Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[curtadams]

At present he appears to be getting damaged by SWly mid-level shear, which is pretty strong there. The convection moving to the N, dissipating, and then refiring is pretty diagnostic for mid-level shear.

[jaxfladude]

or that is the question as to the end result of "Ernesto"

[boca]

I think Ernesto will struggle and not refire and most likely be a wave by tomorrow nite unless it refires soon because it will run out of water once it hits those mountains of Eastern Cuba.

[WxGuy1]

I would not be so quick to dismiss Ernesto. He will be out of the landmass interaction by this time tomorrow and I really think it will rapidly strengthen.....just my opinion.

By this time tomorrow, the NHC has Ernesto over Cuba, which is the opposite of "he will be out of the landmass interaction by this time tomorrow".

It's usually much more difficut for poorly-organized storms to reintensify quickly, since it usually takes time for the inner core to reorganize before intensification.

Indeed, a day makes a big difference! Tropical cyclone forecasts are NEVER easy, even this one (which was originally going to be a relatively straight-forward steady intensification and passage into the Gulf). My forecast is becoming increasingly pessimistic in terms of reintensification, and I remain open to the possibility that Ernesto will weaken into an open tropical wave by Tuesday morning. That's my highest-probability forecast, though I think there is a small prob of reintensification to hurricane strength by its next landfall.

[Wx_Warrior]

Caneman....i dont know how further west you think it's going to shift but if it does, i dont believe it will be much...

For florida's sake, hope Cuba tears ol Ernie up and you get down pours...If not, look out.

[gatorcane]

But if you look at the water vapor loop, Ernesto is still showing excellent symmetry and impressive outflow - just lacking the big deep inner convection. So my point is that the skeleton of Ernesto is STILL there and it could start to blowup again at any time - most likely when it gets just far enough way from Cuba and Hispaniola.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-wv.html

[Brent]

New blob(center?)

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... JmpDqf.jpg

[CronkPSU]

the discussion seems to point out they think this thing will be a lot stronger in the next 12 hours or so....

[Canelaw99]

If that blob is indeed the center (recon should tell us eventually), Ernie will be at Cuba in no time, and over it sooner, IMO....not good because he'll have a lot of his basic structure left for regeneration....

[Aquawind]

New blob(center?)

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... JmpDqf.jpg

That's what I am talkin about... Dang..

[miamicanes177]

New blob(center?)

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... JmpDqf.jpg

according to Dvoark, no
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/ERNESTO.GIF

[Brent]

If that blob is indeed the center (recon should tell us eventually), Ernie will be at Cuba in no time, and over it sooner, IMO....not good because he'll have a lot of his basic structure left for regeneration....

Yeah... that was my point.

If it doesn't work, just go here click on IR and click on Ernesto.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

[gatorcane]

If that blob is indeed the center (recon should tell us eventually), Ernie will be at Cuba in no time, and over it sooner, IMO....not good because he'll have a lot of his basic structure left for regeneration....

Yeah... that was my point.

If it doesn't work, just go here click on IR and click on Ernesto.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

Yep another center jump to the north could be possible I think - I think you are on to something here...could miss alot of Cuba and change the intensity forecast.

I agree, lets watch this!

[Aquawind]

Definately north of the center.. but it is going to make the overnight all that much more interesting when the sattelite is back up..

[curtadams]

New blob(center?)

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES ... JmpDqf.jpg

according to Dvoark, no
http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/ERNESTO.GIF

Check the center positioning method - "FORECAST INTERPOLATION" So AODT isn't using that burst to position the center.

Remember although that burst almost certainly came from the center it's not necessarily right over the center since those are cloudtops and they get sheared on the way up. A center somewhat to the SW is very possible.

[gatorcane]

a deep red spot just popped up north of the current center on the last frame of the AVN:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[gatorcane]

new GFS run is showing Ernesto now going East of the FL peninsula....very interesting...could this miss the US completely???

[PTPatrick]

wait til the whole run comes in...looks to be still hiting the mid keys.....

66 hrs over Lake Okechobee

[cpdaman]

PRO METS

what effect does the uLL at 25n 75 W have on this system

i have not heard anyone reply to this and i never heard this mentioned instead it seemed to just pop up and start shearing the system

[jimvb]

How fast is the cold front moving? We're supposed to get cooler weather this week in Virginia. It's possible this thing could be a complete fish, from what GFS says. But what do the other model runs say? I wonder if they will follow suit. The last GFDL seems to trump this with a charge into interior Georgia and North Carolina.