Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1
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- WindRunner
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URNT12 KNHC 272032
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/20:19:20Z
B. 17 deg 40 min N
074 deg 06 min W
C. 850 mb 1465 m
D. 20 kt
E. 131 deg 018 nm
F. 195 deg 033 kt
G. 131 deg 062 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 17 C/ 1523 m
J. 23 C/ 1523 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 16
MAX FL WIND 33 KT E QUAD 20:00:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
Shows pressure down to 1004mb (est.) and a healthier temperature profile.
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/20:19:20Z
B. 17 deg 40 min N
074 deg 06 min W
C. 850 mb 1465 m
D. 20 kt
E. 131 deg 018 nm
F. 195 deg 033 kt
G. 131 deg 062 nm
H. EXTRAP 1004 mb
I. 17 C/ 1523 m
J. 23 C/ 1523 m
K. 13 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 16
MAX FL WIND 33 KT E QUAD 20:00:40 Z
SLP EXTRAP FROM 850 MB
Shows pressure down to 1004mb (est.) and a healthier temperature profile.
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BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
...ERNESTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL BRINGING TORRENTIAL
RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI...ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI
TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA MONDAY
MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFTER
IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE
STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW
MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N...74.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
...ERNESTO WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM BUT STILL BRINGING TORRENTIAL
RAINS TO HAITI AND THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...
AT 5 PM...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WATCH IS ISSUED FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA TONIGHT.
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
AT 500 PM EDT...2100Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.5 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI...ABOUT 150
MILES...240 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF PORT AU PRINCE HAITI AND ABOUT
160 MILES...255 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.
ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH...13 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI
TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA MONDAY
MORNING.
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 60 MPH...95
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFTER
IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE
STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW
MORNING.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE RECENTLY REPORTED A MINIMUM
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.
TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.
REPEATING THE 500 PM EDT POSITION...18.0 N...74.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 8 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
PM EDT.
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#neversummer
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I see at least the MLC on visible moving northwestward. So this could move through the passage. Then will the high build to its north to push it to florida, or will this go northward...Then recurve out to sea with the weakness around 3 days. I don't see how it could get to above 27-28 north with a hit.
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- ConvergenceZone
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- Location: Quail Heights(Redlands), FL.

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- Innotech
- Category 5
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- Location: Lafayette, Louisiana
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Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html
Sanibel, looking at water vapor in putting it on the upper level chart maps. See how the ull to its north is slowly moving westward with the system. That will move the high over the Gulf-75 west, to the west. While keeping a weakness in the highs. I know see how this could in fact go northward.
Now the quastion is doe's it go through the passage or will it go over the thickest part of cuba?
yes, I pointed this out earlier. It might cause a more eastern landfall if it affects the storm enough.
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- ConvergenceZone
- Category 5
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- Location: Northern California
Matt-hurricanewatcher wrote:I see at least the MLC on visible moving northwestward. So this could move through the passage. Then will the high build to its north to push it to florida, or will this go northward...Then recurve out to sea with the weakness around 3 days. I don't see how it could get to above 27-28 north with a hit.
you may be right Matt, recurving out to sea and missing the USA alltogether may be more and more of a possibility now.
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TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
APPARENTLY...THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI HAS DISRUPTED THE CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED...THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO ABOUT 1004 MB...AND THE HIGHEST OBSERVED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 42 KT. IT IS PRESUMED THAT STRONGER WINDS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR
THE COASTLINE OF HAITI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PERHAPS
GENEROUSLY...AT 50 KT. SINCE ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ERNESTO WEAKENING AGAIN AS IT
MOVES OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CUBAN LAND MASS AND THEN
RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE IT
IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL DISRUPTION OF THE CIRCULATION
WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THERE IS MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
WIND SPEED FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH THE ILL-DEFINED INNER CORE HAS MADE CENTER FIXING RATHER
DIFFICULT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
310/7. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DROPS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE AFOREMENTIONED CHANGES IN
THE STEERING PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND U.K. MET OFFICE
TRACKS TO THE WEST...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFS TRACKS TO THE EAST. THE
GFS HAS SHIFTED EAST FROM THE EARLIER RUN AND THIS MODEL HAS NOT
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN THUS FAR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MAINLY OUT
OF RESPECT FOR THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFDL MODEL. THIS NHC FORECAST
IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 18.0N 74.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 20.7N 77.2W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 29/0600Z 22.1N 79.1W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 29/1800Z 23.5N 80.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 26.5N 82.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 50 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
500 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006
APPARENTLY...THE HIGHLY MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI HAS DISRUPTED THE CIRCULATION OF ERNESTO. THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER HAS BECOME BROAD AND ILL-DEFINED...THE MINIMUM
PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO ABOUT 1004 MB...AND THE HIGHEST OBSERVED
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS WERE 42 KT. IT IS PRESUMED THAT STRONGER WINDS
ARE OCCURRING IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT OF THE CYCLONE VERY NEAR
THE COASTLINE OF HAITI. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET...PERHAPS
GENEROUSLY...AT 50 KT. SINCE ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER THE
WATERS TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE WINDWARD PASSAGE AND UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING...THERE IS A WINDOW OF
OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO REGAIN HURRICANE STATUS PRIOR TO
CROSSING THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW MORNING. THE
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS ERNESTO WEAKENING AGAIN AS IT
MOVES OVER A SIGNIFICANT PORTION OF THE CUBAN LAND MASS AND THEN
RESTRENGTHENING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO. BECAUSE IT
IS NOT CERTAIN HOW MUCH ADDITIONAL DISRUPTION OF THE CIRCULATION
WILL OCCUR DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF LAND DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...THERE IS MORE THAN THE USUAL AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THIS
WIND SPEED FORECAST.
ALTHOUGH THE ILL-DEFINED INNER CORE HAS MADE CENTER FIXING RATHER
DIFFICULT...THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
310/7. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE AREA OVER THE
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD AS A TROUGH DROPS
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST IN 3 TO 5 DAYS. TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS ARE IN
GENERAL AGREEMENT ON A CONTINUED MOSTLY NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR
THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THEREAFTER...THE AFOREMENTIONED CHANGES IN
THE STEERING PATTERN ARE LIKELY TO INDUCE A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS ABOUT THE SAME AS THAT FROM THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THIS IS BETWEEN THE GFDL AND U.K. MET OFFICE
TRACKS TO THE WEST...AND THE NOGAPS AND GFS TRACKS TO THE EAST. THE
GFS HAS SHIFTED EAST FROM THE EARLIER RUN AND THIS MODEL HAS NOT
BEEN VERY CONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN THUS FAR. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST LEANS A LITTLE TO THE LEFT OF THE CONSENSUS...MAINLY OUT
OF RESPECT FOR THE USUALLY RELIABLE GFDL MODEL. THIS NHC FORECAST
IS ALSO VERY CLOSE TO THE LATEST FSU SUPERENSEMBLE TRACK.
A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS AND
ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED FOR THE FLORIDA
PENINSULA TONIGHT.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 27/2100Z 18.0N 74.5W 50 KT
12HR VT 28/0600Z 19.1N 75.5W 60 KT
24HR VT 28/1800Z 20.7N 77.2W 65 KT...INLAND
36HR VT 29/0600Z 22.1N 79.1W 60 KT...INLAND
48HR VT 29/1800Z 23.5N 80.8W 65 KT
72HR VT 30/1800Z 26.5N 82.5W 80 KT
96HR VT 31/1800Z 30.0N 82.0W 60 KT...INLAND
120HR VT 01/1800Z 34.0N 79.0W 50 KT...INLAND
$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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#neversummer
ConvergenceZone wrote:it would be something if this turns out to be a fish storm after all of this..I mean with the eastward trending models, the cone will be in the Atlantic soon..
If it strikes ANY island it won't be a fish storm... anyone would assume a "Category 3" poster would know that.
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- Category 2
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- Location: The Mad City, WI
025
SXXX50 KNHC 272039
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 37 KNHC
2029. 1801N 07430W 01524 0026 072 023 164 164 023 01582 0000000000
2030 1803N 07431W 01523 0026 065 025 160 160 026 01582 0000000000
2030. 1804N 07433W 01526 0027 066 028 162 162 028 01586 0000000000
2031 1805N 07434W 01522 0028 069 027 164 164 028 01583 0000000000
2031. 1806N 07435W 01526 0030 071 028 164 164 028 01589 0000000000
2032 1808N 07436W 01523 0031 070 027 160 160 027 01587 0000000000
2032. 1809N 07438W 01523 0033 062 027 160 160 028 01589 0000000000
2033 1810N 07439W 01525 0034 059 024 160 160 025 01592 0000000000
2033. 1811N 07440W 01524 0036 056 022 160 160 024 01593 0000000000
2034 1812N 07441W 01523 0036 050 019 164 158 020 01592 0000000000
2034. 1814N 07443W 01524 0037 037 016 166 156 017 01594 0000000000
2035 1815N 07444W 01525 0038 035 010 170 154 012 01595 0000000000
2035. 1816N 07445W 01523 0039 024 010 174 152 012 01594 0000000000
2036 1817N 07446W 01525 0039 023 010 172 152 011 01597 0000000000
2036. 1818N 07447W 01524 0040 031 010 168 154 011 01596 0000000000
2037 1819N 07449W 01524 0040 044 011 170 154 011 01596 0000000000
2037. 1821N 07450W 01525 0041 061 012 170 152 013 01599 0000000000
2038 1822N 07451W 01524 0041 071 013 170 148 013 01598 0000000000
2038. 1823N 07452W 01524 0041 072 012 174 150 013 01599 0000000000
2039 1824N 07453W 01524 0042 069 013 176 148 014 01599 0000000000
;
SXXX50 KNHC 272039
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 37 KNHC
2029. 1801N 07430W 01524 0026 072 023 164 164 023 01582 0000000000
2030 1803N 07431W 01523 0026 065 025 160 160 026 01582 0000000000
2030. 1804N 07433W 01526 0027 066 028 162 162 028 01586 0000000000
2031 1805N 07434W 01522 0028 069 027 164 164 028 01583 0000000000
2031. 1806N 07435W 01526 0030 071 028 164 164 028 01589 0000000000
2032 1808N 07436W 01523 0031 070 027 160 160 027 01587 0000000000
2032. 1809N 07438W 01523 0033 062 027 160 160 028 01589 0000000000
2033 1810N 07439W 01525 0034 059 024 160 160 025 01592 0000000000
2033. 1811N 07440W 01524 0036 056 022 160 160 024 01593 0000000000
2034 1812N 07441W 01523 0036 050 019 164 158 020 01592 0000000000
2034. 1814N 07443W 01524 0037 037 016 166 156 017 01594 0000000000
2035 1815N 07444W 01525 0038 035 010 170 154 012 01595 0000000000
2035. 1816N 07445W 01523 0039 024 010 174 152 012 01594 0000000000
2036 1817N 07446W 01525 0039 023 010 172 152 011 01597 0000000000
2036. 1818N 07447W 01524 0040 031 010 168 154 011 01596 0000000000
2037 1819N 07449W 01524 0040 044 011 170 154 011 01596 0000000000
2037. 1821N 07450W 01525 0041 061 012 170 152 013 01599 0000000000
2038 1822N 07451W 01524 0041 071 013 170 148 013 01598 0000000000
2038. 1823N 07452W 01524 0041 072 012 174 150 013 01599 0000000000
2039 1824N 07453W 01524 0042 069 013 176 148 014 01599 0000000000
;
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- Category 2
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dropsonde #2 from NOAA9
458
UZNT13 KWBC 272033
XXAA 77202 99162 70743 04464 99009 27849 26004 00080 27044 25005
92765 21422 30012 85496 17411 25511 70139 11257 23516 50587 04559
25514 40759 15947 27013 30969 31150 26517 25096 40147 34514 20244
52162 13009 88999 77999
31313 09608 82013
51515 10190 15424
61616 NOAA9 0805A ERNESTO OB 02
62626 SPL 1621N07422W 2028 MBL WND 26006 AEV 20604 DLM WND 25009
009160 WL150 25505 075 =
XXBB 77208 99162 70743 04464 00009 27849 11850 17411 22730 11415
33712 11457 44692 10858 55657 07856 66582 02261 77533 02535 88518
03359 99475 06761 11467 07960 22460 08965 33444 11162 44434 12356
55404 15548 66380 19122 77323 27530 88308 29956 99261 37942 11218
46958 22200 52362
21212 00009 26004 11953 28006 22914 30513 33900 28010 44868 25009
55850 25511 66820 21510 77795 22510 88776 20514 99757 24012 11726
21515 22710 21517 33697 24016 44666 21520 55628 24017 66572 22015
77557 23514 88545 21510 99503 25514 11490 23513 22470 25015 33429
24517 44394 28512 55370 27515 66361 29512 77315 28019 88290 26015
99270 31015 11247 35013 22240 35010 33236 00513 44224 02010 55210
08006 66190 13510 77174 11010 88170 09010 99160 06507
31313 09608 82013
51515 10190 15424
61616 NOAA9 0805A ERNESTO OB 02
62626 SPL 1621N07422W 2028 MBL WND 26006 AEV 20604 DLM WND 25009
009160 WL150 25505 075 =
458
UZNT13 KWBC 272033
XXAA 77202 99162 70743 04464 99009 27849 26004 00080 27044 25005
92765 21422 30012 85496 17411 25511 70139 11257 23516 50587 04559
25514 40759 15947 27013 30969 31150 26517 25096 40147 34514 20244
52162 13009 88999 77999
31313 09608 82013
51515 10190 15424
61616 NOAA9 0805A ERNESTO OB 02
62626 SPL 1621N07422W 2028 MBL WND 26006 AEV 20604 DLM WND 25009
009160 WL150 25505 075 =
XXBB 77208 99162 70743 04464 00009 27849 11850 17411 22730 11415
33712 11457 44692 10858 55657 07856 66582 02261 77533 02535 88518
03359 99475 06761 11467 07960 22460 08965 33444 11162 44434 12356
55404 15548 66380 19122 77323 27530 88308 29956 99261 37942 11218
46958 22200 52362
21212 00009 26004 11953 28006 22914 30513 33900 28010 44868 25009
55850 25511 66820 21510 77795 22510 88776 20514 99757 24012 11726
21515 22710 21517 33697 24016 44666 21520 55628 24017 66572 22015
77557 23514 88545 21510 99503 25514 11490 23513 22470 25015 33429
24517 44394 28512 55370 27515 66361 29512 77315 28019 88290 26015
99270 31015 11247 35013 22240 35010 33236 00513 44224 02010 55210
08006 66190 13510 77174 11010 88170 09010 99160 06507
31313 09608 82013
51515 10190 15424
61616 NOAA9 0805A ERNESTO OB 02
62626 SPL 1621N07422W 2028 MBL WND 26006 AEV 20604 DLM WND 25009
009160 WL150 25505 075 =
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I agree.It has been slamming Haiti all day,this is not a fish.gilbert88 wrote:ConvergenceZone wrote:it would be something if this turns out to be a fish storm after all of this..I mean with the eastward trending models, the cone will be in the Atlantic soon..
If it strikes ANY island it won't be a fish storm... anyone would assume a "Category 3" poster would know that.
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