Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[TampaFl]

The new run of the GFDL is not good news for Tampa Bay. In 84 hours it has Ernesto at the mouth of Tampa Bay as a 970 mb hurricane moving slowly north. If this verifies, could be a devastating storm surge. for the area.




Robert Map courtesy Accuweather.

[Aquawind]

This is a plot of the Recon center fixes from today. Someone can feel free to thumbnail this if they so desire.

http://mywebpages.comcast.net/wxman0071 ... xes_IR.png

Excellent.. Thank You!

[Thatsmrhurricane]

I think it not prudent to lower the alert status of the Keys even if every indication is that is will hit as a TS.

[Derek Ortt]

it only goes with the low-level flow if it is an exposed center

The center is right underneath the convection. This is following the main steering flow

[SouthFloridawx]

663
WTNT35 KNHC 272359
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 PM EDT SUN AUG 27 2006

...ERNESTO WEAKENS A LITTLE MORE BUT TORRENTIAL RAINS CONTINUE...

AT 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE CAYMAN ISLANDS HAS
DOWNGRADED THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS TO A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND CAYMAN BRAC...AND THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR GRAND CAYMAN HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TONIGHT. WATCHES MAY ALSO BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL OR NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS LATER TONIGHT.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...CUBA...
THE NORTHEASTERN YUCATAN PENINSULA OF MEXICO...SOUTHERN FLORIDA...
AND THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 PM EDT...0000Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
RE-LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.4 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI...AND ABOUT
140 MILES...225 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH...12 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL MOVE AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI
TONIGHT...AND BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN COAST OF EASTERN CUBA MONDAY
MORNING.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT
THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 50 MPH...85
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ERNESTO IS FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AFTER
IT MOVES AWAY FROM SOUTHWESTERN HAITI AND IT COULD REGAIN HURRICANE
STATUS BEFORE IT REACHES THE SOUTH COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TOMORROW
MORNING.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES...185 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004 MB...29.65 INCHES.

TIDES OF UP TO 3 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS ARE EXPECTED ON JAMAICA
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA OF HAITI. TIDES OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL ALONG WITH LARGE BATTERING WAVES ARE EXPECTED ON THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER HAITI...THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...AND PORTIONS OF CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
3 TO 5 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES...ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF JAMAICA.

REPEATING THE 800 PM EDT POSITION...18.2 N...74.4 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 7 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN

[ConvergenceZone]

time for it to start blowing up big time, here we go!!!!!!!! No shear, over open water.....etc..etc.etc.

[chris_fit]

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2006


...Ernesto weakens a little more but torrential rains continue...

At 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...the government of the Cayman Islands has
downgraded the Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands to a tropical
storm watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac...and the Hurricane
Watch for Grand Cayman has been discontinued.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys...
from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Hurricane Watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.


Additional hurricane watches may be required for portions of the
Florida Peninsula later tonight. Watches may also be required for
portions of the central or northwestern Bahamas later tonight.


A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to the
southwestern tip of Haiti. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect
for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...
Granma... Holguin...Las Tunas...and Camaguey. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.


A Tropical Storm Warning is recommended for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona to the Dominican Republic-Haiti
border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area...in this case
within the next 12 to 24 hours.


A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Jamaica.


Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...Cuba...
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...southern Florida...
and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...should monitor the progress
of Ernesto.


For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.


At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
re-located near latitude 18.2 north...longitude 74.4 west. This
position is very near the southwestern tip of Haiti...and about
140 miles...225 km...south-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.


Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph...12 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On this track the center will move away from southwestern Haiti
tonight...and be near the southern coast of eastern Cuba Monday
morning.


Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph...85
km/hr...with higher gusts. Ernesto is forecast to strengthen after
it moves away from southwestern Haiti and it could regain hurricane
status before it reaches the South Coast of eastern Cuba tomorrow
morning.


Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
from the center.


The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.


Tides of up to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected on Jamaica
and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. Tides of 4 to 6 feet above
normal along with large battering waves are expected on the southern
coast of eastern Cuba.


Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts
of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti...the Dominican
Republic...and portions of Cuba. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall amounts of
3 to 5 inches...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches...are expected across portions of Jamaica.


Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...18.2 N...74.4 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.


The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1100 PM EDT.


$$
Forecaster Franklin

[caneman]

The new run of the GFDL is not good news for Tampa Bay. In 84 hours it has Ernesto at the mouth of Tampa Bay as a 970 mb hurricane moving slowly north. If this verifies, could be a devastating storm surge. for the area.




Robert Map courtesy Accuweather.

Man did you have to show me that.

[rnbaida]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2006



...Ernesto weakens a little more but torrential rains continue...
At 8 PM EDT...0000 UTC...the government of the Cayman Islands has
downgraded the Hurricane Watch for the Cayman Islands to a tropical
storm watch for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac...and the Hurricane
Watch for Grand Cayman has been discontinued.
A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for all of the Florida Keys...
from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Hurricane Watch means that
hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area...generally
within 36 hours.

Additional hurricane watches may be required for portions of the
Florida Peninsula later tonight. Watches may also be required for
portions of the central or northwestern Bahamas later tonight.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the southwestern peninsula
of Haiti from the Haiti-Dominican Republic border westward to the
southwestern tip of Haiti. A Hurricane Warning remains in effect
for the Cuban provinces of Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...
Granma... Holguin...Las Tunas...and Camaguey. A Hurricane Warning
means that hurricane conditions are expected within the warning
area within the next 24 hours. Preparations to protect life and
property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning is recommended for the South Coast of the
Dominican Republic from Barahona to the Dominican Republic-Haiti
border. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm
conditions are expected within the warning area...in this case
within the next 12 to 24 hours.

A Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Jamaica.

Interests elsewhere in the northwestern Caribbean Sea...Cuba...
the northeastern Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico...southern Florida...
and the southeastern Gulf of Mexico...should monitor the progress
of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 800 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Tropical Storm Ernesto was
re-located near latitude 18.2 north...longitude 74.4 west. This
position is very near the southwestern tip of Haiti...and about
140 miles...225 km...south-southeast of Guantanamo Cuba.

Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 7 mph...12 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On this track the center will move away from southwestern Haiti
tonight...and be near the southern coast of eastern Cuba Monday
morning.

Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 50 mph...85
km/hr...with higher gusts. Ernesto is forecast to strengthen after
it moves away from southwestern Haiti and it could regain hurricane
status before it reaches the South Coast of eastern Cuba tomorrow
morning.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles...185 km
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb...29.65 inches.

Tides of up to 3 ft above normal tide levels are expected on Jamaica
and the southwestern peninsula of Haiti. Tides of 4 to 6 feet above
normal along with large battering waves are expected on the southern
coast of eastern Cuba.

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts
of up to 20 inches...are expected over Haiti...the Dominican
Republic...and portions of Cuba. These rains could cause
life-threatening flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall amounts of
3 to 5 inches...with possible isolated maximum amounts of 8
inches...are expected across portions of Jamaica.

Repeating the 800 PM EDT position...18.2 N...74.4 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 7 mph. Maximum sustained winds...50 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1004 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 1100 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Franklin

[Thunder44]

395
SXXX50 KNHC 272349
AF302 0605A ERNESTO HDOB 56 KNHC
2339. 1804N 07430W 01523 0033 256 020 166 166 021 01589 0000000000
2340 1803N 07428W 01524 0033 246 021 168 168 022 01590 0000000000
2340. 1802N 07427W 01524 0033 248 021 168 168 021 01589 0000000000
2341 1801N 07425W 01524 0033 242 023 168 168 024 01590 0000000000
2341. 1801N 07424W 01524 0033 245 027 164 164 030 01590 0000000000
2342 1800N 07422W 01525 0033 246 033 164 164 034 01591 0000000000
2342. 1759N 07420W 01529 0034 245 034 166 156 034 01595 0000000000
2343 1758N 07418W 01740 0048 245 032 164 146 035 01820 0000000000
2343. 1757N 07417W 02176 0076 234 023 164 116 025 02291 0000000000
2344 1756N 07415W 02617 0102 220 025 134 082 025 02765 0000000000
2344. 1756N 07413W 02867 0122 225 024 112 066 024 03035 0000000000
2345 1755N 07411W 02895 0127 225 024 108 066 024 03068 0000000000
2345. 1754N 07410W 03021 0135 224 025 094 070 025 03203 0000000000
2346 1754N 07408W 03350 0164 220 022 080 036 023 03562 0000000000
2346. 1753N 07406W 03502 0176 218 025 082 003 026 03725 0000000000
2347 1753N 07403W 03503 0176 214 024 076 014 025 03728 0000000000
2347. 1753N 07402W 03505 0178 212 025 074 026 025 03731 0000000000
2348 1753N 07359W 03505 0179 214 026 074 014 026 03732 0000000000
2348. 1753N 07357W 03505 0178 215 026 074 012 026 03730 0000000000
2349 1753N 07355W 03506 0180 212 024 066 016 025 03733 0000000000




Plane increasing in altitude and leaving. The mission is over.

[rockyman]

Notice the 8pm adviso does not mention "NW or WNW motion" only "NW" motion

[johngaltfla]

That GFDL run is unnerving. Folks I'm not sure how good it will be with this storm, but that's a formula for a major disaster.

If it verifies, I'll bow to the GFDL Gods when and if I get power, internet, employment and a house again.

[JPmia]

"Watches may also be required for
portions of the central or northwestern Bahamas later tonight."

That's interesting...are they hedging their bets?

[edbri871]

this is not a 60 m.p.h. TS, closer to 40-45 m.p.h., meaning I wonder if the hurricane watches for the Keys will be changed to TS watches

Derek I dont mean to argue with you, but some of your comments the last 2 days have really surprised me.

#1 you stated Ernesto "will not strike the west coast of florida"
#2 Hurricane watches/ warnings are posts if they expect hurricane conditions. They obviously expect this to intensify. What does the current intensity have to do with the expected winds in 48 hours?

[johngaltfla]

Notice the 8pm adviso does not mention "NW or WNW motion" only "NW" motion

I'm wondering if because of the proximity to land if they can get a good fix. They have to approach from over 10,000 feet on any run NE to SW and vice-versa due to the mountains...

[Stratosphere747]

How about a center reformation to the NE.....

[JonathanBelles]

does anyone have the link to the GFDL?

[Bocadude85]

Hmm wondering if the track isnt going to be shifted a little further east considering they mentioned the possibility of watches for the central and northwestern bahamas in the 8pm public advisory

[Scorpion]

Derek do you have any idea why this continues to weaken?

[jabber]

Yeah I noticed that as well. Find that Kinda strange for a storm going up the west coast of FL

"Watches may also be required for
portions of the central or northwestern Bahamas later tonight."

That's interesting...are they hedging their bets?