Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[conestogo_flood]

Just a question, not wischasting. If Eneresto moves NE and runs along the East Coast, wouldn't it hit New York City?

[Thatsmrhurricane]

If it regains hurricane status and goes over south florida, could it continue to strengthen over the everglades? It would still be over very warm water...

Probably just won't weaken..

Katrina slightly strengthend over the Glades...

Please correct me if I'm wrong, but does not latency have an impact here? As in the current conditions of the storm will not be seen until later?

[cpdaman]

does anyone know how to get an update of this graphic?

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc0 ... atest.html

please

[shaggy]

actually current projected path for landfall is a good one since it will make landfall over sparsely populated areas of south florida and may limit any damages and destruction.Here in NC it looks to make landfall just on the eastern shore of bogue banks which is more populated and tourist area.Of course this track will change again and it could be further east if it does as long as a blocking high doesnt form to the NE of the storm when it leaves florida then i think we will be ok.

[JPmia]

actually current projected path for landfall is a good one since it will make landfall over sparsely populated areas of south florida and may limit any damages and destruction.Here in NC it looks to make landfall just on the eastern shore of bogue banks which is more populated and tourist area.Of course this track will change again and it could be further east if it does as long as a blocking high doesnt form to the NE of the storm when it leaves florida then i think we will be ok.

You were not here for Wilma...although hitting the SW FL coast with almost zero pop. we got nailed over on the East coast...that path would impact the entire tri-county metro pop. of over 5 million people. That is a worst case path for a strong storm over SE FL.

[Eyewall]

Can someone give some reasons why this thing would survive the NHC's track without weakening..

[ConvergenceZone]

I'm estamating Ernesto at 20.1, if it maintains NW movement he should reach N coast of Cuba 4-4.5 hours. Approx 40-50 miles of land left!

Yep but just MAYBE, JUsT MAYBE, it misses SE Florida to the east

Well, if this misses Florida to the east, this will be an east coast storm, and this isn't good news as it will get the torm more time to strengthen.

[Sanibel]

NRL updates periodically. You have to wait for them to post the new graphic.

[boca]

It would probably be a TD and I'm thinking because of Ernesto's movements the track will again shift east because Ernesto is moving basically north.

[ConvergenceZone]

Can someone give some reasons why this thing would survive the NHC's track without weakening..

well, it's not going to be over cuba very long, and yet it still might be a tropical depression and have an LLC. If that happens, then it may intensify rapidly, just as the NHC has said.... If it's just a wave, then it will be much harder, may only be a depression or weak storm when it makes landfall, and that's only if it gets the LLC back.

[Thatsmrhurricane]

Can someone give some reasons why this thing would survive the NHC's track without weakening..

Honestly, no. Intensity guidance does not. The path up the coast would seem to put a cap on intensification from a common sense point of view. I think the NHC maybe getting everyones attention . . . just in case.

[Sanibel]

I'm not sure it's moving north. You could be seeing a central convective core being released by a shattered surface feature. The Cuban radar is worthless on weak tropical storms.

[BUD]

I'm estamating Ernesto at 20.1, if it maintains NW movement he should reach N coast of Cuba 4-4.5 hours. Approx 40-50 miles of land left!

Yep but just MAYBE, JUsT MAYBE, it misses SE Florida to the east

Well, if this misses Florida to the east, this will be an east coast storm, and this isn't good news as it will get the torm more time to strengthen.

Yep,would not be good here.The local mets are talking about a Bonnie type storm here.Where it stalled out for days.

[Eyewall]

Can someone give some reasons why this thing would survive the NHC's track without weakening..

Honestly, no. Intensity guidance does not. The path up the coast would seem to put a cap on intensification from a common sense point of view. I think the NHC maybe getting everyones attention . . . just in case.

yea that sounds like what is happening.
also there seems to be some shear to the north, and dry air.
would you say that a strong TS is most likely?

[tgenius]

I imagine by 5 or 8pm, the watches would be upgraded to Warnings...

[Blown Away]

Currently Ernesto is approximately 4.5 degrees E and 6.5 degrees S of WPB, that would mean a NNW motion would have to occur to miss SFL. Erny has been full of surprises, but I can't see that much N movement given its current location and time of year. Hurricane David was at 20.6/74.6 or about 60 miles E Ernesto rate now, David skirted along FL E coast. Given Ernesto is at 75.5 the track now is about 60 miles W of David's as it nears FL. It's going to be tough to miss FL now, question will be how strong, if he comes in between FTL and Ft. Pierce that would give more time over the Gulf Stream to strengthen. The forecast track of the 2 are very similar, IMO.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/hurri ... 197904.asp

[Sanibel]

The reason you are seeing the center vortex on the top of the CDO jerk back west in the last frames is because the surface center is more to the SW and headed right down the middle of Cuba. I think the north jump is illusion. This could spell the end of ole Ernesto.

[cpdaman]

the south east quad is now firing very well (no longer infuenced by haiti) and the storm appears to be maintaining its own

lets all pray this takes the longer road over cuba

however the infared representation is decent lets see if convection fires on north coast of cuba or if the mountain continue to erode nw quadrant

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-avn.html

[skufful]

I'm estamating Ernesto at 20.1, if it maintains NW movement he should reach N coast of Cuba 4-4.5 hours. Approx 40-50 miles of land left!

Yep but just MAYBE, JUsT MAYBE, it misses SE Florida to the east

Well, if this misses Florida to the east, this will be an east coast storm, and this isn't good news as it will get the torm more time to strengthen.

Yep,would not be good here.The local mets are talking about a Bonnie type storm here.Where it stalled out for days.

If it misses the FL coast, don't you think it will still recurve, and miss all SE land masses.

[boca]

If Ernesto rides the spine of Cuba it will be a wave hitting Florida not a storm.