Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Aquawind]

I haven't seen all of the VDM plots but it sure seemed like this came up with more of a northward component against the tip of Haiti then kind of slowed and is now rolling off more westward around the Tip.

[gatorcane]

although the convection has died off some there is some extremely impressive outflow and is very symmetric. The shear is really starting to relax I'm afraid, SSTs are running around 86 where it is headed. Get ready folks, I'm in for the long ride - I'll be back later this evening.....

[craptacular]

407
SXXX50 KNHC 271950
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 31 KNHC
1929. 1745N 07235W 02393 0102 172 035 102 102 035 02539 0000000000
1930 1744N 07235W 02253 0095 174 035 114 114 036 02392 0000000000
1930. 1743N 07234W 02124 0097 177 035 126 126 035 02255 0000000000
1931 1741N 07235W 01993 0088 178 035 134 134 036 02115 0000000000
1931. 1740N 07235W 01878 0080 175 034 136 136 034 01992 0000000000
1932 1739N 07236W 01778 0074 175 035 148 148 035 01885 0000000000
1932. 1737N 07236W 01682 0067 171 036 156 140 036 01782 0000000000
1933 1736N 07237W 01575 0060 167 037 164 134 037 01668 0000000000
1933. 1735N 07238W 01532 0057 167 037 168 150 038 01622 0000000000
1934 1734N 07238W 01523 0056 164 037 166 150 038 01612 0000000000
1934. 1732N 07239W 01526 0055 163 037 164 152 038 01614 0000000000
1935 1731N 07239W 01522 0055 164 038 166 152 039 01610 0000000000
1935. 1730N 07240W 01525 0056 164 037 162 154 038 01614 0000000000
1936 1728N 07241W 01523 0055 166 037 162 160 037 01610 0000000000
1936. 1727N 07241W 01525 0055 164 038 166 158 038 01613 0000000000
1937 1726N 07242W 01524 0055 166 037 166 152 038 01611 0000000000
1937. 1725N 07242W 01525 0054 167 037 166 152 037 01611 0000000000
1938 1723N 07243W 01523 0053 169 038 166 150 038 01609 0000000000
1938. 1722N 07244W 01524 0053 168 037 168 152 038 01609 0000000000
1939 1721N 07244W 01525 0053 171 035 166 158 035 01611 0000000000
;

down to ~5000 ft

[Regit]

I'd keep an eye on the GFS Run

Very interesting prospect. Wants to have two big strikes, one near Miami and one near Wilmington.

This is Charley-esque, only farther east. This would allow more time over water before the second landfall.

This looks a little like the NOGAPS too, only it spends more time over FL and takes it in at Myrtle Beach.

I'm not going to completely buy into it yet. I want to see the trends persist as far as models go.

[Sanibel]

Air Force Met was right about the center not being under the vortex before. It appeared in the new vortex that is now bee-lining across SW Haiti on its way to a clear pass through the Windward Passage.

This is bad if it gets north of Cuba clear and heads towards the Keys.

Going to gas cars now.

[gatorcane]

I'd keep an eye on the GFS Run

Very interesting prospect. Wants to have two big strikes, one near Miami and one near Wilmington.

This is Charley-esque, only farther east. This would allow more time over water before the second landfall.

This looks a little like the NOGAPS too, only it spends more time over FL and takes it in at Myrtle Beach.

I'm not going to completely buy into it yet. I want to see the trends persist as far as models go.

wow still trending east....interesting....wasn't it Evil Jeremy that several days ago thought this was a South Florida storm???? He may be right

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Ok back to being more serious....See You see a high at the lower levels 850 north of it with steering currents to the west....Then you see a trough over the central US around 105 or so west. This is whats going to weaken the high. As you can see going up from 700 to 500 millibars theres a soild high to the north. With steering currents westward. Which would push this westward...But at 400 and 300-200 millibars you see a second high at 70 west...Which has flow out of the south. Maybe even a weak area between the two highs. This system is about ready to move into the stronger western high which starts at 75 west.

So yes this could turn westward.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

Ok back to being more serious....See You see a high at the lower levels 850 north of it with steering currents to the west....Then you see a trough over the central US around 105 or so west. This is whats going to weaken the high. As you can see going up from 700 to 500 millibars theres a soild high to the north. With steering currents westward. Which would push this westward...But at 400 and 300 millibars you see a second high at 70 west...Which has flow out of the south. Maybe even a weak area between the two highs. This system is about ready to move into the stronger western high which starts at 75 west.

So yes this could turn westward.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

based on this map...what would turn this northward? Doesn't seem like anything ATM.

[Dean4Storms]

I agree there Ronjon, yesterday with that run we all discounted it as being too far right when the models had the ridge too strong and had Ernesto headed toward LA. Now it looks too me that they went way off to the right over weakening the ridge in response to the shortwave that I just don't see pushing down into the Gulf. I think the GFDL is closer to the track than any of them right now and it has pretty much remained that way. I think things will become alot more clearer with the models come tomorrow after the upper air samplings tonight and they get fed better synoptics. I wouldn't be surprised too wake up tomorrow and see the tracks coming back more westward although I'm totally against it because any track toward the panhandle or Alabama would give it more time over the Gulf!

[Thunder44]

[LAwxrgal]

Dean4storms, you beat me to the punch. I was just going to comment on the GFDL being the most consistent model with the last 3 runs nearly identical - then you brought up yesterdays 06Z and wow - I'm putting my money on this model - it was the only one that modeled KAT correctly in S FL and it seems the best on Ernie.

In comparing the two runs, it seems the second run wants this storm to ride across Cuba. Wouldn't that make a weaker storm when/if it emerges? And also, both runs have E going into the same area but at different angles. I just found that interesting and wanted to comment. Thoughts?

[Kerry04]

Ok back to being more serious....See You see a high at the lower levels 850 north of it with steering currents to the west....Then you see a trough over the central US around 105 or so west. This is whats going to weaken the high. As you can see going up from 700 to 500 millibars theres a soild high to the north. With steering currents westward. Which would push this westward...But at 400 and 300-200 millibars you see a second high at 70 west...Which has flow out of the south. Maybe even a weak area between the two highs. This system is about ready to move into the stronger western high which starts at 75 west.

So yes this could turn westward.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real- ... 8dlm6.html

How westward are we talking about?

[craptacular]

326
URNT11 KNHC 271956
97779 19554 10167 73100 15300 18030 17168 /2505
41925
RMK AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 15
;

[Sanibel]

I think you people are missing this. It's slightly right again.

[Regit]

I think you people are missing this. It's slightly right again.

What is? Models or current movement? Link?

[robbielyn]

Why do you say poof another one bites the dust? This will get it's act together. But a cuba interaction may be too much for it. But I am not comfortable with saying poof yet. I do wonder if this will make it into the gulf.

[LAwxrgal]

We will know MUCH more tonight when the data from the NOAA synoptic flights gets ingested into the models. We will know if these models are "on crack" or if they are really on to something.

[craptacular]

they skipped a set ... or had it up for 15 seconds

heading back to the NW

627
SXXX50 KNHC 271959
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 33 KNHC
1949. 1654N 07256W 01524 0051 186 032 180 152 032 01608 0000000000
1950 1653N 07257W 01524 0051 184 031 182 154 032 01608 0000000000
1950. 1651N 07257W 01524 0051 181 030 180 150 030 01608 0000000000
1951 1650N 07258W 01525 0051 180 027 180 152 028 01609 0000000000
1951. 1649N 07259W 01522 0051 185 028 180 156 028 01606 0000000000
1952 1647N 07259W 01525 0051 186 028 176 160 028 01609 0000000000
1952. 1646N 07300W 01524 0052 188 027 174 160 027 01609 0000000000
1953 1645N 07300W 01523 0052 191 028 178 158 028 01608 0000000000
1953. 1643N 07301W 01524 0052 193 027 176 160 027 01609 0000000000
1954 1642N 07302W 01524 0051 195 027 176 162 027 01609 0000000000
1954. 1641N 07302W 01524 0056 194 027 170 168 028 01613 0000000000
1955 1641N 07304W 01525 0054 191 027 168 168 028 01612 0000000000
1955. 1643N 07305W 01524 0052 185 028 170 166 030 01609 0000000000
1956 1644N 07306W 01522 0051 186 029 170 168 030 01606 0000000000
1956. 1645N 07308W 01525 0050 182 029 172 168 030 01608 0000000000
1957 1647N 07309W 01523 0050 184 029 172 168 030 01606 0000000000
1957. 1648N 07310W 01525 0050 186 030 170 162 031 01608 0000000000
1958 1649N 07312W 01523 0049 189 030 170 160 030 01605 0000000000
1958. 1650N 07313W 01523 0050 193 031 172 158 032 01605 0000000000
1959 1652N 07314W 01525 0048 195 030 168 162 031 01606 0000000000

[conestogo_flood]

Is Ernesto landfalling on Les Cayes, Haiti? The city has 38,000 people. I cannot find pictures of the city, so it must be rather poor. Oh man, I feel bad.

[KWT]

Sanibel, recon fixes hasve shown that the storm has moved pretty much due west the last 1hr and is to the south of Haitiand looks like it'll stay that way unless it tracks NNW from now on.