/Jamaica(not as much if at all) Hispaniola, I hope that the mountains do in fact tear apart "Ernesto" as they have in previous storms...PRAYER FOR ALL OF THOSE WILL HAVE BEEN ARE GOING THROUGH AND WILL GO THROUGH "Ernesto"

[skysummit]

Dude...no offense, but you're nuts. You bounce around so much I'd sware you're browsing the forums on a trampoline. It's either falling apart or a major hurricane with you.

[PTrackerLA]

I wonder what kind of implications the weakening will have on the future track. Ernesto sure doesn't seem to be moving much right now.

[millibar]

Dead? Ummm...I don't think so...

...looking at all the sat links, it appears to me that Ernesto istrying to reform its center a little ESE of last posit.
Time will tell...

Regards,
Millibar

[Innotech]

Actually, it looks like a reorganization phase is taking place, along with a center relocation (as evidenced by both a weakening in windspeed and difficulty locating the center) On visible it appears as though the storm is finally passing far enough from the mountains to improve outflow and become symettrical. It also seems as though this has forced the center relocation (possibly to that new blowup of convection to the northeast?)

[BensonTCwatcher]

Man, all the "storm cancel" folks. If in 12 hrs we are watching this system over central Cuba, then we woudl see that happening. A LOT of people were calling for Charley to cancel in this vicinity too. Just like we don't go from TD to Cat 5, we also don't go from Cat 1 to dissipated that fast. The danger now is folks thinking the threat has diminished, it hasn't.