Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[ConvergenceZone]

wow, it is pretty amazing how the hype has died down with this one, much fewer posts on this now in the forum...... I'm in a "believe it when I see it"mode as far it getting it's act together again.....


September is going to be hella active though with all the waves coming off Africa. This is going to be one crazy ride!!!

[Dean4Storms]

Jeff Masters explains here why you guys that are transfixed on the convection on the peninsula of Haiti are wrong in assuming that it is the LLC, the storm is tilted toward the NE, but the actual LLC is around 25 miles or so SW of that center of convection over open water right NOW. Recon found it tilted!


Ernesto is has been clobbering Hispanolia all morning with tropical storm force winds and torrential rains. But now, the island has bitten back. Ernesto is struggling to hold his eye together, thanks to the mountainous terrain on the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. The 1:10pm and 3pm EDT Hurricane Hunter eye reports found a surface pressure estimated at 1007 mb, a big increase from this morning's 995 mb. Moreover, the eye was substantially tilted, with the calm at the surface about 25 miles south of the calm at the 10,000 foot flight level. The plane could find maximum winds of only 35 mph during that 2-hour period, so Ernesto will probably be downgraded to a tropical storm with the 5pm advisory. The center of the storm is just south of some very mountainous terrain, and this is significantly disrupting Ernesto. The upper level outflow still looks strong, wind shear is weak, and an upper-level anticyclone (clockwise-rotating region of winds) is still in place, so Ernesto will no doubt reorganize tonight once he moves away from Haiti. However, given Ernesto's small size and the difficultly he is having with Hispanolia, there is hope that the expected 1-2 day traverse of Cuba will significantly weaken him. It may take Ernesto a day or two to regain hurricane strength once he emerges into the Florida Straits. This bodes well for the Florida Keys, which may dodge another hurricane. I think that only if Ernesto makes landfall north of Tampa will he have time to organize into a major hurricane.

[Scorpion]

Whens the next vortex message?

[craptacular]

Whens the next vortex message?

Should be soon ... the last set of minobs is late, but they're approaching the previous vortex.

[craptacular]

258
SXXX50 KNHC 272159
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 45 KNHC
2149. 1721N 07505W 01525 0042 298 018 166 134 019 01599 0000000000
2150 1723N 07503W 01524 0042 301 019 166 134 019 01599 0000000000
2150. 1724N 07502W 01524 0041 300 019 166 136 019 01598 0000000000
2151 1725N 07501W 01524 0041 300 020 166 138 020 01597 0000000000
2151. 1726N 07500W 01524 0041 298 020 164 142 021 01598 0000000000
2152 1728N 07458W 01524 0041 298 020 164 144 021 01598 0000000000
2152. 1729N 07457W 01525 0041 300 018 162 142 020 01599 0000000000
2153 1730N 07456W 01523 0041 310 015 162 140 016 01597 0000000000
2153. 1731N 07455W 01525 0041 305 015 164 140 015 01598 0000000000
2154 1732N 07453W 01524 0041 299 015 166 140 015 01598 0000000000
2154. 1734N 07452W 01524 0041 303 017 166 140 018 01598 0000000000
2155 1735N 07451W 01525 0041 301 018 166 140 018 01599 0000000000
2155. 1736N 07450W 01524 0041 298 018 170 138 019 01597 0000000000
2156 1737N 07449W 01524 0041 301 017 166 144 018 01598 0000000000
2156. 1739N 07448W 01524 0040 314 015 164 154 016 01597 0000000000
2157 1740N 07447W 01525 0039 316 014 160 160 015 01597 0000000000
2157. 1741N 07446W 01524 0039 302 013 160 160 014 01596 0000000000
2158 1743N 07445W 01524 0038 294 014 160 160 014 01595 0000000000
2158. 1744N 07444W 01523 0037 278 013 164 162 013 01592 0000000000
2159 1746N 07443W 01525 0037 271 014 168 160 014 01594 0000000000
;

[Dean4Storms]

It looks now to be re-aligning itself just off the SW tip of the haitian peninsula. Expect rapid deepening tonight!

[rnbaida]

how long will the recon stay in the storm?

[Thunder44]

[rnbaida]

It looks now to be re-aligning itself just off the SW tip of the haitian peninsula. Expect rapid deepening tonight!

i doubt it, i think it will stay a TS as it goes into cuba and then weaken further to 45-50mph and then hit south FL as a Strong TS weak Cat 1...

[Droop12]

Dean, the outflow on almost all quads of the storm looks awesome. I was thinking once this gets over open water tonight and theres a convective burst near or over the center, some pretty rapid intensification could happen.

[Stormavoider]

Get a good look before dark.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=18&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&palette=ir.pal

[craptacular]

how long will the recon stay in the storm?

They are probably done after this pass.

[rnbaida]

will we get a new vortex?

[Dean4Storms]

Dean, the outflow on almost all quads of the storm looks awesome. I was thinking once this gets over open water tonight and theres a convective burst near or over the center, some pretty rapid intensification could happen.

I expect it to begin deepeing tonight as it puts distance between itslef and those mountains, it looks like in recent sat. imagery to already be occuring, throw in some of the deepest warm ocean heat content found anywhere between Cuba and Haiti and BOOM!

[AL Chili Pepper]

I was just about to post something like that Dean4Storms. The recon fixes never showed the LLC crossing the Haiti coast, while the visible satellite clearly showed the upper rotation there. The appearance of a westward jog may just be the storm center realigning itself as the shear from the SW lessens. Also, the latest recon shows the center top dead center of the NHC track.

[SouthFLTropics]

Three things that are obviously going to be key here: 1.) how strong is E before he interacts with Cuba, 2.) How long does he spend in Cuba, 3.) Where does he exit the North coast of Cuba. I believe those three things will be a major factor as to where he ends up and how strong he will be when he gets there. Just my two cents.

SouthFLTropics

[HurricaneHunter914]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

The red area continues to enlarge. We might see an increase to 65-70 mph winds tonight at 11, maybe back to minimal hurricane strength if lucky.

[pcwick]

Sea Surface Temps
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8gosst.png
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/phod/dataphod1 ... 8casst.png

[craptacular]

will we get a new vortex?

If they find one. The last set of minobs put them very close to previous vortex, and I'm waiting for the next set and a possible VDM.

[Dean4Storms]

Get a good look before dark.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=18&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=2800&height=2000&type=Animation&numframes=8&palette=ir.pal

Yep, you can plainly see in that loop that the deepest convection and MLC is shifting SW back over the LLC where RECON said it was located. Look for the deep reds tonight on IR.