Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Message
Author
User avatar
Extremeweatherguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 11095
Joined: Mon Oct 10, 2005 8:13 pm
Location: Florida

#81 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Sun Aug 27, 2006 9:52 pm

Aquawind wrote:Wow still 90kts in the forecast..
no, that is gusts. The top intensity the NHC predicts Ernesto will get before hitting FL is now 75 knots.

000
WTNT25 KNHC 280239
TCMAT5
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
0300 UTC MON AUG 28 2006

AT 11 PM...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT EXUMA IN THE
CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

AT 11 PM...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED THE HURRICANE
WATCH FOR JAMAICA. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...
FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS.

ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA EARLY TOMORROW MORNING.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN PENINSULA
OF HAITI FROM THE HAITI-DOMINICAN REPUBLIC BORDER WESTWARD TO THE
SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI. A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...
GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING
MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING
AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS RECOMMENDED FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF THE
DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM BARAHONA TO THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC-HAITI
BORDER.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR LITTLE CAYMAN AND
CAYMAN BRAC.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 74.7W AT 28/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT 6 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE 50SW 80NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 74.7W AT 28/0300Z
AT 28/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.2N 74.4W

FORECAST VALID 28/1200Z 19.6N 75.7W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 15SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 30SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.2N 77.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.8N 79.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.0N 81.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/0000Z 27.0N 82.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/0000Z 31.0N 81.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/0000Z 35.0N 77.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.6N 74.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
0 likes   

Coredesat

#82 Postby Coredesat » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:01 pm

What's this AEMN model? Is it the new LBAR? :lol:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weathe ... orm_05.gif
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38106
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#83 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:03 pm

From the discussion:

A QUICK LOOK AT SOME OF THE 500 MB DATA SHOWS
SOMEWHAT HIGHER HEIGHTS IN THE BAHAMAS THAN FORECAST BY THE
GFS...SO I WOULDN'T BE TOO SURPRISED TO SEE THE 00Z MODELS SHIFT A
LITTLE TO THE LEFT.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
CronkPSU
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2014
Joined: Sun Aug 07, 2005 10:44 pm
Location: Avalon Park, FL

#84 Postby CronkPSU » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:05 pm

Tropical Storm Ernesto Discussion Number 14

Statement as of 11:00 PM EDT on August 27, 2006



the reconnaissance mission ended around 00z...and the highest winds
the aircraft could find were 41 kt. They were unable to get
northeast of the center due to land...so it is possible they did
not Sample the strongest winds. Nevertheless...the advisory
intensity estimate of 45 kt is probably high. In general...the
satellite depiction of Ernesto is not as strong as it was earlier
in the day...with little banding and cloud tops that have warmed
somewhat.
The initial motion is 320/6. There has been little change to the
synoptic reasoning or the forecast track. All the global models
aggressively shift the mid-level high over the southeastern United
States eastward over the next two days in advance of a shortwave
trough moving into the Mississippi Valley. This is expected to
allow Ernesto to move in the general direction of South Florida.
There has been some convergence in the guidance suite...with the
NOGAPS shifting westward and the GFDL shifting eastward...and both
toward the Florida Keys. The GFS and ECMWF are on the right side
of the guidance envelope near the Southeast Florida coast...and the
UKMET is on the left...just west of the Keys. The model consensus
has not moved much and neither has the official forecast.
There could be some shifts when the 00z models come out...as they
will have the benefit of dropsonde data from the NOAA G-IV jet and
an Air Force c-130. A quick look at some of the 500 mb data shows
somewhat higher heights in the Bahamas than forecast by the
GFS...so I wouldn't be too surprised to see the 00z models shift a
little to the left.
The intensity forecast is greatly complicated by land interactions
with Cuba. Should Ernesto not regain much organization before
reaching Cuba...it is possible that not a lot will be left of the
cyclone when it emerges into the Florida Straits. However...the
upper-level winds remain conducive for development...and the
official forecast will assume a vigorous restrengthening overnight
tonight and a substantial cyclone surviving the passage over Cuba.
In this the official forecast is close to the GFDL guidance...but
well above the SHIPS model.


Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 28/0300z 18.6n 74.7w 45 kt
12hr VT 28/1200z 19.6n 75.7w 60 kt
24hr VT 29/0000z 21.2n 77.6w 55 kt...inland
36hr VT 29/1200z 22.8n 79.5w 55 kt
48hr VT 30/0000z 24.0n 81.0w 70 kt
72hr VT 31/0000z 27.0n 82.0w 75 kt...inland
96hr VT 01/0000z 31.0n 81.0w 55 kt
120hr VT 02/0000z 35.0n 77.0w 50 kt...inland

$$
forecaster Franklin
0 likes   

caneman

#85 Postby caneman » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:08 pm

Something very interesting to note here is comment about the heights over Bahamas and wouldn't be surpriesed with a shift back left. Another important thing to note is they mention increased forward speed. Indeed when you look at the plots after 12 hours it does increase speed from 6 mph to 10 mph and of course that means less time over land which could mean..........
0 likes   

6SpeedTA95
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1206
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:25 pm
Location: Oklahoma
Contact:

#86 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:15 pm

Down to 45kts? Wow...It's a moderate TS at this point.
0 likes   

User avatar
Normandy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2293
Joined: Sun Oct 10, 2004 12:31 am
Location: Houston, TX

#87 Postby Normandy » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:17 pm

Quite honestly im surprised they didnt downgrade it Ernesto looks poor.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#88 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:17 pm

caneman wrote:Something very interesting to note here is comment about the heights over Bahamas and wouldn't be surpriesed with a shift back left. Another important thing to note is they mention increased forward speed. Indeed when you look at the plots after 12 hours it does increase speed from 6 mph to 10 mph and of course that means less time over land which could mean..........


I do agree with these heights. The flow across South Florida is pretty good now from the east.....
0 likes   

User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:

#89 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:18 pm

Not looking to impressive ATM.. need some refiring.. most of the convection is well north of the last recon area..
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#90 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:21 pm

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


well Ive been gone for the past several hours. My take on Ernesto right now is that I DO think it is just in a "lull" at the moment and battling the big landmasses. I think it will pop out just north of SE Cuba and then REALLY begin to get its act together. I am still forecasting rapid strengthening once it hits the 86F water temps in the straits and little to no shear.
0 likes   

User avatar
ALhurricane
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 452
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2003 12:46 pm
Location: Daphne, AL

#91 Postby ALhurricane » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:22 pm

Things certainly don't look good for Ernesto at this point. We are entering the typically favorable overnight convective maximum and Ernesto has actually shown a decrease in convection. If Ernesto doesn't develop some deep convection tonight, then its trip across Cuba may be its death march.

What a difference a day makes. Ernesto certainly ranks up there as one of the more humbling tropical forecasts in quite some time (at least for me).
0 likes   

User avatar
Canelaw99
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 2128
Age: 48
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 8:27 am
Location: Homestead, FL

#92 Postby Canelaw99 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:24 pm

That sounds fairly sound gator....we all know that any interaction with land can disrupt the flow of a storm, but it doesn't appear that Ernesto will have a ton of interaction with Cuba, and it looks like it will have a while over to water to get its act together beyond Cuba. I figure as long as it comes off Cuba as a TS, it will have no problem getting back to at least a Cat. 1 'cane, and I wouldn't be surprised to see a Cat. 2 or higher depending on how quickly it moves away from Cuba.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#93 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:24 pm

ALhurricane wrote:Things certainly don't look good for Ernesto at this point. We are entering the typically favorable overnight convective maximum and Ernesto has actually shown a decrease in convection. If Ernesto doesn't develop some deep convection tonight, then its trip across Cuba may be its death march.

What a difference a day makes. Ernesto certainly ranks up there as one of the more humbling tropical forecasts in quite some time (at least for me).


I would not be so quick to dismiss Ernesto. He will be out of the landmass interaction by this time tomorrow and I really think it will rapidly strengthen.....just my opinion.
0 likes   

User avatar
skysummit
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5305
Age: 49
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 11:09 pm
Location: Ponchatoula, LA
Contact:

#94 Postby skysummit » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:27 pm

ALhurricane wrote:Things certainly don't look good for Ernesto at this point. We are entering the typically favorable overnight convective maximum and Ernesto has actually shown a decrease in convection. If Ernesto doesn't develop some deep convection tonight, then its trip across Cuba may be its death march.

What a difference a day makes. Ernesto certainly ranks up there as one of the more humbling tropical forecasts in quite some time (at least for me).


I agree AL. It's amazing how much change can occur in 24-48 hours. It surely surprised me! Not too long ago we were looking at a major hurricane, maybe even a Category 4 in the gulf, and now he's struggling to survive. Hopefully he just continues to fall apart and just gives Florida a little rain :)
Last edited by skysummit on Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:28 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
marcane_1973
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 330
Age: 51
Joined: Mon Jun 26, 2006 11:01 pm
Location: N.C.
Contact:

#95 Postby marcane_1973 » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:27 pm

After looking at the latest IR It looks as if Ernesto might be on his last breath. http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg I would not be suprised at all to wake up and see Ernesto downgraded to a depression. What a terrible looking storm. Alberto makes this storm look like Charley
0 likes   

ericinmia
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1573
Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 11:15 pm
Location: Miami Lakes, FL

#96 Postby ericinmia » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:28 pm

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/SAT_ ... im8wv.html

Wouldn't the ULL that is spinning north of Ernesto and moving to the west quickly... decrease for the next 12 hours or so the effects of the ridge on his steering... just a little imo info...
Last edited by ericinmia on Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:29 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38106
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:

#97 Postby Brent » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:28 pm

gatorcane wrote:
ALhurricane wrote:Things certainly don't look good for Ernesto at this point. We are entering the typically favorable overnight convective maximum and Ernesto has actually shown a decrease in convection. If Ernesto doesn't develop some deep convection tonight, then its trip across Cuba may be its death march.

What a difference a day makes. Ernesto certainly ranks up there as one of the more humbling tropical forecasts in quite some time (at least for me).


I would not be so quick to dismiss Ernesto. He will be out of the landmass interaction by this time tomorrow and I really think it will rapidly strengthen.....just my opinion.


I agree. He certainly has the potential.
0 likes   
#neversummer

User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:

#98 Postby Aquawind » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:28 pm

gatorcane wrote:
ALhurricane wrote:Things certainly don't look good for Ernesto at this point. We are entering the typically favorable overnight convective maximum and Ernesto has actually shown a decrease in convection. If Ernesto doesn't develop some deep convection tonight, then its trip across Cuba may be its death march.

What a difference a day makes. Ernesto certainly ranks up there as one of the more humbling tropical forecasts in quite some time (at least for me).


I would not be so quick to dismiss Ernesto. He will be out of the landmass interaction by this time tomorrow and I really think it will rapidly strengthen.....just my opinion.


A naked swirl crossing Cuba is not good for regen anytime soon though.
0 likes   

User avatar
ALhurricane
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 452
Joined: Wed Jan 08, 2003 12:46 pm
Location: Daphne, AL

#99 Postby ALhurricane » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:29 pm

gatorcane wrote:
ALhurricane wrote:Things certainly don't look good for Ernesto at this point. We are entering the typically favorable overnight convective maximum and Ernesto has actually shown a decrease in convection. If Ernesto doesn't develop some deep convection tonight, then its trip across Cuba may be its death march.

What a difference a day makes. Ernesto certainly ranks up there as one of the more humbling tropical forecasts in quite some time (at least for me).


I would not be so quick to dismiss Ernesto. He will be out of the landmass interaction by this time tomorrow and I really think it will rapidly strengthen.....just my opinion.


I am certainly not counting out restrengthening. Just laying out the scenario if convection really doesn't get going overnight.
0 likes   

User avatar
gatorcane
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23692
Age: 47
Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
Location: Boca Raton, FL

#100 Postby gatorcane » Sun Aug 27, 2006 10:30 pm

Aquawind wrote:
gatorcane wrote:
ALhurricane wrote:Things certainly don't look good for Ernesto at this point. We are entering the typically favorable overnight convective maximum and Ernesto has actually shown a decrease in convection. If Ernesto doesn't develop some deep convection tonight, then its trip across Cuba may be its death march.

What a difference a day makes. Ernesto certainly ranks up there as one of the more humbling tropical forecasts in quite some time (at least for me).


I would not be so quick to dismiss Ernesto. He will be out of the landmass interaction by this time tomorrow and I really think it will rapidly strengthen.....just my opinion.


A naked swirl crossing Cuba is not good for regen anytime soon though.


True but the overall "structure" of Ernesto is still good AND I think the trip over Cuba will be shorter than some think as it looks to me Ernesto is *still* dancing to the north. The convection has waned but there should be no problem or regeneration once the center makes it north of the hispaniola lattitude.
0 likes   


Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Cleveland Kent Evans, Cpv17, kevin, Pelicane and 44 guests