Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[CYCLONE MIKE]

frederic that is a darn good question. I was wondering that same thing earlier today when I saw how slow it was moving. I would also like to hear some opinions on this. Mainly is it possible?

[Blown Away]

Is the center under that ball of convection to the N of the peninsula, if so has the convection refired a little. If it keeps this track it will go over the extreme NE part of Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

[miamicanes177]

and the 18Z GFDL indeed has this passing over northern cuba and curving into the Gulf for a florida hit.

[saints63213]

here is a link that you can see the Center. this is from rolltide


http://www.nlmoc.navy.mil/products/anim ... &gtype=JPG

[wxman57]

I made a SLOSH map for a Cat 1 hurricane (avg. size) hitting Tampa from the SSW:

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/TPAslosh.gif

As you can see, not much of a big deal when they hit at a low angle of approach.

[the_winds_that_sheared_me]

Is the center under that ball of convection to the N of the peninsula, if so has the convection refired a little. If it keeps this track it will go over the extreme NE part of Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

The NHC did report a relocation to the north at 8pm. I think I am beginning to see why the NHC added this line to the 8pm advisory.

Watches may also be required for
portions of the central or northwestern Bahamas later tonight.

[Blown Away]

is it me or does it look to have taken a big northward jump?

I was wondering the same thing, and if the center is under that ball of convection, if so it is a big N jog, IMO!

[jasons2k]

I'm looking at the water vapor loops here. It's clear from 2 days ago, Ernesto was expected to continue WNW and sorta slip between the ULL to its west and the one approaching from the NE - as the SE ridge guided the storm around its periphery.

Now to my question. The ULL to its north is now rapidly approaching the Bahamas. Within a few hours, this ULL will have its center axis to the west of Ernesto. What impact will this have on the track? Will it pull Ernesto north around the east side of the ULL? If this happens, how will Ernesto then react to the SE ridge?

[Stratosphere747]

Starting to wonder if Ernie even makes it to Florida...

Has to be one of the bigger swings of possible paths in recent memory.

[Canelaw99]

Is the center under that ball of convection to the N of the peninsula, if so has the convection refired a little. If it keeps this track it will go over the extreme NE part of Cuba.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/wv-l.jpg

If it stays on that current path NW, it looks as though it won't go over very much of Cuba at all. That does not bode well for those of us in the SE Fl/Keys area as that would allow Ernie more time over some pretty toasty waters and not much weakening thanks to land....oy...

[AJC3]

Interesting happenings. You can see what appears to be the center on the Gran Piedra radar north of the SW tip of Haiti, whereas the last center fix was just SW of the tip.

[marcane_1973]

Ernesto looks like he is on his death bed on this visible satellite photo. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg The deep reds have dissapeared on IR.

[JtSmarts]

This is setting for some interesting recon early tomorrow morning.

[Blown Away]

Starting to wonder if Ernie even makes it to Florida...
Has to be one of the bigger swings if possible paths in recent memory.

It reminds me of the good old days here in FL when everything that was supposed to hit us curved E of us up to the Carolinas! That sure has changed over the past few years.

[Andrew92]

Despite my thinking that it will likely still re-organize and intensify later, it does seem as if today Ernesto finally decided he quickly wanted to see what being a hurricane was like, doesn't it? First time there's ever been a Hurricane Ernesto, you know.

But back to the subject.....no, despite it's disorganization, I'm still not ruling out a hurricane before landfall on Cuba, no matter how unlikely it may be now. And a C2 into Florida is still possible. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst.

-Andrew92

[28_Storms]

Ernesto looks like he is on his death bed on this visible satellite photo. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/vis.jpg The deep reds have dissapeared on IR.

Watching surviving Katrina on Discover I really hope you're right. I do not want my family to suffer. Please die storm.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Does anyone think warnings will go up at 11 for parts of FL? It looks like Ernesto is N of guidance once more. Seems reasonable.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

What about intensity forecast IF this is a SEFL event? It does not look like the models are buying a strong cyclone.

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... nsity1.png

Even if some are still moving E. . . . Please trend west.

My guess is 50mph NW @ 8mph. Preparing SEFL for a hurricane. 19N 75W. A little E of previous track.

[Aquawind]

Good Point AJC3! Hmm that would be a more than a jog..

[Starburst]

Lets just all hope and pray that it slides on up more north and east missing Florida all together. Seems at this point it is not a totally off the wall scenerio.

[Brent]

Does anyone think warnings will go up at 11 for parts of FL? It looks like Ernesto is N of guidance once more. Seems reasonable.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/float2.html

Not warnings but I do see watches for parts of the Peninsula(probably on both coasts).