Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

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robbielyn
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#1921 Postby robbielyn » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:27 pm

jenmrk wrote:I know that no one can answer where this thing is going right now, it is driving me nuts, I have very little knowledge of how the weather actually brings a storm to where it ends up, I am wondering at what point do they usually pinpoint a forecast that has less variables. I remember with Katrina we thought that we were a target close to 2 days out. I really can't imagine going through this flip/flopping all week ( but I that is a reality I am sure of).I feel like my head is about to explode. I am in Pensacola with a husband that sees South Fl so he thinks we are ok, am I correct in assuming that I need to pay attention to that GFDL model regardless of what others might say. I hope this is ok to post in this forum.
Tomorrow we should know alot better, it has to clear cuba before they can say for sure. the models aren't all over the map so with each passing day it comes together. It will become more clear tomorrow. But continue keeping yourself updated as that is the responsible thing to do. Yes it is very frustrating, helps us appreciate we are infintisimal in comparison to the weather. It tells us we must be patient until it decides what it wants to do. What choice do we have? :D
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#1922 Postby HollynLA » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:28 pm

Maybe I was looking at it wrong or was the forecast points shifted with the last advisory? Anyhow, all areas of Florida should be prepared at this time for anything. I can already hear what's left of the insurance companies slamming their doors and hauling butt to Wisconsin.
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#1923 Postby craptacular » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:28 pm

Thunder, your last plane says 2019 instead of 2109 or 2119.
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#1924 Postby robbielyn » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:29 pm

HollynLA wrote:Maybe I was looking at it wrong or was the forecast points shifted with the last advisory? Anyhow, all areas of Florida should be prepared at this time for anything. I can already hear what's left of the insurance companies slamming their doors and hauling butt to Wisconsin.
NHC takes it to fort meyers.
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#1925 Postby craptacular » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:32 pm

dropsondes from AF309 and NOAA9

695
UZNT13 KNHC 272126
XXAA 77213 99208 70822 08102 99011 29256 05014 00101 28450 05014
92790 23244 08015 85524 18856 08015 70165 10068 08511 50588 05972
07015 40760 16566 11013 30970 31557 17524 88999 77999
31313 09608 82104
61616 AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 05
62626 SPL 2084N08222W 2115 MBL WND 05515 AEV 20604 DLM WND 09014
011307 WL150 05014 082 =
XXBB 77218 99208 70822 08102 00011 29256 11949 24025 22850 18856
33766 13857 44730 12470 55651 06465 66585 02476 77531 02766 88469
07781 99451 09577 11435 11762 22372 19168 33299 31757
21212 00011 05014 11925 08015 22850 08015 33773 09512 44711 07512
55697 09012 66628 08518 77606 07018 88485 07511 99469 09517 11438
08521 22352 13016 33332 16522 44317 16022 55299 17524
31313 09608 82104
61616 AF309 0705A ERNESTO OB 05
62626 SPL 2084N08222W 2115 MBL WND 05515 AEV 20604 DLM WND 09014
011307 WL150 05014 082 =
;


275
UZNT13 KWBC 272122
XXAA 77211 99175 70701 04470 99012 28650 11519 00102 27845 12019
92789 22229 13522 85522 18856 14019 70163 09639 18023 50588 04961
17527 40760 16559 16531 30970 29737 21516 25097 40341 26004 20246
525// 31017 15425 663// 34515 88999 77999
31313 09608 82047
61616 NOAA9 0805A ERNESTO OB 04
62626 SPL 1760N07008W 2102 MBL WND 12019 AEV 20604 DLM WND 17515
011157 WL150 12019 082 =
XXBB 77218 99175 70701 04470 00012 28650 11936 22623 22897 21457
33880 19828 44850 18856 55802 15234 66749 12858 77715 10225 88608
02418 99555 01533 11548 01757 22513 04556 33497 05161 44432 12557
55417 14159 66373 21733 77362 20930 88349 22331 99298 29937 11264
36939 22211 49558 33204 51558
21212 00012 11519 11961 12518 22914 13523 33850 14019 44627 19524
55479 17025 66460 18531 77432 17537 88369 15531 99362 18026 11347
18028 22337 20526 33323 18519 44296 22013 55257 17501 66232 27510
77204 31016 88189 29522 99157 29513
31313 09608 82047
61616 NOAA9 0805A ERNESTO OB 04
62626 SPL 1760N07008W 2102 MBL WND 12019 AEV 20604 DLM WND 17515
011157 WL150 12019 082 =
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#1926 Postby fci » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:34 pm

I think you have covered most of the scenarios.
Still don't think that 1-3 will happen as I just don't see if going into the GOM.
I'm in the minority on this one but don't see the NW then WNW then N motion.
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#1927 Postby Damar91 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:34 pm

After looking at the sat. images, I think Ernie for the first time is starting to truly look like a hurricane.
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#1928 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:35 pm

when does teh atmosphere get sampled aroudn adn in from tof Ernesto? Is that flight tonite or not until tomorrow? I think we really need that data to input in the models to get a much clearere picture on our upcoming week.
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#1929 Postby craptacular » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:35 pm

260
SXXX50 KNHC 272129
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 42 KNHC
2119. 1726N 07541W 01524 0048 320 016 162 152 017 01604 0000000000
2120 1725N 07541W 01523 0048 321 017 162 156 018 01604 0000000000
2120. 1723N 07541W 01525 0048 317 018 162 150 018 01606 0000000000
2121 1721N 07542W 01523 0049 316 016 162 154 017 01604 0000000000
2121. 1720N 07542W 01525 0049 317 016 162 154 016 01607 0000000000
2122 1718N 07543W 01524 0049 321 015 164 156 015 01606 0000000000
2122. 1716N 07543W 01524 0049 321 016 162 154 017 01606 0000000000
2123 1715N 07543W 01524 0050 318 017 160 156 018 01607 0000000000
2123. 1713N 07544W 01524 0050 319 014 160 146 015 01607 0000000000
2124 1711N 07544W 01524 0049 318 014 160 146 014 01606 0000000000
2124. 1709N 07544W 01524 0049 323 016 164 146 016 01606 0000000000
2125 1708N 07544W 01524 0050 327 017 166 142 017 01607 0000000000
2125. 1706N 07544W 01524 0049 324 017 166 150 018 01606 0000000000
2126 1704N 07544W 01524 0049 328 017 168 144 018 01606 0000000000
2126. 1702N 07544W 01525 0050 328 018 168 142 018 01607 0000000000
2127 1701N 07544W 01523 0050 329 016 170 130 017 01606 0000000000
2127. 1659N 07544W 01525 0049 322 012 164 138 013 01607 0000000000
2128 1657N 07545W 01524 0050 320 011 160 138 011 01607 0000000000
2128. 1655N 07545W 01523 0050 309 012 160 142 012 01606 0000000000
2129 1654N 07545W 01525 0050 320 012 162 138 013 01608 0000000000
;
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#1930 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:35 pm

Image
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#1931 Postby Thunder44 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:39 pm

Image
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#1932 Postby Andrew92 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:41 pm

robbielyn wrote:Shear didn't weaken ernie, interaction with land did.


I know land interaction did, but Derek had earlier said that there was some mid-level shear that contributed to the weakening of Ernesto. However, the shear appears to have abated, as well as land interaction ceasing for now. I hold to my possible Category 2 in Cuba.

-Andrew92
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#1933 Postby rolltide » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:41 pm

I looks to me like the outflow on the west and SW side has really improved over the last several hours.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis-l.jpg
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#1934 Postby craptacular » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:42 pm

dropsonde #5 from NOAA9

776
UZNT13 KWBC 272132
XXAA 77212 99182 70680 04388 99013 28644 10512 00114 27637 11012
92801 22029 12516 85532 17233 12018 70170 09648 13009 50589 06345
15514 40760 16364 17515 30970 29538 22006 25098 39944 27003 20246
52959 30017 88999 77999
31313 09608 82103
51515 10190 15425
61616 NOAA9 0805A ERNESTO OB 05
62626 SPL 1823N06806W 2118 MBL WND 11512 AEV 20604 DLM WND 14507
012170 WL150 11013 080 =
XXBB 77218 99182 70680 04388 00013 28644 11947 23216 22916 21842
33850 17233 44825 15835 55802 14659 66798 14456 77795 14456 88785
14867 99749 13876 11740 13071 22729 12056 33673 08456 44621 04449
55613 03857 66596 01833 77571 00257 88499 06345 99491 06959 11428
12960 22364 21768 33350 24357 44341 24742 55297 29939 66231 44549
77198 53560
21212 00013 10512 11949 12513 22850 12018 33793 13017 44721 11012
55638 15507 66553 16511 77510 15014 88481 17015 99444 16014 11437
17015 22401 17515 33375 16019 44352 17023 55335 14025 66324 15025
77308 16513 88302 20507 99254 23002 11234 31010 22222 28514 33211
31015
31313 09608 82103
51515 10190 15425
61616 NOAA9 0805A ERNESTO OB 05
62626 SPL 1823N06806W 2118 MBL WND 11512 AEV 20604 DLM WND 14507
012170 WL150 11013 080 =
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#1935 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:42 pm

Sorry for all the typos in that last post. I haven't gotten much sleep in the last 48 hrs.

guess why? :eek:
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#1936 Postby "Ice" » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:42 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Scenario 1 - Worst-case scenario that one rogue model suggests. Pushes due west, brushing the southernmost lands of Cuba while mostly over water, allowing Ernesto to hold or strengthen. Then it moves into the open Gulf - likely as a Category 2 hurricane - and the Loop Current blows it up to a Category 4 or 5. Then it makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle most likely as Category 3.
Oh Lord, I hope and pray that this is not the chosen one...
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Ernesto and his future

#1937 Postby Tommedic » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:43 pm

I am reading many posts that seem to hint at or bring out the insecurities felt by many after last year. I would like to share the following:

Many of us have decided to live in areas that are prone to have hurricanes or tropical systems. As residents, we have a RESPONSIBILITY to always be prepared. That includes short and long term preparations. We should already have plans for evacuations if needed. We should have supplies for (I believe 7 days) in case we cannot leave or in the case of any other eventuality. We need to have several gallons of water per day per person, increase if needed for medical reasons. Remember that many times the heat indexes afterward will be high. Generators are a plus. If living in a mobile home, DON'T STAY. Have 14 - 28 days of medications with you plus written prescriptions in the event you are evacuated and must be away from your doctor for extended periods. Have a written copy or electronic copy of all important documents, especially insurance and proof of ownership papers. Always have a point of contact that you can use that is outside the warning area in order that friends and family know that you are fine. Use it. This is not a complete list but a beginning.

During Hurricane season keep informed. Use a weather radio to keep up to date during a storm. Always have a portable radio as well as plenty of batteries.

If we are prepared, it is easier to be calm and more relaxed during the stressful times that come. Preparation is one of the most if not the most important thing we all can do. Oh yeah!! MONEY... There will probably be a period of time that bank accounts cannot be accessed. Have some cash with you before a storm hits. A check card does NO good if you can't use it.

Just some thoughts that maybe will help us NOT be all worried, even if a storm hits our area.

Tom
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#1938 Postby craptacular » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:43 pm

447
URNT11 KNHC 272135
97779 21334 10167 75700 15300 99005 17148 /2505
RMK AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 18
;

most likely turning back NE towards center now
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#1939 Postby Opal storm » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:45 pm

"Ice" wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Scenario 1 - Worst-case scenario that one rogue model suggests. Pushes due west, brushing the southernmost lands of Cuba while mostly over water, allowing Ernesto to hold or strengthen. Then it moves into the open Gulf - likely as a Category 2 hurricane - and the Loop Current blows it up to a Category 4 or 5. Then it makes landfall in the Florida Panhandle most likely as Category 3.
Oh Lord, I hope and pray that this is not the chosen one...
It's probably the most unlikely scenerio right now since only one model really supports it.
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#1940 Postby Stratosphere747 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 4:45 pm

The convection is shrinking, and the overall structure of the storm will not improve until the circulation fully clears Haiti.
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