Ernesto,Analysis,Sat Pics,Models Thread #3

[JPmia]

While I think that Ernesto is most certainly a TD this morning (no data suggest otherwise), I do think that there is quite a potential for it to become a major hurricane over the Gulf Stream east of the Carolinas on Friday as it's blocked by high pressure moving off the New England coast. Too soon to tell how far offshore it'll be at that time. Could be like Ophelia and just graze the Outer Banks of NC before finally heading out to sea early next week.

What is your opinion about its potential once it leaves Cuba and moves toward SE FL? I am curious to know what the Pro-Mets think about the impact FL will receive..if anything at all.

[gatorcane]

For anyone underestimating this system remember in 1999 all the flooding that Irene caused in South Florida as a weak hurricane. Remember that we have had a very rainy week and the ground over most of South Florida is saturated with water, and Ernesto shouldn't be moving very fast over the area. Therefore, I would expect at this point Ernesto to be more of a rain threat to South Florida than a wind one.

No I still think a wind threat is in store since the env conditions for strenthening will be near PERFECT when it emerges off of Cuba.

Wind and rain threat.

[THead]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/rgb-l.jpg

Center could be closer to 20.5N 74W? We need recon bad.

Looks like it may be even further south than that, like around 19.5, judging by the navy site.

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/tc06/ATL/05L.ERNESTO/vis/geo/1km_zoom/full/Latest.html

[wxman57]

While I think that Ernesto is most certainly a TD this morning (no data suggest otherwise), I do think that there is quite a potential for it to become a major hurricane over the Gulf Stream east of the Carolinas on Friday as it's blocked by high pressure moving off the New England coast. Too soon to tell how far offshore it'll be at that time. Could be like Ophelia and just graze the Outer Banks of NC before finally heading out to sea early next week.

What is your opinion about its potential once it leaves Cuba and moves toward SE FL? I am curious to know what the Pro-Mets think about the impact FL will receive..if anything at all.

I cautiously forecast a small pocket of 75 mph wind as it moves ashore near Homestead. Not as gung-ho on intensification as the NHC, as it'll be a TD when it emerges off the north coast of Cuba rather than a 55kt TS as the NHC is indicating. But conditions get much more favorable for intensification as Ernesto moves northward and is blocked by that high.

Effects over Florida may be mostly heavy rain, and the center could pass east of Miami. It's the SC/NC coast that could really get a bad storm if Ernesto "pulls an Ophelia" close to the coast. I'm thinking Dennis of 1999....

[HURAKAN]

[jpigott]

wxman - how far east off the coast of MIA do you think this may go? I live in northern palm beach county and we jut out further west than MIA, do you think it could track farther east than the WPB area??

[gatorcane]

While I think that Ernesto is most certainly a TD this morning (no data suggest otherwise), I do think that there is quite a potential for it to become a major hurricane over the Gulf Stream east of the Carolinas on Friday as it's blocked by high pressure moving off the New England coast. Too soon to tell how far offshore it'll be at that time. Could be like Ophelia and just graze the Outer Banks of NC before finally heading out to sea early next week.

What is your opinion about its potential once it leaves Cuba and moves toward SE FL? I am curious to know what the Pro-Mets think about the impact FL will receive..if anything at all.

I cautiously forecast a small pocket of 75 mph wind as it moves ashore near Homestead. Not as gung-ho on intensification as the NHC, as it'll be a TD when it emerges off the north coast of Cuba rather than a 55kt TS as the NHC is indicating. But conditions get much more favorable for intensification as Ernesto moves northward and is blocked by that high.

Effects over Florida may be mostly heavy rain, and the center could pass east of Miami. It's the SC/NC coast that could really get a bad storm if Ernesto "pulls an Ophelia" close to the coast. I'm thinking Dennis of 1999....

excellent points but if you look at the last 12 hours Ernesto is really trying to get organized despite Cuba (convection is expaning out, colder cloud tops)......I hope you are right and it is weak here....

[wxman57]

I don't see many signs of organization. Looks like a weak to moderate TD, as supported by recon and surface data. Here's a good surface plot with a visible satellite overlay and the center located.

http://myweb.cableone.net/nolasue/ernesto50.gif

[kenl01]

I'm not so sure conditions are that perfect once in the FL Straits. On a discussion per Nexrad in the analysis forum, dry air entrainment and even possible shear might not favor significant strengthening.

http://66.98.251.192/phpbb2/viewtopic.p ... fc77723f4a

[Evil Jeremy]

it seems to be strengthing, but is it really?

[gatorcane]

I'm not so sure conditions are that perfect once in the FL Straits. On a discussion per Nexrad in the analysis forum, dry air entrainment and even possible shear might not favor significant strengthening.

http://66.98.251.192/phpbb2/viewtopic.p ... fc77723f4a

hopefully, the NHC seems to think they will be. I hope you are right.

[gatorcane]

it seems to be strengthing, but is it really?

Evil Jeremy I really have to give you credit man. YOU CALLED a South Florida hit days and days ago when it was in the Eastern Caribbean.....

Great Job man!!!

[ConvergenceZone]

While I think that Ernesto is most certainly a TD this morning (no data suggest otherwise), I do think that there is quite a potential for it to become a major hurricane over the Gulf Stream east of the Carolinas on Friday as it's blocked by high pressure moving off the New England coast. Too soon to tell how far offshore it'll be at that time. Could be like Ophelia and just graze the Outer Banks of NC before finally heading out to sea early next week.

thanx for the update! Let's hope it just grazes it and doesn't come closer.

Dusty

[cpdaman]

ya truly everyone gave u poop and called it "-removed-" now they are -removed- it won't be a wind event

[Sanibel]

I don't see any reason to hope for a weak TD that gets dragged across that much of Cuba.

[cpdaman]

WXMAN based on that plot u showed that would be only a change of .1 degree latitude north in 2 hours?

[gatorcane]

I'm seeing some stair-stepping going on with what I think is the center, a NNW jog earlier and the last few frames I see more of a WNW to NW heading...shouldn't be over Cuba very long.

Heights across South Florida and the Bahamas seem fairly strong but not that strong as evident by some decent Easterly windflow off the SE FL coast this morning....

So I would expect a NW to even WNW heading to resume once it gets into the straits

[Bane]

It's the SC/NC coast that could really get a bad storm if Ernesto "pulls an Ophelia" close to the coast. I'm thinking Dennis of 1999....

That's not a very nice comment to make , though it seems plausible as the nws in wilmington is saying the same thing.

[Sanibel]

As I said when this was by Grenada - The key is watching the convection. It will tell you how much strength this has.

[CocoCreek]

Bryan Norcross, on CBS4 in Miami is on, (special news coverage) and said it hasn't been said enough that this is the real deal and has the potential to be worse than hurricane Wilma was last year for some part of the SE FL area.