Hurricane Ernesto - Cat. 1

[Thunder44]

422
UZNT13 KNHC 281045
XXAA 78118 99198 70755 04495 99006 24805 35029 00056 24606 36028
92739 21400 03533 85474 19617 35511 88999 77999
31313 09608 81034
61616 AF304 0905A ERNESTO OB 32
62626 EYE SPL 1976N07549W 1035 MBL WND 01024 AEV 20604 DLM WND 02
528 006868 WL150 36027 075 =
XXBB 78118 99198 70755 04495 00006 24805 11883 20005 22850 19617
33845 18816
21212 00006 35029 11996 00525 22988 00526 33976 02019 44967 01527
55958 02525 66948 03036 77938 03032 88902 04534 99895 04029 11881
02529 22871 01019 33868 01519 44845 34509
31313 09608 81034
61616 AF304 0905A ERNESTO OB 32
62626 EYE SPL 1976N07549W 1035 MBL WND 01024 AEV 20604 DLM WND 02
528 006868 WL150 36027 075 =
;

Eye drop from last vortex. Pressure 1006mb but surface winds 29kts

[clfenwi]

SXXX50 KNHC 281120
AF304 0905A ERNESTO HDOB 51 KNHC
1111 1936N 07510W 03339 0158 208 026 068 052 026 03507 0000000000
1111. 1936N 07507W 03631 0176 219 027 048 044 027 03818 0000000000
1112 1935N 07505W 03911 0193 226 029 030 026 030 04115 0000000000
1112. 1935N 07503W 04189 0207 230 030 014 004 030 04411 0000000000
1113 1935N 07501W 04454 0219 235 032 005 015 034 04691 0000000000
1113. 1934N 07458W 04684 0233 241 040 023 029 043 04936 0000000000
1114 1934N 07456W 04904 0249 245 043 035 035 045 05173 0000000000
1114. 1933N 07453W 05141 0264 246 038 045 045 040 05426 0000000000
1115 1933N 07451W 05382 0279 246 038 057 057 040 05682 0000000000
1115. 1933N 07448W 05600 0292 243 039 073 073 040 05914 0000000000
1116 1932N 07446W 05767 0307 254 038 077 077 040 06096 0000000000
1116. 1932N 07443W 05800 0317 256 035 081 081 035 06139 0000000000
1117 1931N 07441W 05801 0332 236 034 087 087 034 06155 0000000000
1117. 1931N 07438W 05778 0331 237 032 077 077 036 06133 0000000000
1118 1931N 07435W 05786 0324 231 034 071 071 036 06132 0000000000
1118. 1930N 07433W 05779 0316 232 030 065 065 033 06118 0000000000
1119 1930N 07430W 05794 0318 229 020 065 065 026 06135 0000000000
1119. 1929N 07428W 05819 0313 234 028 061 061 038 06155 0000000000
1120 1929N 07426W 06010 0322 230 037 073 073 043 06355 0000000000
1120. 1929N 07424W 06204 0333 201 035 083 083 036 06561 0000000000

[Thunder44]

[Thunder44]

The plane is rising in altitude and leaving. The mission is over. They did make one more pass over the center though. Waiting on a VDM for that.

596
URNT11 KNHC 281133
97779 11034 20198 75508 15000 26019 20168 /2489
RMK AF304 0905A ERNESTO OB 34
MARKED ABEAM LANDFALLING CENTER

There may be no VDM since center is making now landfall.

[HenkL]

Last 6 positions from vortex data message. Ernesto is about to make landfall at Cuba.

[cycloneye]

033
WTNT35 KNHC 281152
TCPAT5
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 15A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
800 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...ERNESTO MOVING ONSHORE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CUBA......HEAVY
RAINS...FLOODS...AND MUD SLIDES STILL A SIGNIFICANT THREAT
FOR HISPANIOLA AND EASTERN CUBA...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTHERN PENINSULA OF
FLORIDA FROM DEERFIELD BEACH SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...AND FROM
SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST. A HURRICANE
WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN
REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR
ANDROS ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL HURRICANE WATCHES MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

AT 8 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNINGS FOR THE SOUTHWESTERN
PENINSULA OF HAITI ARE DISCONTINUED.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...LAS TUNAS...AND
CAMAGUEY. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT
EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM EDT...1200Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 19.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.5 WEST. THIS
POSITION IS ON THE COAST OF SOUTHEASTERN CUBA ABOUT 20 MILES...30
KM...WEST OF GUANTANAMO.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THE FORECAST TRACK...ERNESTO WILL BE MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA
TODAY...AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTHERN COAST OF CUBA LATER
TONIGHT OR TUESDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 45 MPH...75
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1005 MB...29.68 INCHES.

STORM TIDES AND WAVES SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH ALONG THE SOUTHERN
COAST OF EASTERN CUBA TODAY.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 800 AM EDT POSITION...19.9 N...75.5 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[jpigott]

anybody know when the next recon mission goes out??

[CronkPSU]

are they allowed to fly over cuba?

[cycloneye]

anybody know when the next recon mission goes out??

Around 10:45 AM EDT plane departs.

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

...ERNESTO MOVING OVER EASTERN CUBA...THREAT OF HEAVY RAINS AND
FLOODING CONTINUES...

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT
OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BIMINI ISLANDS
AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD
ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BIMINIS...AND GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREAS LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...
LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT
EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 20.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 75.7 WEST OR ABOUT 35
MILES... 55 KM...WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUANTANAMO CUBA.

ERNESTO IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE OVER EASTERN CUBA
TODAY AND POSSIBLY EMERGE OFF THE NORTH COAST OF CUBA TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS LIKELY AS
ERNESTO MOVES OVER LAND TODAY...BUT RE-STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED
WHEN THE CENTER MOVES OVER THE WATERS TO THE NORTH OF CUBA.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB...29.71 INCHES.

RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 6 TO 12 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED AMOUNTS
OF UP TO 20 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF HISPANIOLA AND
CENTRAL AND EASTERN CUBA. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES
ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHERN BAHAMAS.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM EDT POSITION...20.3 N...75.7 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1500 UTC MON AUG 28 2006

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED
ALONG THE FLORIDA EAST COAST TO NEW SMYRNA BEACH AND A HURRICANE
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. ALSO...THE GOVERNMENT
OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE BIMINI ISLANDS
AND GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FROM NEW SMYRNA BEACH SOUTHWARD
ON THE FLORIDA EAST COAST...AND FROM SOUTH OF CHOKOLOSKEE SOUTHWARD
ALONG THE WEST COAST...FOR LAKE OKEECHOBEE...AND FOR ALL OF THE
FLORIDA KEYS...FROM OCEAN REEF TO THE DRY TORTUGAS. A HURRICANE
WATCH IS ALSO IN EFFECT FOR ANDROS ISLAND...THE BIMINIS...AND GRAND
BAHAMA ISLAND IN THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS
THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH
AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.

HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE HURRICANE
WATCH AREAS LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WARNING TO A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE CUBAN
PROVINCES OF GUANTANAMO...SANTIAGO DE CUBA...GRANMA... HOLGUIN...
LAS TUNAS...AND CAMAGUEY.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR RAGGED ISLAND AND GREAT
EXUMA IN THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ERNESTO.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 75.7W AT 28/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 325 DEGREES AT 9 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 150SE 60SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.3N 75.7W AT 28/1500Z
AT 28/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 75.5W

FORECAST VALID 29/0000Z 21.5N 76.8W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.
34 KT... 75NE 75SE 20SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 29/1200Z 22.9N 78.5W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...100NE 75SE 30SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/0000Z 24.6N 80.0W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 25SW 30NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 50SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 30/1200Z 26.6N 80.4W...INLAND
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 25SW 25NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 50SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 31/1200Z 31.0N 80.0W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 75SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 01/1200Z 34.0N 77.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 02/1200Z 36.0N 75.0W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.3N 75.7W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 28/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Brent]

[cycloneye]

[Brent]

TROPICAL STORM ERNESTO DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052006
1100 AM EDT MON AUG 28 2006

ERNESTO MADE LANDFALL ON THE SOUTHEASTERN CUBAN COAST NEAR PLAYA
CAZONAL...JUST WEST OF GUANTANAMO...AROUND 1200 UTC. THE CENTER IS
NOW MOVING OVER EXTREME EASTERN CUBA...WHERE THERE IS MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN. SOME MORE WEAKENING IS LIKELY BEFORE THE CENTER MOVES
BACK OVER WATER TO THE NORTH OF CUBA. ONCE THE CENTER EMERGES OVER
WATER...RE-STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY IN A FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL
ENVIRONMENT OF WEAK NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY
FORECAST IS GENERALLY ABOVE THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND CLOSE TO THE
LATEST GFDL FORECAST...AND CALLS FOR A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE
APPROACHING SOUTHEASTERN FLORIDA. HOWEVER IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT
THERE IS LIMITED SKILL IN FORECASTING TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY.

SINCE THE CENTER IS CURRENTLY DIFFICULT TO LOCATE...THE INITIAL
MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 325/9. A SMALL UPPER-LEVEL LOW TO
THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OF ERNESTO MAY BE IMPARTING SOME NORTHWARD
COMPONENT TO THE TROPICAL CYCLONE'S MOTION. DYNAMICAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE UPPER LOW WILL MOVE WESTWARD AND WEAKEN. THIS
SHOULD RESULT IN A LEFTWARD BEND OF THE TRACK IN THE NEAR TERM.
GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES WILL SHIFT
EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS A TROUGH MOVES
IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS WOULD RESULT IN A NORTHWARD TURN OF
ERNESTO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN NUDGED JUST SLIGHTLY
EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS ONE...IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE CURRENT
CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK MODELS.

THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD OVER FLORIDA AND THE
NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS. HURRICANE WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THESE AREAS LATER TODAY.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 28/1500Z 20.3N 75.7W 35 KT
12HR VT 29/0000Z 21.5N 76.8W 35 KT
24HR VT 29/1200Z 22.9N 78.5W 45 KT
36HR VT 30/0000Z 24.6N 80.0W 55 KT
48HR VT 30/1200Z 26.6N 80.4W 70 KT...INLAND
72HR VT 31/1200Z 31.0N 80.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 01/1200Z 34.0N 77.5W 75 KT
120HR VT 02/1200Z 36.0N 75.0W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[ronjon]

The lowest pressure I can find is 29..88 in just to the west of the presumed LLC. Looks like a disorganized shallow system to me. I think it is a TD. Wonder what effect this will have on the ulitmate steering of the TD.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/MUCU.html

[Thunder44]

Richard Knabb from TPC is on CNN now, he says the plane will go out today. It will be flying offshore Cuba today, but it will not be flying over land. They will be watching to see if the center comes offshore.

[cycloneye]

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tro ... OUS42.KNHC

Here is the plan of the day for the next 2 days. They will be very busy.

[mf_dolphin]

are they allowed to fly over cuba?

This largely depends on Cuba's attitude at the time. There have been occasions where overflights of Cuban territory have been permitted but it seems to be the exception instead of the rule. With a system like this I think it's highly unlikely that it would be allowed.

[westmoon]

how far off the coast does the storm have to be before we can fly into it again??

[Thunder44]

Tropical Storm Public Advisory

Statement as of 2:00 PM EDT on August 28, 2006



...Ernesto over eastern Cuba...threat of heavy rains and
flooding continues...

a Hurricane Watch remains in effect from New Smyrna Beach southward
on the Florida East Coast...and from south of Chokoloskee southward
along the West Coast...for Lake Okeechobee...and for all of the
Florida Keys...from Ocean Reef to the Dry Tortugas. A Hurricane
Watch is also in effect for Andros Island...the biminis...and Grand
Bahama Island in the northwestern Bahamas. A Hurricane Watch means
that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch
area...generally within 36 hours.

Hurricane or tropical storm warnings may be required for portions of
the Hurricane Watch areas later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Cuban provinces
of Guantanamo...Santiago de Cuba...Granma... Holguin...Las
Tunas...and Camaguey.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Ragged Island and great
Exuma in the central Bahamas. A Tropical Storm Warning means that
tropical storm conditions are expected within the warning area
within the next 24 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the central and northwestern Bahamas should
monitor the progress of Ernesto.

For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 200 PM EDT...1800z...the poorly-defined center of Tropical Storm
Ernesto was estimated near latitude 20.7 north...longitude 76.1
west or about 15 miles...25 km...east-southeast of Holguin Cuba.

Ernesto is moving toward the northwest near 10 mph...17 km/hr...and
this general motion is expected to continue for the next 24 hours.
On this track the center should emerge off the north coast of Cuba
later today or tonight.
Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts in a few squalls. Ernesto is forecast to begin
re-strengthening when the center moves over the waters to the north
of Cuba later today or tonight.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
from the center.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb...29.74 inches.

Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches...with possible isolated amounts
of up to 20 inches...are expected over portions of Hispaniola and
central and eastern Cuba. These rains could cause life-threatening
flash floods and mud slides. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches
are possible over the southern Bahamas.

Repeating the 200 PM EDT position...20.7 N...76.1 W. Movement
toward...northwest near 10 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1007 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 500 PM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Pasch