Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[HurricaneHunter914]

Ernesto still doesn't impress me, one little burst of convection does not signify strengthening IMO.

[fci]

But it might just be a naked swirl in our neighborhood.....

[HurricaneJim]

My money is on the Navy Wave Action Model outlook...through the slot and then up the east FL coast like a rat race all the way to Hatteras...which is where I'll try to grab a piece as it goes by!

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

[SouthFloridawx]

My money is on the Navy Wave Action Model outlook...through the slot and then up the east FL coast like a rat race all the way to Hatteras...which is where I'll try to grab a piece as it goes by!

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

Where do you get that.

[HurricaneHunter914]

One good thing is that it appears the Center has reformed further north so it might escape being over Cuba for a long period of time.

[cpdaman]

this thing may do all 3 of the following

1. actually gain a little strength before it hits cuba

2. spend less time than forecasted over cuba

3. only skirt the east coat of FL peninsula (although i'm not sure if the current 320 heading is supposed to change further west at any time in the next 48 hours) as i dont fully comprehend all the steering factors nor do i beleive anyone is

[HurricaneJim]

Which here it is....

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/PUBLIC/WAM/all_natl.html

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

[HurricaneJim]

I've been using that model for a few years now and it has been spot on every time. Progg'd Katrinas surge to the foot and had Slidel area pegged 3-4 days before NHC.

Same same Ivan and Dennis.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

[miamicanes177]

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO 05L

INITIAL TIME 0Z AUG 28

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 18.1 74.5 320./ 6.0
6 18.9 75.0 326./ 9.5
12 19.9 75.5 335./11.4
18 20.5 76.3 309./ 9.6
24 21.3 76.9 321./ 9.7
30 21.7 77.9 290./10.5
36 22.5 78.8 314./11.6
42 23.5 79.5 324./11.1
48 24.0 80.2 310./ 8.5
54 24.5 80.6 320./ 6.0
60 25.4 80.8 345./ 9.5
66 26.3 81.0 349./ 8.5
72 27.2 80.9 3./ 9.6
78 28.4 80.8 5./11.2
84 29.8 80.8 3./14.8
90 31.1 80.5 9./13.3
96 32.5 80.4 4./13.1
102 33.7 80.5 356./12.3
108 34.9 80.8 347./11.9
114 35.8 81.3 332./10.0
120 36.7 81.7 336./ 9.8
126 38.0 82.4 330./14.1

[TexasSam]

new Guantanamo Bay radar shot:



https://detweb.weather.navy.mil/gtmo/

[HurricaneHunter914]

We'll just have to wait for the diurnal maximum to kick in over night along with the low shear and high SST's. The NHC did say conditions are right for some rapid strengthening before landfall on Cuba so this is a wait and see scenario.

[HurricaneJim]

Those little red spotches to the NW are Rags going over the wall in the confusion.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

[ericinmia]

DAMN... GFDL came east! That brings it almost over my house just looking at the cords. let me find the image...

[HurricaneJim]

Go Navy!

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers

[ericinmia]

This GFDL run I just plotted out is running right up through the center of south florida!

When people come on tomorrow and see that, especially if the 6z and 12z continue the trend... this board is going to crash...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Ernie may not make it folks.

[HurricaneHunter914]

We know, but we still have to keep a close watch. I hope Ernesto can strengthen a bit for his sake.

[Droop12]

This GFDL run I just plotted out is running right up through the center of south florida!

When people come on tomorrow and see that, especially if the 6z and 12z continue the trend... this board is going to crash...

Probably not because its been discussed most of the night I thought, and unless people havent been through a bad thunderstorm before, Im sure they'll be prepared for it.

[CrazyC83]

It could be a two-phase system...degenerate over Cuba then regenerate again over open waters...

[HurricaneJim]

Wait till it gets north over real water again. He'll spool up enough to keep going until he hits the Gulf Stream and then it's rat race time.

Jim
http://www.myspace.com/hurricanejim
http://www.myspace.com/stormchasetroopers