Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[N2FSU]

Interesting discussion from the Tallahassee NWS:

.LONG TERM...
(THURSDAY-SUNDAY) THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE ERNESTO. THE BULK OF
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED THE TRACK MUCH FARTHER EAST THE
PAST FEW RUNS...WITH A CONSENSUS TRACK NEAR OR ALONG THE WEST
COAST OF FLORIDA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. IF THIS TREND
CONTINUES...THE THREAT TO OUR FORECAST AREA WOULD BE MINIMAL.
HOWEVER...IT IS DANGEROUS TO DISMISS THE THREAT TO OUR AREA SO FAR
OUT IN TIME. LAST YEAR (AROUND THIS TIME WHEN KATRINA WAS STILL
EAST OF FL) THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS FORECASTING KATRINA TO MAKE
ITS SECOND LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST GULF COAST...WHEN IT
ACTUALLY ENDED UP MAKING LANDFALL IN MS. (THE MODELS DID EVENTUALLY
LOCK ONTO THE CORRECT SOLUTION WITHIN ABOUT 72 HOURS OF LANDFALL).
SIMILAR CASES (IVAN...DENNIS...ETC.) HAVE SHOWN THAT THE MODELS
CAN FLIP FLOP A BIT IN THEIR LONG RANGE FORECASTS WHEN HANDLING
COMPLEX WEATHER PATTERNS LIKE RECURVATURE. THE BOTTOM LINE FOR OUR
AREA IS THAT IT LOOKS BETTER THAN IT DID 24 HOURS AGO (IF YOU
DON`T WANT HIGH WINDS AND HEAVY RAIN)...BUT WE ARE NOT OFF THE
HOOK YET AND PROBABLY WON`T BE UNTIL ERNESTO FINALLY MAKES THE
TURN SOME TIME ON TUESDAY.

[dixiebreeze]

wxman57, looks like it is trending a little more W or WNW now. Is that correct do you think? Thank you.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

[pcwick]

I'm not understanding why Cuba is thought to be such a cyclone killer. Here are some longer storm intereactions with Cuba:

Frederic 1979
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

Frederic spent several days over Cuba in which he became a Tropical Depression, passed to the south of Cuba where he began to regain strength, crossed Cuba again, then exploded to CAT4.

Georges 1998
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

Elena 1985 (appears to have gained strength while over Cuba)
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

Kate 1985
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.dat

[craptacular]

000
URNT11 KNHC 272247
97779 22364 10180 72700 15300 17032 16169 /2517
RMK AF302 0605A ERNESTO OB 21
;

[brunota2003]

interesting to note that the flight level center seems to be alot closer to the surface center...well looking at Thunder44's graphic and if the NHC's center was correct that is...looks like it is trying to get its act back together...

[craptacular]

080
SXXX50 KNHC 272249
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 50 KNHC
2239. 1753N 07243W 01526 0064 178 031 156 156 032 01623 0000000000
2240 1752N 07243W 01528 0064 177 029 156 156 032 01624 0000000000
2240. 1750N 07243W 01521 0063 176 031 158 158 033 01617 0000000000
2241 1749N 07244W 01526 0061 174 033 154 154 035 01620 0000000000
2241. 1748N 07244W 01524 0063 163 029 154 154 031 01620 0000000000
2242 1746N 07245W 01524 0061 164 024 156 156 029 01618 0000000000
2242. 1745N 07245W 01517 0060 171 026 158 158 028 01611 0000000000
2243 1744N 07245W 01526 0061 177 026 152 152 028 01620 0000000000
2243. 1742N 07245W 01524 0064 188 026 162 162 028 01620 0000000000
2244 1741N 07246W 01527 0062 192 024 164 164 026 01622 0000000000
2244. 1741N 07247W 01523 0060 190 027 162 162 027 01616 0000000000
2245 1740N 07249W 01525 0062 190 030 162 162 032 01620 0000000000
2245. 1740N 07250W 01524 0064 183 025 164 164 026 01620 0000000000
2246 1739N 07252W 01524 0063 180 025 164 162 026 01620 0000000000
2246. 1738N 07253W 01523 0062 180 027 164 160 027 01619 0000000000
2247 1737N 07254W 01525 0063 179 028 166 162 028 01620 0000000000
2247. 1736N 07255W 01523 0062 177 026 164 164 026 01618 0000000000
2248 1734N 07255W 01525 0062 182 027 162 162 029 01620 0000000000
2248. 1733N 07256W 01524 0063 186 026 164 164 026 01620 0000000000
2249 1732N 07256W 01524 0061 185 025 164 164 026 01619 0000000000
;

[craptacular]

Looks like they are heading south for another SE - NW pass. Can anyone take over posting the obs please?

[Thunder44]

[miamicanes177]

thunder is the VDM the red cross or the dot beside it?

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

I'm way to unconfident right now to make a forecast. I keep thinking lots of different things.

IMO, today was a very crucial day for Ernesto. And Monday will be too.

[miamicanes177]

Just a reminder that the chances of this hitting where the NHC says it will this far in advance is VERY small. Pinpointing a location 4 days in advance is impossible in my opinion. We're having a hard time figuring out where it will be 12 hours from now...much less 96 hours. So everyone expecting this to hit in the middle of florida will likely be in for a major shock. I expect we'll have a HUGE track shift to be in line with the GFDL. The panhandle or perhaps alabama could be under the gun.

[Thunder44]

889
SXXX50 KNHC 272259
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 51 KNHC
2249. 1730N 07257W 01522 0062 184 028 152 152 028 01617 0000000000
2250 1729N 07257W 01525 0062 189 028 166 166 029 01620 0000000000
2250. 1727N 07257W 01525 0063 190 027 166 166 028 01620 0000000000
2251 1726N 07257W 01525 0063 188 025 164 164 025 01621 0000000000
2251. 1725N 07258W 01523 0063 190 023 164 164 024 01618 0000000000
2252 1723N 07258W 01525 0063 191 024 166 166 024 01620 0000000000
2252. 1722N 07258W 01523 0063 191 023 166 166 023 01619 0000000000
2253 1720N 07258W 01527 0063 189 023 166 164 024 01623 0000000000
2253. 1719N 07258W 01529 0064 188 024 166 158 025 01626 0000000000
2254 1717N 07259W 01525 0064 189 025 164 164 026 01622 0000000000
2254. 1716N 07259W 01524 0064 192 024 160 160 024 01620 0000000000
2255 1714N 07259W 01525 0064 192 024 160 160 025 01622 0000000000
2255. 1712N 07259W 01527 0065 197 023 162 162 024 01624 0000000000
2256 1711N 07300W 01523 0065 191 023 166 154 023 01622 0000000000
2256. 1709N 07300W 01526 0065 188 023 166 154 024 01624 0000000000
2257 1707N 07300W 01526 0066 194 021 164 156 021 01625 0000000000
2257. 1705N 07300W 01524 0067 192 023 166 148 024 01623 0000000000
2258 1703N 07301W 01524 0067 198 023 162 160 024 01624 0000000000
2258. 1702N 07301W 01525 0067 196 022 162 154 022 01625 0000000000
2259 1700N 07301W 01524 0068 195 022 162 156 022 01624 0000000000
;






The VDM is the red cross.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Of course, we're going to see significan shifts again tomorrow.

Although, I must say, with every forecast update the track has been shifting further eastward. Tampa and southward looks MOSt likely at this point, IMO.

I wouldn't be totally shocked to see it trend westward to the Panhandle though.

[rnbaida]

when does the new GFDL come out?? Come someone please post it the minut it comes out? Can someone please give me a link?

[ronjon]

The storm has tremendous outflow (feathering) and seems to be reorganizing SW of the tip of Haiti. At least 12 hrs over some high oceanic heat content water. I believe the track will be more W-NW from here on in as the ULL to the north is weakening and the ridge is reestablishing itself. I suspect the GFDL solution will ultimately prevail - the trough forecast is not as strong as with Charlie so no radical turns to the NE - just a more gradual north than N-NE turn.

[Opal storm]

The track may be pushed a bit back west but I don't see AL or the Panhandle being in the center of the cone.The trend has been eastward,not westward.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Just a reminder that the chances of this hitting where the NHC says it will this far in advance is VERY small. Pinpointing a location 4 days in advance is impossible in my opinion. We're having a hard time figuring out where it will be 12 hours from now...much less 96 hours. So everyone expecting this to hit in the middle of florida will likely be in for a major shock. I expect we'll have a HUGE track shift to be in line with the GFDL. The panhandle or perhaps alabama could be under the gun.

The next GFDL run will be interesting, along with the next model runs with the NOAA high altitude data. I sure hope they get that in tonight.

[whereverwx]

The next few days will be interesting... we should know where Ernesto will be going by then; way too early to make landfall predictions.

[JtSmarts]

Deep convection appearing around the center again per TWC.

[jhamps10]

since when was it wrong to put a forecast in the main thread? Not complaing here, but just wondering.