Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[craptacular]

297
SXXX50 KNHC 272209
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 46 KNHC
2159. 1747N 07443W 01524 0036 275 011 170 162 012 01593 0000000000
2200 1749N 07443W 01522 0036 298 010 168 164 011 01590 0000000000
2200. 1751N 07442W 01528 0036 291 010 174 160 012 01597 0000000000
2201 1752N 07442W 01522 0037 324 009 172 162 011 01591 0000000000
2201. 1753N 07441W 01525 0035 321 014 170 160 015 01593 0000000000
2202 1754N 07439W 01525 0034 317 017 170 156 018 01592 0000000000
2202. 1755N 07438W 01525 0035 318 019 168 156 019 01592 0000000000
2203 1756N 07436W 01523 0033 324 018 166 158 019 01589 0000000000
2203. 1757N 07435W 01525 0032 314 020 166 156 022 01590 0000000000
2204 1758N 07433W 01524 0031 314 020 166 158 022 01588 0000000000
2204. 1759N 07432W 01522 0030 326 011 172 172 014 01586 0000000000
2205 1800N 07431W 01525 0030 011 007 170 170 008 01587 0000000000
2205. 1801N 07430W 01524 0028 021 009 176 176 009 01585 0000000000
2206 1802N 07428W 01523 0027 020 010 184 180 012 01583 0000000000
2206. 1802N 07426W 01527 0024 317 009 186 180 011 01584 0000000000
2207 1802N 07425W 01522 0022 300 013 184 182 015 01577 0000000000
2207. 1801N 07423W 01523 0020 268 017 190 176 019 01576 0000000000
2208 1801N 07421W 01528 0020 251 019 184 178 021 01580 0000000000
2208. 1802N 07419W 01520 0019 240 021 188 176 022 01571 0000000000
2209 1802N 07417W 01526 0020 231 019 190 180 020 01578 0000000000
;

[Stormavoider]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

The red area continues to enlarge. We might see an increase to 65-70 mph winds tonight at 11, maybe back to minimal hurricane strength if lucky.

If Who is lucky

[marcane_1973]

Rapid intensification This will be lucky to be a strong TS or 75 mph Hurricane when it hits Florida. This storm will be no different than a monster summer severe thunderstorm.

[HurricaneHunter914]

If Who is lucky

If Ernesto is lucky.

[Thunder44]

[Wx_Warrior]

LOL.....I hope you're right!

[Dean4Storms]

Rapid intensification This will be lucky to be a strong TS or 75 mph Hurricane when it hits Florida. This storm will be no different than a monster summer severe thunderstorm.

I hope you are right, but Ernesto will have over a full day in the Florida Straits or SE Gulf at least. I remeber a little lady at the time named Opal who deepened into a Cat. 4 overnight in 96.

[SouthFLTropics]

I really do hope you are right Marcane. But with the upper air environment ripe for intensificaton and the water temps being what they are I would not be so quick to rule out a rapid intensification phase when he pops out on the North side of Cuba. For the record...I hope your right and I'm wrong!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

anyone remember how much strength Charley lost over Cuba and then how much he gained in a VERY SHORT time?! -and he was traveling very fast over those warm waters. Thsi storm will be walking compared to the running pace Charley kept.

[cheezyWXguy]

Rapid intensification This will be lucky to be a strong TS or 75 mph Hurricane when it hits Florida. This storm will be no different than a monster summer severe thunderstorm.

I hope you are right, but Ernesto will have over a full day in the Florida Straits or SE Gulf at least. I remeber a little lady at the time named Opal who deepened into a Cat. 4 overnight in 96.

I remember a little man named Dennis how strengthened up from a 80mph hurricane off cuba one night and by that time the next nigt was a cat 3 of 125mph last year

[craptacular]

943
URNT12 KNHC 272217
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/22:07:00Z
B. 18 deg 02 min N
074 deg 23 min W
C. 850 mb 1473 m
D. 15 kt
E. 229 deg 030 nm
F. 314 deg 022 kt
G. 250 deg 011 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 17 C/ 1522 m
J. 19 C/ 1529 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 19
MAX FL WIND 33 KT E QUAD 20:00:40 Z
;

It moved 22 min N, 17 min W since the previous vortex.

[CrazyC83]

Here is what each of the five scenarios I drew up look like on a map:

[rnbaida]

did the pressure go down?

[marcane_1973]

I just do not see how this storm is going to hold together being on the worst part of Cuba for a long period of time if it follows the NHC forecast.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Charley actually strengthened right on the coast. For some reason the west coast of Florida doesn't have as much effect on TC's like the Northern Gulf coast does.

[craptacular]

did the pressure go down?

1004mb ... same as previous.

[Jevo]

Down 3MB from last time recon was out there

URNT12 KNHC 272217
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/22:07:00Z
B. 18 deg 02 min N
074 deg 23 min W
C. 850 mb 1473 m
D. 15 kt
E. 229 deg 030 nm
F. 314 deg 022 kt
G. 250 deg 011 nm
H. 1004 mb
I. 17 C/ 1522 m
J. 19 C/ 1529 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1 345/ 8
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 19
MAX FL WIND 33 KT E QUAD 20:00:40 Z

[Stratosphere747]

I don't think Ernesto will be coming into Cuba as a 110 cane, so comparsions to Charley are a bit extreme..

[Opal storm]

Scenerio 3 (or something close to that) will most likely verify IMO.

(in response to CrazyC83's post)

[CrazyC83]

Rapid intensification This will be lucky to be a strong TS or 75 mph Hurricane when it hits Florida. This storm will be no different than a monster summer severe thunderstorm.

I hope you are right, but Ernesto will have over a full day in the Florida Straits or SE Gulf at least. I remeber a little lady at the time named Opal who deepened into a Cat. 4 overnight in 96.

Opal's explosion was in the Loop Current.