Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[gatorcane]

How fast is the cold front moving? We're supposed to get cooler weather this week in Virginia. It's possible this thing could be a complete fish, from what GFS says. But what do the other model runs say? I wonder if they will follow suit. The last GFDL seems to trump this with a charge into interior Georgia and North Carolina.

Correction, GFS puts it over Miami now at 54 hours....

[mempho]

How fast is the cold front moving? We're supposed to get cooler weather this week in Virginia. It's possible this thing could be a complete fish, from what GFS says. But what do the other model runs say? I wonder if they will follow suit. The last GFDL seems to trump this with a charge into interior Georgia and North Carolina.

Correction, GFS puts it over Miami now at 54 hours....

What is the strength at landfall in terms of pressure?

[Derek Ortt]

the UL has been mentioned many times

Those posts just were buried beneath pages of useless drivel

[stormtruth]

the UL has been mentioned many times

Those posts just were buried beneath pages of useless drivel

Easy now. Some people probably worked hard on their posts

[miamicanes177]

I will not be surprised to wake up to a naked swirl and a tropical depression/open wave.

[Aquawind]

Major refire near the center and over water as the eclipse begins..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[Praxus]

Cloud tops getting colder once again

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/avn.jpg

[CronkPSU]

I will not be surprised to wake up to a naked swirl and a tropical depression/open wave.

i am leaning the other way, less land interaction now, higher water temps...hard to think this will keep getting weaker

[flyingphish]

Neither would I. Not such a bad thing. I actually expected this storm to be garbage when I woke up yesterday. But since it is still clinging on and behaving erratically. I will observe for one more evening.

[gatorcane]

Major refire near the center and over water as the eclipse begins..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

Yep I see it - hopefully just temporary!!! I don't want to wake up tomorrow AM with a huge red blob that blew up during the diurnal maximum.

[Brent]

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/

4:01 image is even more impressive.

This storm just baffles me.

[CronkPSU]

Major refire near the center and over water as the eclipse begins..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

well we have recon at least...any radar loops?

[cpdaman]

ok do any promets see the mid level shear weakening signifigantly wether it's from the ull or not

[Aquawind]

Radar - http://tinyurl.com/jn9ow

[cpdaman]

ernesto fought the good fight and is now on his death bed

anyone else think the nhc and promets would not be politically correct to call this yet, but they are all breathing a bigger sigh of releif as this continues

to weaken by the hour

[AL Chili Pepper]

I will not be surprised to wake up to a naked swirl and a tropical depression/open wave.

I'm thinking that might be the case. This may be the most baffling system I've ever tracked. Cat 4 in TX all the way to a red spot off of Haiti soon to cross the mountains of Cuba. It's not over yet, but what a difference a year makes.

[Praxus]

ernesto fought the good fight and is now on his death bed

anyone else think the nhc and promets would not be politically correct to call this yet, but they are all breathing a bigger sigh of releif as this continues

to weaken by the hour

How do you reconcile that with convection refiring as per the last two sat frames ?

[boca]

One red blob but no banding features whats up with that.

[cpdaman]

look i want it too strenghten but look at the storm two thunderstorms popping up is not the same as "tropical cyclone" convection refiring

it looks very consistent with a dieing sputtering system

c it as u want

[Droop12]

I figured a blowup would occur, of course it happens right at the eclipse. Can someone post the 4:01 sat. image as I cant seem to find any that will refresh. Last I get is 3:45.