Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[craptacular]

577
SXXX50 KNHC 272019
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 35 KNHC
2009. 1716N 07339W 01523 0038 197 031 170 162 032 01594 0000000000
2010 1717N 07341W 01523 0036 198 030 176 162 031 01592 0000000000
2010. 1719N 07342W 01526 0036 205 030 184 160 030 01595 0000000000
2011 1720N 07343W 01523 0034 201 031 176 166 031 01590 0000000000
2011. 1721N 07345W 01525 0033 196 031 178 164 031 01590 0000000000
2012 1722N 07346W 01523 0033 200 032 182 160 033 01589 0000000000
2012. 1724N 07347W 01523 0034 213 031 190 152 032 01590 0000000000
2013 1725N 07348W 01524 0032 222 028 194 156 030 01589 0000000000
2013. 1726N 07350W 01526 0031 214 028 196 156 030 01590 0000000000
2014 1727N 07351W 01523 0030 212 027 192 158 029 01586 0000000000
2014. 1728N 07352W 01524 0029 212 026 192 166 027 01586 0000000000
2015 1730N 07353W 01523 0027 212 025 190 174 025 01584 0000000000
2015. 1731N 07355W 01524 0025 208 024 194 180 024 01583 0000000000
2016 1732N 07356W 01525 0024 208 023 192 182 024 01582 0000000000
2016. 1733N 07357W 01524 0022 208 022 202 172 022 01578 0000000000
2017 1734N 07358W 01524 0019 212 020 210 160 021 01576 0000000000
2017. 1736N 07400W 01522 0015 211 018 220 150 019 01570 0000000000
2018 1737N 07401W 01526 0015 203 015 224 140 016 01573 0000000000
2018. 1738N 07402W 01524 0014 207 011 230 134 011 01570 0000000000
2019 1739N 07403W 01524 0013 193 009 224 138 009 01570 0000000000
;

[Sanibel]

Matt: It should average NW and clip the east boot of Cuba and towards the Keys.

[craptacular]

We've got three planes out there now. AF302, AF309, and NOAA9.

[fci]

I'd keep an eye on the GFS Run

Look at the two coming towards the Lesser Antilles too.

[Dean4Storms]

I think we are seeing the LLC turn more westerly and the MLC continue to more of a NW movement, thus all the confusion.

[Regit]

Matt: It should average NW and clip the east boot of Cuba and towards the Keys.

If it's going to have such a northerly component that it just clips Cuba, wouldn't it make more sense that the Miami-WPB region is in more danger than the keys?

[Aquawind]

Wow and one heading in from the SE for a VDM shortly..

[Thunder44]

[fci]

wow still trending east....interesting....wasn't it Evil Jeremy that several days ago thought this was a South Florida storm???? He may be right [/quote]

Remember about the broken clock being right 2 times a day!

[ConvergenceZone]

Sanibel, recon fixes hasve shown that the storm has moved pretty much due west the last 1hr and is to the south of Haitiand looks like it'll stay that way unless it tracks NNW from now on.

I credit myself with being able to read storms and their movements.

Keep watching this go NW and into the Windward Passage. The CDO just jacked practically straight north for goodness' sakes.

does this mean this is trending towards being a "fish" storm? If it's moving North, what will make it change and all of the sudden head for the keys?

[Wx_Warrior]

Interesting to hear what NCH will say at 4pm CST at press conf regarding Ernie

[Thatsmrhurricane]

NW 9mph 55kts. Keep the course with a hint towards a more N component.

[craptacular]

VDM expected soon

372
SXXX50 KNHC 272030
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 36 KNHC
2019. 1740N 07405W 01525 0013 211 005 228 134 007 01571 0000000000
2020 1740N 07407W 01522 0011 293 007 224 136 009 01566 0000000000
2020. 1741N 07408W 01525 0013 307 010 210 150 011 01570 0000000000
2021 1741N 07410W 01525 0014 334 013 198 166 014 01572 0000000000
2021. 1742N 07411W 01523 0014 345 015 192 174 016 01570 0000000000
2022 1744N 07412W 01525 0015 352 015 186 182 016 01573 0000000000
2022. 1745N 07413W 01524 0016 355 013 184 182 013 01574 0000000000
2023 1746N 07414W 01525 0018 010 011 180 180 012 01576 0000000000
2023. 1747N 07415W 01522 0018 020 012 178 178 013 01574 0000000000
2024 1748N 07417W 01525 0020 031 014 180 180 015 01578 0000000000
2024. 1749N 07418W 01523 0020 041 015 180 180 016 01575 0000000000
2025 1750N 07419W 01526 0020 048 017 178 178 017 01578 0000000000
2025. 1752N 07420W 01522 0022 047 014 178 174 014 01577 0000000000
2026 1753N 07421W 01524 0023 049 012 182 160 012 01580 0000000000
2026. 1754N 07423W 01527 0023 059 010 186 148 010 01583 0000000000
2027 1755N 07424W 01523 0024 053 010 186 150 011 01580 0000000000
2027. 1756N 07425W 01524 0024 072 008 184 150 011 01580 0000000000
2028 1758N 07426W 01525 0023 090 009 186 160 011 01581 0000000000
2028. 1759N 07428W 01522 0024 075 018 168 166 021 01578 0000000000
2029 1800N 07429W 01525 0025 070 022 164 164 022 01583 0000000000
;

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
2100 UTC SUN AUG 27 2006

AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 74.5W AT 27/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 7 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1007 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 25NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT....... 80NE 100SE 20SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 225SE 50SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 74.5W AT 27/2100Z
AT 27/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.7N 74.0W

FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.5W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 28/1800Z 20.7N 77.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 20SE 15SW 15NW.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 40SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 22.1N 79.1W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1800Z 23.5N 80.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1800Z 26.5N 82.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 90SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 31/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.0N 74.5W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Watches for the keys too, I hope.

[WindRunner]

For those who are wondering, AF302 is doing the traditional in-storm recon, AF309 is doing a cruising altitude survailance mission in the areas in front of Ernesto, and NOAA9 is doing high level survailance mission directly around Ernesto.

[Brent]

60 mph

AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT.

[Opal storm]

Is it me or does Ernesto look stalled?Or maybe it's just slowed down more,it just doesn't seem like it has moved much if any over the past few hours from my amatuer view.

[craptacular]

934
URNT12 KNHC 272032
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/20:19:20Z
B. 17 deg 40 min N
074 deg 06 min W
C. 850 mb 1465 m
D. 20 kt
E. 131 deg 018 nm
F. 195 deg 033 kt
G. 131 deg 062 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 17 C/ 1523 m
J. 23 C/ 1523 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 16
MAX FL WIND 33 KT E QUAD 20:00:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
;

[Stormcenter]

Ernesto has shrunk in size.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html