Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[jasons2k]

Posted earlier, afraid it's buried:

I'm looking at the water vapor loops here. It's clear from 2 days ago, Ernesto was expected to continue WNW and sorta slip between the ULL to its west and the one approaching from the NE - as the SE ridge guided the storm around its periphery.

Now to my question. The ULL to its north is now rapidly approaching the Bahamas. Within a few hours, this ULL will have its center axis to the west of Ernesto. What impact will this have on the track? Will it pull Ernesto north around the east side of the ULL? If this happens, how will Ernesto then react to the SE ridge?

[HDGator]

You can just make out the LLC on the western edge of the convection to the west of that Haiti Peninsula.

What are you using to just make out the LLC? Link?

[boca]

Is it possible that Ernesto starts moving due north and never interacts with Cuba then out to sea and prove the models wrong?

[Sanibel]

I think the sputtering is starting to sort out and Ernesto is on a track right to the middle of the "boot" of east Cuba.

Guantanamo should take a near miss of maybe a category 1 hurricane (if it doesn't rapidly intensify).

As I posted last night, Ernesto has entered the "dry" side of that diagonal weather border divide seen last night and is taking whatever atmospheric condition was on that side of the divide. That's why it is weakening.

I still think Ernesto has the upper hand on strength and should rebound over the Windward Passage. If it doesn't the dry side has him and we could be looking at a weak storm all the way.

This track will run the spine of Cuba and could even wipe Ernesto back down to a TD.


This could be the last of the north veers and establishment of a periphery track around the now-holding High.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Timing my friends . . . All about the timing.

And it is time for me to go to bed.

Good night to all.

[Dean4Storms]

You can just make out the LLC on the western edge of the convection to the west of that Haiti Peninsula.

What are you using to just make out the LLC? Link?

This visible now in IR, zoom in and you should make out the hook of half the LLC about 30-40 miles almost due west of that tip of Haiti, its still on the NHC track and looks to me that the ULL to its north may be in the process of DECOUPLING Ernesto.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-vis.html

[caneman]

I just posted on another thread about this. That ULL should spell the end I would think. Where did that come from? Guess I wasn't paying attention

[southerngale]

A question on page 1 that got skipped. Perhaps one of our kind mets could respond...

Quick question for the pro mets... assuming Ernesto survives, what, if any, track implications would the unexpected slower forward speed have. Looking at previous projections, Ernie is about 24 hours behind schedule. Could this storm possibly stay weak enough and move slow enough to miss the trough altogether? I think this has happened before in the past and the trough lifts out and the ridge builds in.

[jasons2k]

A question on page 1 that got skipped. Perhaps one of our kind mets could respond...

Quick question for the pro mets... assuming Ernesto survives, what, if any, track implications would the unexpected slower forward speed have. Looking at previous projections, Ernie is about 24 hours behind schedule. Could this storm possibly stay weak enough and move slow enough to miss the trough altogether? I think this has happened before in the past and the trough lifts out and the ridge builds in.

Hey Kelly,

I'm wondering that myself and I'm also wondering the implications of the ULL to the north soon being to the NW (Not NE) of Ernesto....but it looks like the pros may have scared away?

[vbhoutex]

Is it possible that Ernesto starts moving due north and never interacts with Cuba then out to sea and prove the models wrong?

It is starting to look more and more possible, but one run of one model does not mean it will happen. IMO, it is becoming more and more of possibility that Ernesto may not see the W coast of FL. His location now makes him vulnerable from the West and the East as far as the high mountains and land interaction are concerned.

[gtalum]

The new 11 pm NHC forecast track is ever so slightly further east than the 5 pm track.

[tampastorm]

Where do you see this ULL? I dont see it, thanks

[ROCK]

Where do you see this ULL? I dont see it, thanks

25N 75W....dropping quickly

[caneman]

Where do you see this ULL? I dont see it, thanks

Use Water Vapor loop. Can't miss it

[cycloneye]

11 PM Forecast Track.Shifted more east.

[Sanibel]

A new option of a bust up over Cuba is now possible.


If Ernesto bursts tonight back to hurricane he'll blow away that ULL.

[JonathanBelles]

if it speeds up can it still hit tampa directly?

[Aquawind]

Wow still 90kts in the forecast..

[caneman]

if it speeds up can it still hit tampa directly?

Yes, we're in the cone.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

getting tired, but feeling much better about this storm now. I'm almost afraid to go to sleep in case I wake up to a heck of a suprise tomorrow morning of E having undergone lots of strengthening, speeding up, and making a bullseye for Tampa again.

hopefully it can jog east and not hit any land! -not that I believe that will happen yet