Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[canetracker]

Looks like the recon vortex data is well south of the nhc projection point.

[saints63213]

Current Intensity Analysis

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT - Version 7.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 27 AUG 2006 Time : 224500 UTC
Lat : 18:12:25 N Lon : 74:40:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 991.6mb/ 61.0kt


6hr-Avg T# 3hr-Avg T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.2 3.1 3.1 3.0

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.8mb

Center Temp : -67.1C Cloud Region Temp : -49.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

************************************************** **

[ConvergenceZone]

Looks like Ernesto is back in business. My call for it dead was extremely poor.

Don't beat yourself up Scorp. We've all made some bad calls with this storm(me included). It's just one of those storms. Come back in an hour and it will probably be doing something else unexpected again, lol..

[Thunder44]

847
SXXX50 KNHC 272319
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 53 KNHC
2309. 1713N 07326W 01523 0058 191 022 170 158 023 01614 0000000000
2310 1714N 07327W 01524 0057 192 021 166 160 022 01615 0000000000
2310. 1715N 07328W 01525 0057 190 021 166 160 022 01614 0000000000
2311 1717N 07330W 01524 0056 190 022 166 160 023 01613 0000000000
2311. 1718N 07331W 01523 0054 191 023 166 160 023 01611 0000000000
2312 1719N 07332W 01525 0055 191 022 160 160 023 01612 0000000000
2312. 1720N 07334W 01525 0054 190 023 162 162 024 01611 0000000000
2313 1722N 07335W 01524 0054 190 024 166 160 025 01611 0000000000
2313. 1723N 07336W 01524 0055 197 022 166 158 023 01611 0000000000
2314 1724N 07337W 01523 0053 197 022 168 158 022 01609 0000000000
2314. 1725N 07339W 01524 0054 194 022 166 160 023 01611 0000000000
2315 1727N 07340W 01524 0054 195 022 166 158 023 01610 0000000000
2315. 1728N 07341W 01524 0054 198 020 166 164 021 01611 0000000000
2316 1729N 07342W 01524 0053 206 019 166 164 019 01610 0000000000
2316. 1730N 07344W 01524 0052 210 020 168 164 020 01609 0000000000
2317 1731N 07345W 01524 0051 213 020 168 162 020 01608 0000000000
2317. 1733N 07346W 01525 0051 210 021 170 162 022 01609 0000000000
2318 1734N 07347W 01523 0050 209 022 170 162 022 01606 0000000000
2318. 1735N 07349W 01524 0050 205 022 168 162 023 01607 0000000000
2319 1736N 07350W 01523 0048 207 022 166 162 023 01604 0000000000

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Looks like Ernesto is back in business. My call for it dead was extremely poor.

Don't beat yourself up Scorp. We've all made some bad calls with this storm(me included). It's just one of those storms. Come back in an hour and it will probably be doing something else unexpected again, lol..

So true. I was pretty sure this was going to be an Alabama storm.

[Stratosphere747]

Recon..

It's in there right now, right? How long will it be there? And when will it go back?

Sorry for the questions..

Still there and looks to be heading back for another center pass.

[all_we_know_is_FALLING]

Ah, okay. Strato.. thanks.

Once it leaves will it be back again for an overnight trip?

[miamicanes177]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO 05L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 27

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 17.8 74.0 310./ 8.0
6 18.3 74.5 315./ 6.8
12 18.8 75.2 307./ 8.3
18 19.8 75.9 324./11.3
24 20.6 76.6 317./11.0
30 21.5 77.6 313./13.2
36 22.3 78.7 307./12.3
42 23.0 80.0 296./14.1
48 23.4 81.1 291./10.6
54 23.7 81.7 298./ 6.6
60 24.4 82.1 330./ 8.3
66 25.2 82.7 327./ 9.2
72 26.0 82.8 350./ 8.3
78 26.7 82.9 352./ 6.7
84 27.5 82.8 9./ 8.1
90 28.7 82.6 11./12.1
96 29.8 82.4 8./10.9
102 31.0 82.3 2./12.2
108 32.0 82.4 355./ 9.9
114 33.1 82.6 352./11.0
120 33.5 82.4 21./ 4.6
126 34.0 82.1 33./ 5.7

[ronjon]

The storm has tremendous outflow (feathering) and seems to be reorganizing SW of the tip of Haiti. At least 12 hrs over some high oceanic heat content water. I believe the track will be more W-NW from here on in as the ULL to the north is weakening and the ridge is reestablishing itself. I suspect the GFDL solution will ultimately prevail - the trough forecast is not as strong as with Charlie so no radical turns to the NE - just a more gradual north than N-NE turn.

Doesn't the slower the storm move mean that there's a greater chance for the GFDL path to verify? I would also think that the slower the storm moves, means that the HIGH would have more time to build in and divert the storm towards the Florida panhandle...

Doesn't really have much to do with speed rather direction over the next 12-18 hrs. Like Derek said, if it doesn't reach LAT 19.8, its gonna miss the SW jutting peninsula of Cuba and stay over some extremely warm SSTs just south of Cuba. If it moves in this direction it means that ridge is reestablishing itself, hence a more westward track eventually into the SE GOM.

[MWatkins]

Mike, hate to but have to ask this question; when does NHCWX go 24 hour on coverage? With watches already posted in the Keys I figured you guys might crank up tommorrow....

(If yes, just think "Maxwell House" is my friend for the next 3 days plus....)

We will ramp up tomorrow, and go 24 hours starting on Tuesday the way it looks now.

Starting at 8PM tomorrow Charlie Wilson I will host a 1 hour Ernesto special...and DT's show will start at 9...the I am pretty sure coverage and analysis will continue to midnight or so..so 4 hours tomorrow at least.

MW

[PTPatrick]

looks like GFDL is on board with the recurve into Tampa area over g'vill, then up into inland SC

[Thunder44]

670
SXXX50 KNHC 272329
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 54 KNHC
2319. 1737N 07351W 01525 0048 204 024 170 158 024 01606 0000000000
2320 1739N 07352W 01523 0047 203 024 172 158 024 01603 0000000000
2320. 1740N 07354W 01523 0046 205 024 176 158 025 01602 0000000000
2321 1741N 07355W 01525 0046 205 024 180 156 024 01604 0000000000
2321. 1742N 07356W 01524 0044 204 024 180 156 025 01601 0000000000
2322 1744N 07358W 01524 0044 209 022 186 154 023 01601 0000000000
2322. 1745N 07359W 01524 0044 207 022 188 150 022 01601 0000000000
2323 1746N 07400W 01525 0043 202 022 190 148 022 01600 0000000000
2323. 1747N 07401W 01523 0042 211 023 190 148 023 01597 0000000000
2324 1748N 07403W 01525 0041 214 023 186 152 023 01599 0000000000
2324. 1750N 07404W 01522 0039 215 023 186 154 023 01594 0000000000
2325 1751N 07405W 01526 0038 208 024 188 152 025 01597 0000000000
2325. 1752N 07406W 01523 0038 217 024 186 152 026 01594 0000000000
2326 1753N 07407W 01523 0038 235 025 176 158 026 01594 0000000000
2326. 1754N 07409W 01527 0036 235 026 172 158 027 01596 0000000000
2327 1755N 07410W 01524 0035 233 025 170 158 025 01592 0000000000
2327. 1757N 07411W 01522 0033 236 026 176 156 026 01588 0000000000
2328 1758N 07412W 01525 0033 232 027 176 156 029 01590 0000000000
2328. 1759N 07413W 01523 0031 233 030 176 154 030 01587 0000000000
2329 1800N 07414W 01524 0030 232 031 176 156 031 01587 0000000000

[cinlfla]

I need a visual for the GFDL, anyone know where I can get one? TIA

[Opal storm]

looks like GFDL is on board with the recurve into Tampa area over g'vill, then up into inland SC

I had a feeling it would shift east with the other models.

[Stratosphere747]

Should be getting a VDM shortly, and an idea if there was any "western" jog....

[zlaxier]

It did shift EAST. The 12z GFDL had a Panhandle hit.

[JPmia]

Can you say agreement?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

[johngaltfla]

Thanks Mike, I knew we could always count on your team. Now back to the Ernie show with no Bert and about 15 million soon to be panic stricken people.

[AL Chili Pepper]

Yep....looks pretty close to Tampa.

[tgenius]

Can you say agreement?

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif

Alot of those model runs are old by the way... FYI, we have 1800z runs